2/4 - Counterfeited two pair on straight board

Villain stats and reads:
-Villain in this hand has been very aggro (today is the first time I'm playing him, but he's on multiple tables)
-he's btn stealing about 41%, running 31/26/6.5 over approximately 400 hands
-his 3b his 10.9 and calls a ton of 3bets, around 40% so far
-no big reads on his postflop play other than a high cbet stat (80%) and low turn cbet stat (38%)
-I know it's a small sample, but his wtsd is 29% and won at sd 43%

General assumptions on this type of spot/board:
-In general I assume that most players would often check back two pairs / and some sets on this particular turn (esp those with low turn barrels) - reasonable assumption?
-I would assume that I have a fair bit of boats getting to river myself that would c/c flop and then c/c this turn, so most ppl wouldn't overbet a bare Kx on river?
-I also assume that many regs (esp those with low turn barrels) will often shut down Ax on turn and/or river (so not fully worried about Ax into a bluff)
-These above assumptions make me want to call, reasonable or no?

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($536.85) 134bb
CO ($694.70) 174bb
BTN ($871) 218bb
SB ($348.60) 87bb
griffey24 (BB) ($459) 115bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 5 players) griffey24 is BB :jd: :tc:
2 folds, BTN raises to $8, 1 fold, griffey24 calls $4

Flop: :js: :th: :ac: ($18, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, BTN bets $10, griffey24 calls $10

Turn: :qh: ($38, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, BTN bets $28, griffey24 calls $28

River: :qd: ($94, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, BTN bets $200, griffey24 ??

???

I do not think this is a good spot to call given:
1- River is a better card for you than for him.
2- He is overbetting so you have to be right more often.
3- He could be turning Ax into a bluff at least some % of the time.
4- You have a shit hand.
5- Similar to 4. Odds are you have a straight, a boat, or trips. In these kind of spots I randomize by calling the top of my folding range. So I'd call like Kx sometimes. To me this looks like AA trying to get paid vs underboat or getting a hero call.

1. I think you're over-estimating how often ppl are rampant betting set/two pairs on this turn no? I think many ppl are checking this back pretty often IP?

2 and 3 I agree.

4 - It' not a great hand, but it's good for blockers on the boats he's repping?

Turn seems like a c/f no?

I think calling river now that we called the turn seems very reasonable, especially with a double blocker. Sure he could have aces or even only Kx, but just as well 56hh or just air.

What worries me is that you say "villain has been very aggro". This guy is probably aware of his image and can def bet sets on the turn and go for max value here.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pocketfours

Turn seems like a c/f no?

I think calling river now that we called the turn seems very reasonable, especially with a double blocker. Sure he could have aces or even only Kx, but just as well 56hh or just air.

What worries me is that you say "villain has been very aggro". This guy is probably aware of his image and can def bet sets on the turn and go for max value here.

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Turn does seem like a cf, and i kinda see your reasoning for if call turn, call river, but that logic works best on another river than this one. I think the last part where he goes for 2x pot with a set is ridiculous though.

Truly thinks he gives up a fair bit on river with all his bluffs though.

If he has AA I'm back to grinding hard this month, if he has 56hh I officially quit for life. LOL

*results hidden*

edited by p4's: let's give others a chance to post before revealing results mkay

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Alexos

I think the last part where he goes for 2x pot with a set is ridiculous though.

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Wait, I didn't mean that he would go 2x with a set unimproved, if that's what you thought? I simply meant that villain could easily valuebet worse than the nuts on the turn if he's aware of his image.

Edit: If you meant my comment that he might 2x pot with a straight, then you're right it doesn't seem likely. I just wanted to make the point that it's not necessarily a bad idea here.

I mean this was pretty much my line of thinking. I agree with you guys that he's not 2x potting a straight, so that leaves boats.

I block quite a few combos of possible boats, plus the fact that he might not even bet all two pairs or sets on the turn in the first place.

That doesn't leave too many combos of boats left to play this way.

The most compelling reason I have for folding is that it also looks like I have Kx, and I doubt he expects me to fold Kx.

Yeah, Alexos if he "never-lol-ridiculously-ever" has Kx, then why are you calling with Kx sometimes and not your best blockers instead?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pocketfours

Wait, I didn't mean that he would go 2x with a set unimproved, if that's what you thought? I simply meant that villain could easily valuebet worse than the nuts on the turn if he's aware of his image.

Edit: If you meant my comment that he might 2x pot with a straight, then you're right it doesn't seem likely. I just wanted to make the point that it's not necessarily a bad idea here.

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yeah i thought u meant like naked Qx on river, trips.. i get what u mean now

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pocketfours

Yeah, Alexos if he "never-lol-ridiculously-ever" has Kx, then why are you calling with Kx sometimes and not your best blockers instead?

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because he might sometimes have Ax into a bluff. But ok Ax blocker is better than Kx. By sometimes I mean very very rarely though, since it's a spot villain almost never has air IMO.

edit: But you'll never have Ax unless Axhh.

AJ/AT should probably be in our range right? If that's too many combos to call with then we can reduce by flipping a coin when holding those hands.

yah some, although AJ should prob 3b vs a BTN minraise, even AT. We're agreeing here except for the call river part lol.

I feel like P4-Griffey-Genitruc should never be allowed to discuss poker with each other. You guys need some balance lol!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Alexos

We're agreeing here except for the call river part lol.

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We're pretty much agreeing all the way I'd say. Let's call this rarely and with our best blockers. Griffey usually has a very good feel of the game so if he wants to call here I can't fault his logic. Calling is by no means a standard play, but it's a play that's almost impossible to exploit.

AT/AJ is pretty hard to play oop and we don't really like to see a 4bet. I'm fine just flatting and playing a small pot against a hundred combos that I dominate.

we as BB shouldnt have that many Kx in BTNs eyes tbh (but we do have a decent nr of Ax calling minraise that will fold the river). Noone chcalls much of pure Kx on the the flop, AK/KK 3bet pre, KQ 3bets pre some, so that leaves only KT, KJ
The only reason why BTN should be discouranged to bluff the river is that BB has a boat on that river himself a decent % (or Kx that shouldnt be epxected to fold). Still we flat the minraise with a lot of crappy Ax/other low suited stuff like Qxs for BTN to fold out. I think w JT a call is reasonable vs more aggressive/capable players on this river, but not vs every reg for sure.