AJs vs reg, religious flop

preflop?
flop?
turn?
<daven> villain 15-10-3, 20% steal, 20% fold to 3b
<daven> 30% button steal
<daven> 80% flop cb, 20% turn cb, 70% w$sd
<daven> that type of player
<daven> 0% 4b
<daven> forgot to include that, he calls 80% of 3best
<daven> bets
<daven> that's 400 hands and he's faced 5 3bets
<daven> he's 50% fold to cbet (6/12), 100% fold to turn cbet (1/1)


$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
7 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($23.85) 95bb
UTG+1 ($30.95) 124bb
MP ($55.70) 223bb
CO ($9.05) 36bb
BTN ($37.29) 149bb
SB ($27.13) 109bb
daven (BB) ($44.08) 176bb

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 7 players) daven is BB :ad: :jd:
4 folds, BTN raises to $0.70, 1 fold, daven raises to $2.20, BTN calls $1.50

Flop: :6h: :6c: :6s: ($4.50, 2 players)
daven bets $1.90, BTN calls $1.90

Turn: :2s: ($8.30, 2 players)

20% ft3b and 70% w$sd does not compute, but why not make it $10 now and jam any river. Alternatively c/f flop, which I prefer against this guy.

Check-call depending the size and mya be c-fold river with blank if you think they don´t made 3 barrels with air

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pocketfours

20% ft3b and 70% w$sd does not compute

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Why not when villain is only opening the nuts to begin with couple this with a little run good and having these stats over this sample is pretty easy.

Btw I'd cold call pre v this particular villain.

+1 to flat pre as he is rather tight and his steal % is quite low

Why so small OTF? Would you bet this small with TT+?

Nothing changes OTT, so there is no reason for him to fold a better hand to a turn bet if he called the flop. I think c/f turn. He is not going to bet with anything that does not beat you.

c/f or 3ball it

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

Why not when villain is only opening the nuts to begin with couple this with a little run good and having these stats over this sample is pretty easy.

Btw I'd cold call pre v this particular villain.

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Yeah I didn't mean to suggest that the stats given were incorrect, just that they likely include a good bit of variance. I don't think there is much point in posting so detailed stats when the sample is this small.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pocketfours

Yeah I didn't mean to suggest that the stats given were incorrect, just that they likely include a good bit of variance. I don't think there is much point in posting so detailed stats when the sample is this small.

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This man speaks the truth.