[5NL] JJ against LAG, river decision...

Villain is 32/20/6 through 325 hands. Fold to 3bet, 56%. Doesn't seem positionally aware, playing 35% of hands UTG. Fold to cbet, 65%.

Notes on villain: Had seen villain defend BB with 32s. C/c flop with bottom pair, check turn, and attempt a bluff on river, around 1/2 PSB.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: $16.00
BB: $5.00
UTG: $7.49
Hero (MP): $7.03
CO: $5.44
BTN: $5.40

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has J:spade: J:club:

UTG raises to $0.15, Hero raises to $0.50, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls $0.35

Flop: ($1.07, 2 players) 9:club: A:club: 4:heart:
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.55, UTG calls $0.55

Turn: ($2.17, 2 players) A:spade:
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($2.17, 2 players) 2:spade:
UTG bets $1.85, Hero ???

Felt like I opened the door for him to bluff the river when I checked the turn, I have no idea why I did that either as I thought it unlikely that he had an A given how wide his range is.

Can he be bluffing here with some stupid 9x or a busted FD or is it an easy fold?

The folds to cb 65% would have me a little worried. I can't help thinking you're beat here far too often.

His sizing makes me want to fold.

fold river nh

I bet the turn because the A makes it less likely he has one in his hand. Checking is fine too to get value on the river if you can bet, but after his bet due to your turn check you don't know where you stand anymore so I'd fold.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jackvance

I bet the turn because the A makes it less likely he has one in his hand. Checking is fine too to get value on the river if you can bet, but after his bet due to your turn check you don't know where you stand anymore so I'd fold.

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Yeah I did make a point of how awful it was to check the turn, definitely the biggest mistake in the hand.

I'd be more inclined to call if the board was kings paired, rather than the aces. The problem with the aces is that they smash into his 3bet calling range and villains also chk/snap fold ace high flops more often than not, particularly in 3b pots. Therefore the likelihood of Ax is high, but you also need to ask yourself a question like the following in these spots:

- "why would a villain with showdown value bet this size in this spot after chk/calling the flop?".

I know 5nl villains do some spazzy things, but the answer to that question means we need to find a fold and we can feel good about it, as not many 5nl players can fold in that spot.

In reality, I bet the turn and give up river as we are going to want to be barrelling all of our Ax in those spots and not play too face-up. If we bet/fold half pot on turn, we also make things cheaper for ourselves if we can't help but make a crying call on the river (one of my major leaks).