Top set facing shove on the flop

Hey peeps, wouldn't mind some opinions on this one.

Villain is 47/2/4 off only 50 hands so not really a good sample. I stoved it giving them KK+, 77,99 & J8 which gives me 65% on it, but what I'm wondering more so is if these stats would be similar over a larger sample, would this style of player be shoving AA and KK here, or just sets and straights, which takes away a lot of equity.


BTN: $0.73
SB: $1.90
BB: $1.73
UTG: $7.08
UTG+1: $1.91
UTG+2: $1.72
MP: $2.15
Hero (MP+1): $4.44
CO: $2.12

SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has T:heart: T:club:

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.06, fold, fold, SB calls $0.05, fold

Flop: ($0.14, 2 players) 7:club: 9:club: T:diamond:
SB bets $0.08, Hero raises to $0.18, SB raises to $1.84 and is all-in, Hero ?

Any opinions appreciated!

Raise flop bigger
Snap call the shove

Imagine you are 100% sure he has a straight. Your pot odds are 43.5% (call 1.66 for a chance to win a total pot after the call of 3.82). Your equity vs a straight is 38.1%. So you should not call.

However he shoves many more hands than a straight, which you all totally crush. These other hands being in his range easily bring your equity well above the required 43.5%.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ll-173396.html

edit: note that your pot odds are a little worse than what I said because of the rake. Based on 5% rake, you call 1.66 to win a 3.63 pot, so the pot odds are 45.7%, not 43.5%. Still a call though.

edit2: and to answer your original question, it is highly unlikely after 50 hands that this player is going to turn out being a 13/10 tagg if his stats are 47/2 at this point. You can be confident that he is a fish. Another hint is that he is not full stacked.

edit3: one thing to be wary of is when passive fishes suddenly start betting big post flop. If his post flop aggression was very low, you could maybe think that he only shoves sets and straights (and yes, it would STILL be a call, stove it). However, this one has a rather high post flop aggression so he probably likes donking and bluffing (or he is the kind who likes to min bet every street). Note that you have to be careful no to take post flop aggression figures for granted, because for some mysterious reason some of these fishes like to min bet just about every street, which will make their aggression stat artificially high. In that case, you have to make a note, and make the part between their min bets and value bets.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by daviddem

Raise flop bigger
Snap call the shove

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+1

Thanks for the response and link, great help!

Tons of good reading here:

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...pm-123008.html

davidem really nailed it for ya bro. I could be wrong but since your raise is so small OTF I don't know if he'd wanna shove a straight here. Fish do wild stuff, but one thing they do for sure is play their nut hands pretty obv. that is, he may try and slowplay the nuts till the river.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by WeldPhaser

davidem really nailed it for ya bro. I could be wrong but since your raise is so small OTF I don't know if he'd wanna shove a straight here. Fish do wild stuff, but one thing they do for sure is play their nut hands pretty obv. that is, he may try and slowplay the nuts till the river.

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Yeah that was my line of thought as well, I thought AA, 77, 99 were a lot more likely than J8, and I even thought if they had a set they would be slow playing it more. I was expecting AA when I called, not J8s.

Honestly, I the math posted above is mind boggling to a degree lol, but on another note, I don't see any reason not to call, maybe raise higher on the pre-flop, but honestly the dude called with not a great hand and got lucky... I hate when that happens in tourney play :(

*fist pump*

Expect to see 68, J8, A8cc, 77, 99 and lots of other club combos, especially 8x. You're so far ahead of this range, and even when he's ahead he has to dodge like a third of the deck. Ridiculously easy call. Don't sweat over this one.