[5nl] AKs, OOP, 3bet pot. Turn shove...

Villain is 22/21/3 (3bet) through 116 hands. Folded to 3bet 80%, 4/5. Fold to cbet, 100%, 1/1.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: $8.22
CO: $7.02
BTN: $4.14
SB: $8.34
Hero (BB): $5.14
UTG: $12.43

SB posts SB $0.02, Hero posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has A:spade: K:spade:

fold, fold, CO raises to $0.15, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.55, CO calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.12, 2 players) 5:spade: J:diamond: K:diamond:
Hero bets $0.55, CO raises to $1.10, Hero calls $0.55

Turn: ($3.32, 2 players) 9:club:
Hero checks, CO bets $5.37 and is all-in, Hero ???

I really wanted to call this but felt like I was massively behind.

When he doesn't fold to 3bet I put him on TT+, AQs+, maybe some other broadways like KJ.

Min/r on flop....not really sure what that meant so I decided to call and see a turn.

9:club: isn't that bad of a card I thought, and he shoves? I have to be beat now and if not the best I can hope for is a split pot?

I put a range I thought villain could have at this point and got

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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,332 games 0.000 secs 466,400 games/sec

Board: 5s Kd Jd 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.904% 26.24% 05.66% 612 132.00 { AsKs }
Hand 1: 68.096% 62.44% 05.66% 1456 132.00 { AA, QQ-JJ, 55, AKs, AdQd, AdTd, KJs+, QTs, AKo, KJo+, QTo }


I think with the range I have given villain I am just about getting the right odds to call? Unless my maths is wrong and that is a big possibility.

Thoughts?

Bet much bigger on the flop.
As played, fold.

edit: also, about the math(s)... he bet more than the pot, you need like ~ 40% to call

there is pretty much only one potsized bet left in the effective stacks so you'll need 33% to call. i'm probably folding the turn, and vs a MR from this player on the flop i almost feel like making a hugely exploitable fold. i cant see him minraising us with worse than a chop given his stats. looks like a tightish but bad regular looking to get paid off on a monster more than someone who has no idea that they cant value-raise KQ here. i could definitely be way off though

Yeah it's definitely a tough spot. As played I think you have to fold, but I would make my bet on the flop much bigger than a min-raise. There are so many scare cards that can come on the turn

Hmm, OK. My standard cbet after a 3bet is around half the pot, it used to be bigger until someone told me I was cbetting too big ( used to be between 2/3 and 3/4 of the pot ). Now, I'm cbetting too small, not really sure what to do now I guess.

@dev - He has bet 5.37 but I only had ~$3.50 left in my stack. Not sure if you noticed that so just pointing it out.

@rpm - I really didn't like the min/r either but I just couldn't see how I could fold to that.

@sam - I think I probably felt too comfortable on the flop as I didn't think it looked too dangerous.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

@rpm - I really didn't like the min/r either but I just couldn't see how I could fold to that.

.

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you're thinking too much about absolute hand strength and not relative hand strength, at least so it seems. what do you think his range is when he calls your PF 3bet? what part of that do you think he minraises you with on the flop (noting that his stats indicate he knows enough about tight/aggressive strategy and actually seems like somewhat of a nit postflop)? i really cant see AK faring too well against that range. you seem like you dont want to fold because you have TPTK and he only minraised you. but there is no need to worry about making exploitable folds if you feel your opponents range isnt actually composed in a way that exploits you (ie if the bottom of his minraising range here is AK, you're not being exploited)

i think the above advice is true IF my assessment of villains ranges are accurate, if others who actually play poker decide he has enough bluffs or worse value hands to take a different line, then go for it. but i think the general points about exploitation etc are valid and relevant to even microstakes

I'd fold the flop, since:

- villain's stats strongly suggest he isn't going to bluff in a 3bp. In general, villain's at the micros don't muck around in 3b pots either.
- the board connects well with his 3b calling range
- the board connects well with your 3betting range (assuming you don't 3bet like a monkey), meaning he'd have to be insane to bluff raise here. Again, his stats make this highly unlikely.
- the Pokerstove numbers (I'd take out a few combos from your analysis though).
- experience. I've wasted a whole bunch of buy-ins calling in these spots and then wondering why the hell I didn't just fold the flop. As rpm says, you have absolute strength but not much relative strength given the action. Most of the time, the min-raise at the micros is the nuts by bad players that don't know how to get stacks in effectively but are desperately trying to sucker you in to seeing one more card.

Finally, half pot cbet as standard is fine imo in a 3bp, as we can still get stacks in over 3 streets and save a few bb when we face resistance with air. As always though, "it depends" - if villain is a huge station for example, you flop a set and the board connects with his range, go big (e.g. jj on an aj4 rainbow flop). Board texture is also important of course.

OK guys, thanks a lot for the advice.

I think I called the min/r more because I couldn't quite work out what it was supposed to mean, i.e really strong or a super weak bluff, as opposed to the strength of my hand.

I'd get it in on the flop, villain repping a narrow range

You could also call and probably never fold turn

but yea, not folding TPTK in a 3bet pot 100bb deep against someone with >20 VPIP/PFR

Feels a lot like AXdd

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bigspenda73

I'd get it in on the flop, villain repping a narrow range

You could also call and probably never fold turn

but yea, not folding TPTK in a 3bet pot 100bb deep against someone with >20 VPIP/PFR

Feels a lot like AXdd

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Why do you want to get it in on flop if villain is repping a narrow range? As someone posted earlier, our best chance might only be a split pot.

Also, are you aware it's 6max? >20 VPIP/PFR is pretty common.

should have said repping a narrow value range, he can have bluffs/semi-bluffs right?

and yes, >20/20 is common, but it also contains enough hands from the CO that are opening and defending a 3bet that we can continue profitably against. Also, is it possible he's even folding hands like 55/KJ PF making his value raising range even smaller here?

flop is close, cbet sizing is fine
turn i don't think you're good enough to call here

Table image and villain's positional awareness stats are more important than most the stats you listed. If there's any reason whatsoever to think that he's playing light here (we've 3b him in a similar spot before, eg), then his value range is so narrow that we have to call.

If we have a pristine clean image and we're sure villain is the standard weaktight 5nl reg, then sure I guess it's a close fold.

As for sizing in a 100bb 3b pot, the SPR is generally setup so that you have two choices for sizing are 1/2 pot, 1/2 pot, shove, or full pot, shove. That's an approximation, a generalization and an oversimplification all in one (you can take some non-standard tiny bets and such too, for example), but generally going 2/3-3/4 with this SPR leaves you with awkward remaining stack sizes. When someone said to you in another thread, "You should be smaller," they should have said, "If you're trying to leave 3 streets of non-awkward betting, you have to bet smaller."