ISOing range versus Station

OK, so we have this guy on our right:-

VP 53, PF 4 AGG 1.4 3B 2, F3B 0 (0/3)
L/Fold 57 L/Call 41 L/Raise 2
FcB Flop 33 (10/30)
FcB Turn 75 (3/4)
FcB River 100 (1/1)


(160ish hand sample)

What kind of range should we be considering to best exploit this guy?

We're not going to be cBet-bluffing many flops, so we don't want too many hands that rely on fold equity postflop, however, he will be folding to ISO raises a fair bit pre, so presumably we don't want to limit our opportunities by having too narrow a range.

Thoughts?

Also:-
* what do we need to beware of from Players to our right?
* are there spots where ISOing is not the best strategy?

Villain's total starting range is ~57%, so Hero can over-limp IP with ATC for value. (Assuming everyone else folds and Hero's HU against this villain. Clearly, this is not the case very often, so there is no reason to let this villain's starting range have too great an effect on yours, except in BvB situations. Limping IP is verboten in my book, so my ranges haven't really been affected by a single fish on my right unless it's folded to him, then I can basically always raise him (but that would be obvious, so I'd just widen my ranges being conscious of who's left to act behind).

Villain limp/folds 57%, or has a FTC ratio of ( 57%/(1 - 57%) = ) 1.3. So basically, Hero can raise ATC as a bluff PRE based on fold equity alone.

When Villain limp/raises, Hero can only reasonably 4-bet jam for value with KK+, as Villain's 2% 3-bet is { JJ+ } or { TT+ } at the widest or { KK+,AK }. With these hands in Villain's range, he is quite likely to be willing to stack off on most boards, so there's no reason to be jamming PRE. In fact, there's no reason to be raising pre, because Villain folds too much and Hero wants to play post flop IP against Villain with Hero's best hands.

Villain's limp/call range is basically any 2 suited cards, any PP, any double broadway, and a lot of OSC and offsuit 9x, where x>9.

Quote:

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equilab
Hand range with equity greater than 50.00 %:
{ 33+,A2s+,K6s+,Q8s+,J9s+,A3o+,K9o+,QTo+,JTo }

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According to equilab, you can raise to ISO ridiculously wide against Villain's limp/calling range. That's over 30% wide, and for that you get a whopping 50% equity, which is way more than you need against this guy PRE.

With 33% fold to C-bet OTF and 75% fold to C-bet OTT, that's only (66% * 25% = ) 16.5% (~1/6) of his hands that he sees a river with, so I don't know why you're afraid to fire 2 barrels against this guy as a bluff when your hand lacks showdown value. Better still might be to check behind OTF and fire your C-bet bluffs OTT. See how he reacts to that. If he still folds 75% of his hands, then bluff like a mad man OTT.

Thanks Moj', you crazy Eurotard you :)

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

With 33% fold to C-bet OTF and 75% fold to C-bet OTT, that's only (66% * 25% = ) 16.5% (~1/6) of his hands that he sees a river with, so I don't know why you're afraid to fire 2 barrels against this guy as a bluff when your hand lacks showdown value.

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It's not a matter of fear, just confusion - i've always been told "don't bluff the fish", so his preflop and flop tendencies seem contradictory. And OTT is a 4 hand sample.

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

Villain limp/folds 57%, or has a FTC ratio of ( 57%/(1 - 57%) = ) 1.3. So basically, Hero can raise ATC as a bluff PRE based on fold equity alone.

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i don't understand this - can you explain a bit more plizz?

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i don't understand this - can you explain a bit more plizz?

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Say you're heads up oop in the bb against him, he limps in the sb and you raise to 3x, and he folds 57% of the time. Pretend that when he calls you always loose. Then your EV is:
- 57% of the time he folds and your profit is 2bb
- 43% of the time he continues and your loss is 2bb

so EV = 0.57*2bb - 0.42*2bb = 0.3bb

So even if you always loose when he calls, you still make a profit just with your fold equity.

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Originally Posted by daviddem

EV = 0.57*2bb - 0.42*2bb = 0.3bb

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Thx, i get the calc; trouble is, MMM appears to be presenting it as a one-size-fits-all solution, whereas, it's only the scenario you use as ur example that holds true.

e.g. if he open-limps in from CO and i ISO to 5bb (my "standard"), then

EV = 0.57*2.5 - 0.43*5 = -0.725

I'd have to drop my ISO raise to 3.3bb in this spot to make it +EV in a vacuum; is this something i should be considering?

yes, if you consider your iso as a pure bluff you should bet the smallest amount for which he will fold at his usual rate.

In practice it is of course more complicated than that because
1) the blinds are there and if you bet too small they'll tag along a lot
2) you're not betting as a pure bluff most of the time
3) you don't always loose post flop
4) even if you get called with the worse hand you can still outplay him post flop

As for MMM, I figure his FTC is the fold to call ratio but I am not sure what that tells him as obviously the EV calc depends on the positions, bet sizes, etc.

The shortcut to calculate a pure bluff is bet/(bet+pot). If villain folds more than that ratio, then the bluff is profitable (not taking rake into account). In your example above:
bet=5bb
pot=2.5bb

So he has to fold more than 66.67% for your pure bluff to be profitable.

... Oi! ... ?

It's not "Don't bluff the fish." It's "Don't bluff calling stations." There are all kinds of fish. I didn't notice that turn stat was only on a 4 hand sample until after I'd posted, so grain of salt.

FTC is Fold To Continue. Read all about it.

I agree, daviddem, that the EV calc is more important to consider. I was just speeding through the analysis intuitively, as I would at a table. As such, doing a quick FTC calc. is easy and gives a quick sense of Villain's balance in a given situation.

It's not a one size fits all solution, for sure, but I made some assumptions about your bet sizing and also I assumed that you were a good enough player post-flop (given this thread) that you can make up for some minor -EV spots PRE in the post-flop game, especially since Hero is IP.

As for the assumptions about bet sizing, yes, they were massive, and I'm glad daviddem dug a little deeper into it.

I don't see the pure-bluff calc as directly relevant. Definitely relevant, but Hero is NEVER making a pure bluff, except maybe OTT or OTR.

Hero is too strong a player to be consistently outplayed OTF by this villain in this scenario. Also, Villain's limp/call range is super wide, and Hero can widen up to his BTN steal range (without QQ+) and still be ahead of Villain's calling range.

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Originally Posted by DoubleJ

What kind of range should we be considering to best exploit this guy?

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I tend to go a little bit looser than normal for the relevant position on the basis that we should be able to outplay this dude in position post-flop with more marginal hands than normal. It also means we're more than likely to nab his stack before another reg wins it.

Who is left to act is really important though. It's rare at the micros, but some players will spot if you're over iso-ing and start 3-betting like a monkey and force you to tighten up.

yah adjustments at microstakes from the more perceptive opponents tend to be pretty big ones. easy to exploit (the reg) but harder for us to play vs the fish because reg sees us isoing a heap and starts 3betting us without any real awareness of his own range. i used to do this a lot and get absolutely crushed (edit: this was at 50nl 6m at a time when preflop aggro wars were all the rage. may not still hold true)

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Originally Posted by rpm

...and starts 3betting us without any real awareness of his own range...

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errrmmm...could you exapnd on this a bit plizz?