[10NL] Top two vs whale and rock - Action from the wrong one.

UTG is 52/21 megawhale with a 60% cbet. Very passive postflop, but will call down with any top pair or draw.

Button is 12/8 after 100 hands. He seems like a classic set miner. 8% steal so far and 3% 3bet.

I checked the flop hoping to trap a cbet + float from the button, but given how passive and stationy UTG plays, and how uninterested the button seems with small pots I probably should have donk-lead.

That aside, whats my plan for the hand now it looks like the button caught something? 9Ts seems like the bottom of his stacking off range here.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, €0.10 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com
SB (€27.35)
Hero (BB) (€11.09)
UTG (€13.03)
MP (€10)
CO (€17.12)
Button (€10)
Preflop: Hero is BB with :th:, :9h:
UTG bets €0.30, 2 folds, Button calls €0.30, 1 fold, Hero calls €0.20
Flop: (€0.95) :td:, :3h:, :9s: (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets €0.20, Button raises to €1.50, Hero?

Let it go.

I hope by let it go you mean... raise?

utg bets like 1/5 pot, villain can be raising so many pairs here and 3% 3b just means he has waay more overpairs here vs an utg open. This nit can definitely have JJ-KK here.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by griffey24

I hope by let it go you mean... raise?

utg bets like 1/4 pot, villain can be raising so many pairs here and 3% 3b just means he has waay more overpairs here vs an utg open. This night can definitely have JJ-KK here.

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Nope. I meant fold. I think your argument is valid but I don't think he has JJ-KK as his 3bet range is never polarized and is always 3betting these hands. Maybe he flats JJ??? Iunno.

Realistically I think he's an unimaginative player that bets his strong hands big and doesn't get crazy with much else.

*edit* although I may have a really hard time folding this during actual play

Quote:

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Originally Posted by griffey24

I hope by let it go you mean... raise?
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Obvious leak :)

BU is raising waaaay more than 5 set combos vs whale. Also his preflop calling range is probably wider given that whale is the opener. call flop raise, keep megafish in. I think if an ace or king falls on the turn and BU keeps shoveling manies in we can start thinking about folding.

Don't fold OTF. If you put BTN on a set, then it would have to be a set a three's since, you have blockers to pocket 10s and 9s. Granted, the latter two are possible, but highly unlikely. I'm thinking BTN has A10 or A9.

Call bet and see turn card. If BTN is a such a nit, turn could probably go check check. If it doesn't, then you can evaluate depending on the turn card.

Bust his over pair.

Completely agree with agnesamurphy...set of 10s or 9s is so unlikely since theres only 2 of each in the deck. Set of 3s is there, but villain is also doing this with AA-JJ, possible even JQ (although doubtful).

There's only 1 combo of 99 and 1 combo of TT in the deck btw. Not two of each.

He has 3 combos of 33, and 1 each of 99 and TT. That's 5 combos. Compared to all his overpairs and AT type hands it's minor.

I'm fascinated by everyone one thinking he has all these overpairs. Surely villain 3bets QQ+ just about always leaving only JJ, if even that.

This is 6max pelion?

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Originally Posted by supa

I'm fascinated by everyone one thinking he has all these overpairs. Surely villain 3bets QQ+ just about always leaving only JJ, if even that.

This is 6max pelion?

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You're aware that he's much more likely to be spewing with AK than he is to have TT or 99 right?

I'd definitely feel like I was ahead at this point.

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Originally Posted by ImSavy

You're aware that he's much more likely to be spewing with AK than he is to have TT or 99 right?

I'd definitely feel like I was ahead at this point.

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No. I have no information to base that assumption on. But that's not my point. His overpairs are what I'm talking about. What overpairs?

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Originally Posted by supa

No. I have no information to base that assumption on. But that's not my point. His overpairs are what I'm talking about. What overpairs?

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3bet of 3% over a tiny sample doesn't mean that he 3bets that often.

A 3bet of 3% according to icm is AK JJ+. Over such a small sample 3% doesn't mean anything. He's just as likely to have 3bet with AT against a BTN opening a larger part of his range.

To call on the button to an UTG raise he has lots of pairs in his range. I wouldn't even be surprised if he raised something like 88 and would give up next time, although not very likely.

He's also so tight that he may slowplay a very big hand against an UTG raise expecting the blinds to not come along and then slow play. Which would also tie into him raising trying to get people to fold.

