[$10NL] 2nd Set OOP vs Turn Raise, Drawy Board

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
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6 Players
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Stacks:
UTG ($25.21) 252bb
UTG+1 ($10.21) 102bb
DoubleJ (CO) ($12.61) 126bb
BTN ($10) 100bb - VPIP:20, PFR:18, 3B:3, 3B(Btn):10, FcB:50(2), AF:2.0, Hands: 225
SB ($12.05) 121bb
BB ($7.60) 76bb

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) DoubleJ is CO :qh: :qd:
2 folds, DoubleJ raises to $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, 2 folds

In the absence of any indications to the contrary, i have Villain down as a straight-forward player. His 3Bet from BTN is 10%, so i'm discounting some premium hands from his range, leaving {JJ-66,AJs-A2s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s}

Flop: :qc: :kh: :td: ($0.75, 2 players)
DoubleJ bets $0.60, BTN calls $0.60

I'm betting flop for value, and making it big to over-charge any draws. I've only got 2 hands of data for him vs. a cBet, so can i narrow his range any further than this?:
{JcJd,JcJs,JdJs,TcTh,TcTs,ThTs,99,AcJc,AdJd,AsJs,A cTc,AhTh,AsTs,A9s-2s,KsQs,KcJc,KdJd,KsJs,KcTc,KsTs,QsJs,QsTs,JcTc,Js Ts,Tc9c,Th9h,Ts9s,98s}

Turn: :jh: ($1.95, 2 players)
DoubleJ bets $1.50, BTN raises to $4.50, DoubleJ ???

So now i'm falling over my own feet - he clearly likes his hand, and i'm way ahead of 2Pairs and Sets if he's thinking these are the nuts. I also have redraw outs against any straight if he called flop w/ Ax....

ur thoughts, plizz

(5NL player giving advice to 10NL question)

Total pot to be won if call: $1.95 + $1.50 + $4.50 + $3.00 = $10.95
Pot odds to call: $3.00/$10.93 = 27%
Hero must win at least 27% of the time to be profitable.

Worst case scenario: Villain holds an A-high straight
Hero has 10 outs for the board to pair, and 3 outs to counterfeit the straight, but the 3 outs only count for half the pot, so 3/2 = 1.5
11.5 outs ~= 25%
Hero will make the draw less than 27% of the time.
Drawing odds < Pot odds = fold

Implied odds:
Hero needs ( $3.00/0.25 = ) $12 in the final pot to call,
( $12.00 - $10.95 = ) $1.05 of which is not Hero's money
How can Villain fold to a bet so small on the river?

If Villain holds anything else, besides KK (discounted), Hero is way ahead.

This is a very close call, but I think a call is the best play.

EDIT: On reflection, if Villain has an ace, then Hero likely has only 9 outs to pair the board... but still a call.

^^ Looks almost solely like AJ. Call given pot odds and the fact we are likely to get some further value if the board pairs.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by The Bean Counter

^^ Looks almost solely like AJ. Call given pot odds and the fact we are likely to get some further value if the board pairs.

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Why do you think this is soley AJ? there is certainly a better chance because of card removal, and if so i think as we look at mojo's math which looks good to me that this is an -ev call as we only have 23% vs. AJ

Villains range is never solely AJ.

I don't understand the bet on literally the worst turn possible. c/c turn for anything under pot, bet river big if we get there, otherwise c/f.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I don't understand the bet on literally the worst turn possible. c/c turn for anything under pot, bet river big if we get there, otherwise c/f.

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This.

yah i see little merit in betting turn

doesn't it all hinge around how many Aces you put in his range OTT?

if ABC player calls PF with A2s-AJs (feasible) and then calls flop bet with a 4-outer with any of these and bad expressed odds, then his turn range is about 76% made straights and i'm a 3:2 dog

if he's only continuing on flop w/ made straight(s) and mebbe pair/4-outer combo, then his turn range is only 48% made straights and i'm 3:2 favourite.

imo it mostly hinges around what range of hands he calls your turn bet with. which will be mostly 9x and Ax hands against which you only have 20%

I don't think this is really a question of our range being better than his range. This is more of can we extract value from the hands in his range that we beat.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by rpm

imo it mostly hinges around what range of hands he calls your turn bet with. which will be mostly 9x and Ax hands against which you only have 20%

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by tiltingdonkey

I don't think this is really a question of our range being better than his range. This is more of can we extract value from the hands in his range that we beat.

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Thanks guys

so by betting, i'm merely ensuring that he continues with stuff that crushes me, yes?

seems that way imo, yeah. villain seems like a reasonably tight and sane regular, like (i assume) yourself and most other posters here. so put yourself in villain's shoes. do you call your turn bet here with KQ? KJ? KT? QJ? QT? JT? remember that the board and your hand block a lot of these combinations too. ie it's very hard for villain to even have top two pair here

Betting the turn is horrible. I don't think anything you beat calls except TT and jj. Lots of paired Ax and Jx call the flop. Without the river pairing the board I want a cheap showdown so c/c turn makes much more sense.

I c/c most rivers too as the board is ripe for a bluff, esp in position.

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Originally Posted by rong

I c/c most rivers too as the board is ripe for a bluff, esp in position.

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I agree if turn goes check/check.

Not saying you're wrong (wait, you're rong, err... w/e :P) but if villain bets turn and we call, and he bets river again and the board doesn't pair up, can we really call too? I mean I'm having a hard time believing that villain can bluff two streets here as most regulars at these stakes don't have enough balls to do that (myself included).

c/c turn as betting for value isn't great here. We have 10 outs to win (K/Q/J/T) and some A's to chop.

I'd check/raise all in on a board pair and c/f without a strong read he can be multi street bluffing here. Leading river makes our hand too obvious.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by WeldPhaser

Why do you think this is soley AJ? there is certainly a better chance because of card removal, and if so i think as we look at mojo's math which looks good to me that this is an -ev call as we only have 23% vs. AJ

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We don't have the pot odds, but we always have the implied odds imo.

There's no chance in hell this villain doesn't have an ace and nothing other than AJ makes sense once villain raises turn.

I like leading the turn - we need to bet some non-nutted hands sometimes, otherwise we basically tell villain exactly what we're all about.

If we do c/c turn, I don't like crai on river if we hit - a lot of villains would chk behind the river if it pairs as betting achieves nothing.

Why not AQ or AT??

personally i'd expect AJ to be discounted at least a wee bit due to no flop raise given AJ is the nuts and this board smacks our range in the face. plus there's a possible FD to be "scared of"

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Hoopy

c/c turn as betting for value isn't great here. We have 10 outs to win (K/Q/J/T) and some A's to chop.

I'd check/raise all in on a board pair and c/f without a strong read he can be multi street bluffing here. Leading river makes our hand too obvious.

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We gotta lead river if we get there. When we call turn, we either have a) a set, or b) an ace in rake control mode, so any villain with half a brain is going to check behind a paired river because he doesn't get called by worse, and is just increasing rake the the times he chops. There's literally no value for an ace on a paired river here, not unless he thinks we call 99 or whatever. So lead paired river big enough to make up for the bad pot odds on turn, but not so big that he folds an ace.