ALL-In Equity

General question and the numbers I am using are an example. Supposing I have earned we will say $14 playing ring games, but my all-in equity is minus $2 what is that trying to tell me?

Does this mean when I am shoving I am going in behind? Does this mean I am running worse than I should be in these all-in situations and I have the best hand usually but have gotten unlucky? I have searched and searched, but I still just don't understand what it is trying to tell me.

Any knowledgeable help on this much appreciated

Your all-in equity is the amount of money you would have won if you won the same % of the profit as you had equity % in the pot.

So if you went in all in and got called resulting in a $10 pot and you had 40% equity, you'd be allocated $4 in EV (expected value) as in the long run that's what you'd earn.

Over a small sample, and even over a big sample, EV isn't all that helpful - it would be best to learn to just ignore it. The only time you'll ever really see it is people posting that they have earnt less than EV and complaining about how bad they run, which isn't good for their game.

In the short run, yes, in the situations you have been all in you've had the worst hand and got lucky more times than you should have meaning you're running $16 "above EV". All-in EV ignores a lot of situations - you can get it in with quads against better quads and get $0 added to your EV line because you had 0% equity, or you can play a hand awfully and hit your only card on the river but because all the money went in on the river all the money goes towards your EV line.

the other problem with it is that it's calculated on your actual hand versus villain's actual hand, rather than their range

e.g. you can get it in good versus villain's river range, but when the cards are shown, and you find you've been up against the top of that range, the EV result will be unrepresentative

so

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Pascal

...best to learn to just ignore it...

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^this really

If you run good, realize that you didn't do as well as your results would indicate. If you run bad, ignore it completely.