Basically against his raising range otf against a whale we are ahead imo. Can't say I have enough knowledge to say we should raise or call without doing some real work.

i'm not folding this street because villain will be raising more than just the 7 combos of sets/two pairs vs such a small lead from such a weak player. our cold-call looks really strong so if we go to the turn HU and he's still going crazy i might fold

Even a 12/8 might call stuff like ATs, or even ATo preflop vs a megawhale, and that's certainly a hand that would value raise this piddly flop bet from the whale. JJ is also possible. I mean to be in his shoes, with AT or JJ, does he want a solid reg to continue, or does he want to isolate the fish and happily play for stacks?

I expect this guy to play very straight forward, both preflop and postflop. I dont think he has an overpair that often. I'd expect him to iso-3bet big PPs preflop. If he cold calls AA here preflop he's just weird.

Right now he could have sets/2 pairs or something like JTs, ATs. My problem is, if I raise and call a shove I've probably narrowed his range down to 33/99/TT/9Ts.

Do we think he is stacking off here with ATs? JTs? JQ? I would be surprised. What line can I take so that I don't maximise my losses and minimise my wins?

I thought about call flop/lead turn, it has the advantage of potentially keeping the fish in with a wide range, but BU is likely to shut down or suck out on overcards.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ImSavy

You're aware that he's much more likely to be spewing with AK than he is to have TT or 99 right?

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So he misses an obvious iso/value 3bet preflop against a fish who will probably call a 3bet with any Ax, and then only starts betting with a 6 outer on a board the fish (who never folds) probably hit a piece of.

What about this looks like AK?

don't raise flop imo. just makes the fish less likely to give any action and gets our money in vs the nits sets,T9s, and maybe an occasional JJ or AT but i suspect he'd fold them vs a flop 3b from the blinds w/fish in the pot. i'd call flop. if the fish calls too i'd probably lead the turn. if fish folds (probably most likely outcome) then it's not as tasty but i'm still confident that calling flop is +EV and raising probably -EV

To me the fact that utg cbettor is a whale and that the size of the cbet is 1/5th pot is way more relevant than the small sample low 3b/nit stats.

If I'm button I'm raising every 9x/Tx/QJ/KQ/KJ/any overpair cause based on sizing it's pretty clear the whale has nonsense. Whether or not btn is aggro loose enough for that is clearly up to debate based on the number of hands. But if we think he's looser more aggro than his stats then I do think those hands above are possible and if his stats are representative I think more overpairs are possible.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Pelion

So he misses an obvious iso/value 3bet preflop against a fish who will probably call a 3bet with any Ax, and then only starts betting with a 6 outer on a board the fish (who never folds) probably hit a piece of.

What about this looks like AK?

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I don't think he has AK, that wasn't my point.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by griffey24

To me the fact that utg cbettor is a whale and that the size of the cbet is 1/5th pot is way more relevant than the small sample low 3b/nit stats.

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12/8 is really tight at 6m over 100 hands. I think his range is pretty much gonna be 33,99-JJ and then a large handful of QQ/JTs/AT/straight draws. FWIW, I don't recall if PS has a "Pot" button, but this is pot minus one click, which is an extremely value-heavy bet size from a straight forward villain in a spot where he has all the reason in the world to be straight forward (namely, value betting a rock).

Anyway, this range gives us somewhere in the 55-60% equity range, which is enough to continue even though we're OOP and a little uncertain what his betting pattern is gonna be on future streets.

3b'ing to force the megafish out and to give villain a chance to get away from the hands we're ahead of seems like a silly way to continue.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by surviva316

12/8 is really tight at 6m over 100 hands. I think his range is pretty much gonna be 33,99-JJ and then a large handful of QQ/JTs/AT/straight draws. FWIW, I don't recall if PS has a "Pot" button, but this is pot minus one click, which is an extremely value-heavy bet size from a straight forward villain in a spot where he has all the reason in the world to be straight forward (namely, value betting a rock).

Anyway, this range gives us somewhere in the 55-60% equity range, which is enough to continue even though we're OOP and a little uncertain what his betting pattern is gonna be on future streets.

3b'ing to force the megafish out and to give villain a chance to get away from the hands we're ahead of seems like a silly way to continue.

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As a general game plan, I can see the merit of flatting a strong hand to this kind of action, in an attempt to keep the whale in. That being said, to avoid getting in this kind of spot in the first place, since the whale is so passive, we REALLY should be thinking about donking this flop. The whale has a very wide continuing range on this board I would imagine.

As played, any card 8 and up has the strong potential to be a bad card, barring us boating up. Especially if we see the turn 3 way, and especially since we're OOP to both. That's 50% of the deck. What's your plan on a brick 2 if we check, fish checks and btn bets $3-$4?

Good point griffey, defo lead flop.

I would have called here and evaluate the hand again on the turn.