Top Two Pair Facing Flop Raise

Villain is tight, 12/8/2 TotalAF 3, TotalAFq 42.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

UTG ($11.37)
UTG+1 ($4)
MP1 ($10.53)
MP2 ($13.47)
MP3 ($11.96)
CO ($12.58)
Button ($13.03)
SB ($9.80)
Hero (BB) ($11.77)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif
5 folds, CO bets $0.35, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.25

Flop: ($0.75) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $0.70, CO raises to $3

My range for him after he raises is 99+, 78s, KQ, which i have ~35% equity against. My donk will suggest to him a made hand, which i am defending against the draw. He doesnt hesitate and rolls over the top.

Hero folds?

Edit: I am giving villain credit that he wont chase his draws bc he doesnt have the pot odds.

I'd add AA/KK and prolly take out 78s (unless you've seen him raise sc's in the CO) and see watcha come up with.

*edit* nevermind- missed your + after 99

He may well put you on a draw as well when you donk.
Also if you think he is raising his overpairs, why would he not raise AJ also?
Does he never raise AsKs? AQ?

Code:

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Board: Js 9s Tc
Dead: 

    equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    49.811%      48.79%    01.02%              30916          644.50  { JhTh }
Hand 1:    50.189%      49.17%    01.02%              31155          644.50  { 99+, AsKs, AQs-AJs, KQs, AQo-AJo, KQo }

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Hey Daviddem, thanks for commenting.

He may well, i guess i am biasing his play style with mine. To him i am on a draw or TP, which he crushes if he is on a draw with over cards. I'd expect him to call here with that range. His raise smelt to me like a bet to protect.

meh... maybe call and re-evaluate turn. If he has a top pair/over pair type of hand, there are also tons of turn cards that are going to slow him down.

Hero is usually a slight dog to Villain's raising range. A large re-raise isn't attractive because it gets Villain to fold some hands that we would beat, and this makes his range stronger. Calling is a possibility since we don't really expect him to try to bluff us with his one pair hands if the draws come in. I don't mind calling the flop and bet/folding on safe turns. Folding the flop might be better as an exploitative measure.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Folding the flop might be better as an exploitative measure.

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Can you explain this point?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Deucebag

Can you explain this point?

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To clarify, I'm saying that calling might be -EV if Villain plays well on the turn/river. He probably doesn't, though.

So he's never raising QJ, KJ, AJ, NFDs?

If hes such a nit I guess I could see that but meh. I'd be very hard pressed to not ship here, or flatting and jamming any blank turns (only a psb after we call).

Decide or look at notes to see how he plays his NFDs, pair +draws, etc and go from there.

You're out of position.
You have a pretty goodish hand.
I would just ship it in.
If he's folding anything to a ship here, LOL!

It feels like a close spot in term of equity and by shipping you avoid making a really terrible mistake and range merge with your big draws.