5nl flopped book facing river shove

Villain is 13/10/4 over 250ish hands, nothing really note worthy yet but does have an agression factor of 4 on the river.



PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 9 players


SB: $5.44
BB: $5.20
UTG: $5.00
UTG+1: $5.34
UTG+2: $2.06
MP: $5.86
Hero (MP+1): $12.73
CO: $2.71
BTN: $5.07

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has 4:diamond: 4:club:

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.10, fold, fold, SB calls $0.08, fold

Flop: ($0.25, 2 players) 4:spade: 8:heart: 8:club:
SB bets $0.18, Hero raises to $0.40, SB calls $0.22

Turn: ($1.05, 2 players) 2:heart:
SB checks, Hero bets $0.45, SB calls $0.45

River: ($1.95, 2 players) 7:club:
SB bets $4.49 and is all-in, Hero calls $4.49

SB shows 7:diamond: 7:spade: (Full House, Sevens full of Eights) (Pre 81%, Flop 17%, Turn 9%)
Hero shows 4:diamond: 4:club: (Full House, Fours full of Eights) (Pre 19%, Flop 83%, Turn 91%)
SB wins $10.48


Should have bet more OTT, but am I ever getting away from this?

bigger pre, flop is fine, bigger turn, river is meh, he almost always beats 98 here when he overbet shoves, but could have some stupid AA i guess. Stove that range - 22/87s/89s/8Ts/A8s/77/AA - and see for yourself whether you should call

edit: it's also better not to post results if you want good advice

Even with 88-77,22,A8s it's still a call.

I can't fold this except maybe against an 8/6.

I may be wrong though: it's doubtful whether a 13/10 flats an MP raise in the SB with A8s or suited connectors

edit: and yes, do not minraise pre. I see tons of people who minraise from any position with small to mid PP, but when they have a big hand or AK suddenly their sizing changes. That's pretty transparent. If you vary your preflop raise sizes, do it only according to your position (which is public information), not according to your hand strength (better kept private). And if you do, you can maybe minraise from the button but not a good idea from MP.

50 Cent - I Get It In (HQ) Explicit - YouTube

Don't post results from now on. Welcome to FTR.

It seems pretty unlikely that you can find a fold considering the small number of hands he can hold that beat you.

And I'd have bet more on the turn too. If he's calling 0.45 into a pot holding 1.50, he's calling more. The only question is how much more.

If there truly is nothing "note worthy" over 250 hands this is probably a pretty easy fold.

I mean a 13/10 doesn't have any combos of A8s, 22 in these positions. His pfr/vpip would have to be larger if he is cc that much in here unless he ccs a tonne in the blinds and never anywhere else which is noteworthy... Anyway easy fold and I'm not trolling.

Whether to fold is the wrong question. The whole hand is played in a way that allows the villain to put you in the position you are in on the river.

If you raise more on the flop and turn as suggested by daven, villain is in a much more uncomfortable position by the turn and therefore has to make a much bigger mistake in order to suck out on the river.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by rong

Whether to fold is the wrong question. The whole hand is played in a way that allows the villain to put you in the position you are in on the river.

If you raise more on the flop and turn as suggested by daven, villain is in a much more uncomfortable position by the turn and therefore has to make a much bigger mistake in order to suck out on the river.

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OP states he should bet more on the turn though so I don't know why we are all addressing this problem specifically when he's already addressed it himself but yes more flop.

I like the flop raise as nobody expects you to raise a flopped boat here. Sizing is interesting as clearly we don't want to frighten off 55-77 and 4x but villain's donk sizing looks like this won't be a problem and I think flop raise therefore needs to be bigger.

Turn sizing is far too small - if villain has 8x, etc, then we want to get stacks in comfortably by rvr without having to overbet.

River is a call. Only way this would be a fold is against the world's biggest nit with a large sample size.

I want some people to give me a realistic range we can call this against on the river.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

I want some people to give me a realistic range we can call this against on the river.

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I mean it's 5nl, it's hard to talk about ranges. What's his range of calling in SB?
You can , of course put him on some hands , based on the fact that he's a 13/10 FR player that seems to be a reg, but the showdown will always surprise you.
So in my opinion you should play more the hand, rather than your opponent here => bet / bet / bet. Or in this case raise/bet /call

Don't like PF or Turn sizing but thats been stated. An AF of 4 on the river doesn't mean he is aggro/bluffing, it just means that the small part of his already tight PF range that he takes to the river he is betting/raising with.

Its 5nl. Even with the most conservative range of 77, 22 its a coin toss, a call. We have 50% equity and 41% pot odds (4.49/(4.49+4.49+1.95). Nice cooler.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kingmotan

I mean it's 5nl, it's hard to talk about ranges.

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LOL WHAT

Quote:

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

LOL WHAT

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This. I mean I'm down for calling the river versus people we have no sample on etc but we have 250 hands on this guy. He's a pretty nitty player who I'm assuming doesn't cold call sb oop a tonne. I mean when I first read the stats and the HH I said he had 77 w/o seeing the results. It's really tough for me to find a call unless we have SOME kind of read which the OP should be giving us if we do.

So once again I'll ask someone to give us a range that villain can have on the river where we can call.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Openside

Don't like PF or Turn sizing but thats been stated. An AF of 4 on the river doesn't mean he is aggro/bluffing, it just means that the small part of his already tight PF range that he takes to the river he is betting/raising with.

Its 5nl. Even with the most conservative range of 77, 22 its a coin toss, a call. We have 50% equity and 41% pot odds (4.49/(4.49+4.49+1.95). Nice cooler.

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Villain doesn't have 22 pre here unless BB is a pretty big fish. I mean if he's coldcalling 22+ here in the SB, he's probably cold calling it in the BB and OTB v most opens which would give him a way bigger vpip gap in my own personal experience. Even if he does cc it pre does he donk/call on a flop where he has absolutely no equity v our range?

Still looking for a realistic* range to call river.

Bluffs: 0