10NL QQ UTG against deep stack BB on 3-bet flop OESD
Villain: I've seen him limp/fold from any position, limp/min-bet OTF. I've seem him min-raise the BTN and fold to a min-bet OTF KT7ss, limp UTG+1 w/ 65s (checked it down until he rivered a gut-shot and bet pot).
He doubled up a few orbits back w/ A4s when he called a huge 3-bet IP vs. the BB. He flopped top 2-pair called flop C-bet and called turn jam. Other guy had JJ. :lol:
Basically, I've seen him do a lot of weak and passive stuff.
Bovada - $0.10 NLHE - 9 players
Hero UTG: $18.12
UTG+1: $3.25
MP1: $12.73
MP2: $2.90
HJ: $6.21
CO: $7.51
BTN: $10.15
SB: $10.51
BB: $20.34
SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10
Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has Q:s: Q:d:
Hero raises to $0.40, 7 folds, BB calls $0.30
Flop: ($0.75, 2 players) K:c: J:h: T:s:
BB bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1.50, BB raises $4.50, Hero ...
So my thoughts at this point are: $3.00 to call a pot of $4.25, so pot odds are 41%. A 3-bet flop is a rare thing at 10NL on Bovada, so I think his range is
Pre-flop:
{JJ-22,AQs-A2s,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,AQo-A9o,KTo+,QTo+,JTo }
Flop w/ 3-bet:
{ JJ-TT,AQs-ATs,KTs+,Q9s+,JTs,AQo-ATo,KTo+,QTo+,JTo }
Which, I'm startled to find, I still have over 50% equity against. Even though his range is narrowed down to straights, sets, 2 pair and pr+OESD. Problem is... this is not an all-in call for both cards... I have to call for 1 card and probably fold OTT. (Is this bad thinking?)
My dilemma is this: I need 43% equity on a single draw, I don't think my QQ are good, and I need to draw an A, Q or 9 to make a hand. That's 10 outs at best, and that's ~21% equity on the draw.
We started with 180bb ESS, so we're really deep and implieds on the draw could make a good call... or they could kill my action.. or make a chop... or I could be basically drawing dead against AQ (even though I have blockers)... or I make my straight and the board pairs, I lose to a boat...
Basically I'm scared shitless by this 3-bet and I don't know what to do here. It's my own fault for not having a plan when I raised.
So let's make a plan for next time.
