[10NL] Q-High Flush OTT; Doomed OTR?

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($10.30) 103bb
UTG+1 ($10.18) 102bb
CO ($12.65) 127bb - VPIP:21, PFR:13, 3B:2, FcB:1/1, AF:2.3, Hands:99
BTN ($3.87) 39bb - VPIP:52, PFR:4, 3B:3, FcB:2/7, AF:0.9, Hands:108
SB ($3.98) 40bb
DoubleJ (BB) ($13.80) 138bb

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) DoubleJ is BB :qs: :js:
2 folds, CO raises to $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, 1 fold, DoubleJ calls $0.20

i'm getting 3.75:1 on my call and BTN is a 52/4 Fish.

Flop: :9s: :3s: :2d: ($0.95, 3 players)
DoubleJ bets $0.90, CO calls $0.90, BTN calls $0.90

I lead out here w/ FD + 2 overs, looking to get it all in v BTN if i hit, but CO comes along as well.

I put him on FDs, mebbe an OESD, mebbe a few PPs?

Turn: :8s: ($3.65, 3 players)

OK, so i've hit, but now what? i can bet for value vs. BTN as i'm massivley ahead of his likely calling range, but CO's continuing range is ~75% A-High or K-High Flushes now.

If he did float some PPs, there's a decent chance that he'll fold these now leaving me HU w/ BTN, so i bet. Spewy?

DoubleJ bets $2.90, CO calls $2.90, BTN folds

O bollocks.

River: :5s: ($9.45, 2 players)
DoubleJ ???

O bollocks, part 2. I beat about 1 combo out of 13 here.

From his POV, if he opened with KsXs pre, he'd have about 28% equity vs. {AsJs,AsTs,As6s,As4s,As2s,QsJs,QsTs} and a shove would need a breakeven of 32%, but i don't think he's folding 2nd Nuts here.

The river is just kind of like whoops, but the rest of the hand seems fine. I kind of disagree about his turn range, but you can come talk to me about it in the FTR CHAT ROOM (no download needed) if you want.

Check and reevaluate the situation but probably fold in river to any bet of CO

I prefer check calling here for a few reasons, 1) i don't wan't to get blown off my hand here so early by c/o and btn can jam pretty wide and you won't have the right price to call even though he's very short. and 2) i would like to keep it multi way and keep the fish in the hand.

As played i would of lead smaller and drawn cheaper, it also gives you a better price on your bluffs, Not so important here as you don't have any pure bluffs when you lead.

I think bet flop bet turn and the river is a check fold.


M.I.B

i'd probably check the flop. try to trap the fish' money in the pot after the reg CB's. i definitely don't hate leading though. i imagine both are +EV as long as you're not prone to making spewy triples in spots with low/no FE (like i am).

turn lead i definitely think is best. we get value from the regs overpair/high spade hands, and tons of value from the fish.

once we get to the river with the reg i'm definitely checking. i think it's too thin now to bet for value now - a decent chunk of villain's range now has us beat (and i can't see him calling us down too light given our line). pretty confident that C/F is better than C/C too because (as mentioned) lots of shit now beats us, and a lot of hands that we beat will probably be keen to get to showdown (as opposed to bluffing us)

interesting hand

ps i've edited/re-written this whole post because i missed stack sizes. don't think i've paid enough attention the details of a HH on this site since 'nam

I think the river is a c/f as I don't see him turning his hands into a bluff here and he's likely only jamming better spades. His line makes me think he has a hand with showdown value or he would have folded much earlier so I think he would lean more towards checking back such hands. This of course is assuming no reads other than stats. I like the flop lead as it disguises your hand if you hit and you setup a big pot if you hit. If you bet on this 4 flush river I don't see him calling with worse like ever. Correct me if I'm wrong. C/f river gg sir wp.

how come no one has considered betting very small

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

how come no one has considered betting very small

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You can vary bet sizes?!?!?!

http://i.imgur.com/MLezO.gif

flop smaller? turn a little bigger? river $2?