20NL Deep with AK

So I've played cash games quite a bit, but I'm really trying to get more serious about it and improve my game. Anyways, I played in this 20NL home game and was doing fairly well up until this hand where I lost my stack. Me and villain both had over 200BBs. I've seen villain lead out in pots with bottom pair on flop, min re raise with bottom or middle pair on flop, pretty much just had a crazy image. The table was 5 handed.

Hero AKo raise .70
I believe everyone called.
K-8-x with two spades.
I bet $2, fold, villain makes it $5, fold, fold, I make it $15 and villain calls.
Q on turn.
I check and villain bets $20. I re raise all in and villain calls and shows AA.
2 on river.

How could I have played this hand differently?

edit - rubbish

A) This goes in the live poker forum (but since that forum is hidden now, like the events forum :wall: I guess I'll answer it here).

B) Live poker is about psychological warfare. You didn't give us one detail about how Villain was behaving in the hand. You didn't give us any details about his tendencies at all.

C) You didn't give us any indication that you are aware that your opponents have cards, too... I'm sure you have a sense of their ranges, just include it in the OP.

It looks like 4 people called a pot-sized raise from you UTG. So they probably don't fold much pre-flop. So their ranges are pretty much ATC.

So what do you think each of them would continue with OTF?
In the light of that, what are the best and worst turn cards for you?

D) You stacked off with TPTK on a 5-handed flop.

When you think of it in these terms, the many alternate ways to play this hand spring forward, no?

Top pair top kicker is not a hand to be getting in 200bb deep when mutliway to the flop, even against your typical home game fish. I'd go $1.40 pre and bet/fold every street around 2/3-3/4 pot.

FWIW, I think villain butchers this hand too (sorry dude).

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Originally Posted by ImSavy

don't think he's ever calling a shove with worse, so don't shove on the turn. I don't think shoving basically cuts out a huge chunk of his range that you beat.

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raising $5 into a $70 pot? 82o has enough equity against us to call here. and villain wont be firing $5 bluffs into a $70 pot with whatever pure bluffing range he has here.

i probably just jam this turn if villain's as bad as the impression of him i'm getting. he'll probably show up with worse kings, maybe even flush draws.

edit: by this i mean i'd ship as first to act.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by rpm

raising $5 into a $70 pot? 82o has enough equity against us to call here. and villain wont be firing $5 bluffs into a $70 pot with whatever pure bluffing range he has here.

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My bad, didn't realise it was 5 handed on the flop, hence inflating the pot so much.

all good. easy to overlook with a hand-typed HH.

it's funny that, from an EV perspective, we'd prefer villain to fold hands that we have completely crushed like QJo or T9o facing our tiny shove on the turn

One mistake is that re-raise on the river. Why not just call. What makes you so sure your TPTK is ahead here?

I don't think you can easily get away from this one, because if villain will play bottom and midpair aggressively, then your top pair does very well against his range. On the other hand, top pair-top kicker is a little too vulnerable to stack off with for 200bb. He could have {88, QQ+, KQ, K8} that beats you. What hands do you beat that he would call a turn shove with? Maybe KJ and KT? Would he call with less than top pair? An A-high flush draw?

Look at it this way: it is not a mistake to lose to AA. It happens. If you thought he would call this shove with any K, Q, or flush draw, then you didn't make a mistake (because you'd be coming out ahead money in the long run, even if you took a tough beat now). However, if you thought he would only call this shove with hands that beat you (overpairs, 2-pairs, sets), then you're making a mistake.

I think you're probably behind when he calls your shove:

Board: Ks 8s 5h Qd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.370% 38.69% 05.68% 749 110.00 { AcKd }
Hand 1: 55.630% 49.95% 05.68% 967 110.00 { QQ+, 88, AsQs, KTs+, K8s, AKo, KTo+, K8o }


But if villain calls with most K and some flush draws, then you are ahead of his calling range:

Board: Ks 8s 5h Qd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.264% 53.72% 04.55% 1560 132.00 { AcKd }
Hand 1: 41.736% 37.19% 04.55% 1080 132.00 { QQ+, 88, AKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, K5s+, AKo, K7o+ }

^^ You think Villain is folding bottom set?

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

^^ You think Villain is folding bottom set?

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No, of course not. I just forgot to add it. (It doesn't shift either result above or below 50% though: this is still basically a question of how many Kx and flush draw hands the villain will call with.)

i was incredibly high when i posted in this thread last night and as such i'd take any advice i gave with half a grain of salt

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Originally Posted by The Bean Counter

I'd go $1.40 pre and bet/fold every street around 2/3-3/4 pot.

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This sounds like a good line for the most part, but why bet/fold (instead of bet/call) the flop against a villain who is known to raise the flop with bottom and middle pair? Wouldn't hero be folding TPTK to smaller pairs a lot?