4nl 88 on BU, K-high two-tone, facing donk

btw guys, i'll prob be posting a decent amount of flop question hands , and I'll try and explain the plan i had in mind, so pls feel free to ask me hypothetical ?'s , or whatever ya think may help my thought process.

villain is 19/5/3 over 500, and i'm really not sure how to categorize him. where his stats seem weak-tight. he seem to make some aggro moves post-fl, no c/r's or raising c-bets, but basically big bets street to street, and his vpip is 19 in every POS . which I find interesting. this is the first donk i've seen him make also.

I'm not sure this matters , but @ 25,000 hands he's around +50 @ 4nl. I don't know if that makes him break-even or winning , but the majority of opp's i look up are huge losers.

His Donk seems unnecessarily big on thiys type of board in a 3b pot . since his 3b % only 3 i suppose its a fold even if he bet 1/2p right?

vs. his range I'm just set-mining here I believe.





Revolution Gaming Network - $0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): $4.52
SB: $3.63
BB: $10.24
UTG: $3.26
CO: $4.11

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.06) Hero has 8:club: 8:heart:

fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.11, SB raises to $0.30, fold, Hero calls $0.19

Flop: ($0.64, 2 players) K:club: 5:diamond: 6:heart:
SB bets $0.56,

Gettin 17.5 to 1 call I think you can call for setmining. His 3b is like JJ+, AK > 88. You say he bets big street to street so looks like its not unnecessarily big for his sizing. Fold, on to the next one.

5% pfr and he's 3-betting you.
You call cos you want to hit a set and stack him cos you put him on KK+. So you don't flop a set and he is c-betting big = trivial fold. Raising is terrible, so is calling to two outs. He makes big bets post flop because he knows that betting pot is a good way to get stacks in, and he only bets big when he TPTK+.

note that villain isn't donk-betting.

[QUOTE=daven;2116217]

note that villain isn't donk-betting.[/QUOTE

ohh, yep thanks daven. so when you say trivial fold i guess its still really all we can do here right?

I mean it's what Daven said. If you can call preflop then you cannot do anything but fold postflop on that board.

Set mining is fine against this player in position against a villain that will likely overvalue overpairs and tptk. Flop is an easy fold, partly as we miss our set (when set mining was our plan) and partly because of this huge sizing.

I think you need to fold this pre flop. The odds of hitting three of a kind are 1 in 7.5. This means that when you hit the three of a kind you have to get him to call $2.25 just to break even.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Credsfan03

I think you need to fold this pre flop. The odds of hitting three of a kind are 1 in 7.5. This means that when you hit the three of a kind you have to get him to call $2.25 just to break even.

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For those slow at math, how'd you get $2.25?

Quote:

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For those slow at math, how'd you get $2.25?

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. yeah? i'm not sure but why is he doing break even math here??

I'm getting 17.5 , guess it depends on who ya ask, but i think its good if this fella is stacking off w/ overs when we hit...

ah he means odds of hitting a set, we're talking implied odds (that were probly gettin his stack when we hit a set). price to call : his stack size = 1 : 17.5

I don't think pre-flop matters much.

I don't even hate a flop call, but it's probably setting money on fire.

Min-raising his flop bet would be really funny.

How is this hand a discussion? Pre is pretty easy call vs this guy's 3b range, flop is the easiest fold in the world, I see no 8.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Credsfan03

I think you need to fold this pre flop. The odds of hitting three of a kind are 1 in 7.5. This means that when you hit the three of a kind you have to get him to call $2.25 just to break even.

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This is incorrect. The raise of $0.11 was a value bet, not a bluff, so that equity is not at risk on the decision. At any rate, the dead money in the pot already counts towards the needed equity.

$0.02 + $0.04 + $0.11 + $0.28 = $0.45
in the pot, with
$0.30 - $0.11 = $0.19
to call

So the amount of Villain's stack that Hero needs to get into the pot if/when Hero flops a set is:
7.5*$0.19 - $0.45 = $1.43 - $0.45 = $0.98

Mojo can I just ask something;

Are you able to do these calculations ( not as precise obviously, but pretty close ) whilst playing or is it something you practice when reviewing hands?

I use an 8, instead of the more precise 7.5, but yeah, I do it constantly. It took some practicing, though. I just worked out the calculations a couple of times, and saw that they're the same thing over and over again. (note that using 8 is erring on the side of caution).

@ 5NL w/ 66 on the BTN: $0.07 dead from blinds
a raise to $0.15 -> pot is $0.22
I'd need (8*$0.15 = ) $1.20 total, so ($1.20 - $0.22 = ) $0.98 more.
3 calls
now I only need ($0.98 - $0.45 = ) $0.53 more to call when I hit
the pot is already $0.67
EZ call.

Basically, any time I decide to play a PP, I think:
the bet is x, I need 8 times that
there's already y in the pot
so... 8x - y = z
Can I get z from these donks?
Do these villains have BOTH the stack AND the willingness to play for stacks?

It's funny, sometimes when I'm not involved in a hand, I'll do the calculation, just out habit, and notice someone make the exact implied odds bet on the flop... It makes me smile. HUGE read on that player if they show down a set.