25nl: King high flush facing rvr jam, paired board

This is a pretty clear fold, right?

My thinking was that villain conceivably plays flopped sets and turned boats/quads this way and I don't see any flush draws in villains range beyond maybe 89hh and AQhh (and he may not even jam these on this board facing action - likewise Tx).

Villain doesn't seem particularly good and running at 31/22/7 (3b) over 400 hands. Flop and turn fold stats are in the 65%-70% range and villain isn't aggressive in terms of raising cbets. I've also seen villain check down a broadway board in position with initiative so I think he is fairly passive. This is the first time that villain has faced a river cbet.

Also grateful for guidance on sizing.

Hero (UTG) ($41.01)
MP ($44.63)
Button ($26.49)
SB ($24.21)
BB ($16.87)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif
Hero bets $0.75, 1 fold, Button calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.85) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $1.25, Button calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.35) 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $2.50, Button calls $2.50

River: ($9.35) 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $7.25, Button raises $21.99 (All-In)

Sizing maybe slightly bigger otf but otherwise I think it's fine.

Do you open 3x pre from all positions?

River meh, other than your river sizing he has no reason to put you on a flush and he only needs to be doing that with 7 or 8 combos of trips or 8h9h for a call to be breakeven. But since you bet 50-65% on flop and turn and closer to pot on river, this should give him reason to be worried about a flush if he has trips. Also he'll sometimes raise trips ott.

I think I call. I'm not psyched but I don't think we can fold a hand this strong. Surly villain can be doing this with worse for value or with some missed draws as well as his boats and quads. Seems like a great place to bluff to me, I'd prolly consider turning a jack into a bluff here. Sucks that you think villain sucks.

True it's also a spot to bluff, but if I were villain I probably wouldn't do it given hero's river sizing and the good odds hero has to call. I'd certainly not do it without holding the Ah.

I don't think the nut flysh blocker matters that much, I wouldn't be trying to fold out a flush. Put an overpair in Hero's hand he prolly plays it the same (you might be right about Hero's sizing for river) if you feel you rep a flush here and villain won't try to raise 10x/flushes them fine go ahead and fold.

You're not trying to fold out a flush, but you having the Ah means that hero is much less likely to have one and call.

hero doesnt actually have that many AhXh hands in his range mebbe 3.
having the Ah defo would help sway me to bluffing this river but i dont think id need it; hearts was a backdoor the likelyhood of hero having hearts is small.
its pretty obv by river that; vs heros range id be crushed with only a jack so bluffing time as the only hands id get to the river with are Jx QQ+ 10x boats quads and flushes. QKs and 89s prolly would also be in my bluffing range (as hero gave us a pretty great price on turn) but thats not a whole lotta combos.

that all said hero should bet/fold a little more on turn mebbe 3.1-3.3. mebbe even more

btw im smashed

I'd bet/fold river but I haven't played in forever. If 25NL players are good enough to bluff raise here then fuck

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kmind

If 25NL players are good enough to bluff raise here then fuck

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Amen brother.

lol this is not party poker 2002

do you bet/fld the nut flush too what about 66