[$10NL] Top Set vs. Flop Raise OOP on Wet Board

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
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6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($37.40) 374bb
DoubleJ (UTG+1) ($14.61) 146bb
CO ($10.73) 107bb - VPIP:55, PFR:0, 3B:0, FcB:38, AF:1.4, Hands:60
BTN ($10) 100bb - VPIP:27, PFR:18, 3B:3, FcB:67, AF:1.9, Hands:274
SB ($10.59) 106bb
BB ($11.65) 117bb

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) DoubleJ is UTG+1 :ts: :tc:
1 fold, DoubleJ raises to $0.35, CO calls $0.35, BTN calls $0.35, 2 folds

Flop: :td: :9h: :8h: ($1.20, 3 players)
DoubleJ bets $1, CO folds, BTN raises to $2.97, DoubleJ ???

Again, i'm more interested in how you guys would assign a range (PreFlop and Flop) for BTN

PreFlop, i'm putting him on TT-22,AJo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AJs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s. I'm including o/s BWs as i have seen him flat KTo in position

OTF, he's been straightforward - X/Fing OOP, a mix of cBetting and Checking behind IP. This is the first time i've seen him raise, so i'm putting him on Straights(QJx16), Sets(99,88 x 3 each) and 2Pair(98s x 3), raising for value and protection.

i've got 56% against this and i need 42% to shove, right?

Things like AThh JThh KJhh AJhh maybe QKhh. Should be in that range, I don't imagine that changes things too much. I seriously doubt villain is bluffing or finds a fold ever so yeah hero gets it in pretty happy.

Do you have any stats on him? Given he's on button you should be including stuff like A7hh, A2hh, A3hh, J7, JT (one heart) if you think he'll peel those pre based on stats.

Regardless never folding here especially as we're never dead and we can have like 99% equity plus he can have a lot of draws so alll in

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Pascal

Do you have any stats on him?

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Stats are in the OP/HH

CO ($10.73) 107bb - VPIP:55, PFR:0, 3B:0, FcB:38, AF:1.4, Hands:60
BTN ($10) 100bb - VPIP:27, PFR:18, 3B:3, FcB:67, AF:1.9, Hands:274

in case u missed 'em

Thanks, I missed them. I'd definitely give a wider range for button then - he could easily peel stuff like J7 and 67. Discounting lower straights and combo draws/pair+draws from his flop raising range seems unrealistic too.

Yeah I'd give him sets, straights, 2prs and big draws, esp combos. Can't see this being anything other than a lovely stack off.

Thanks guys, but as i said in OP, i'm more interested in how you guys would go about assigning a range (PreFlop and Flop) for BTN

y'know...things you might be able to infer from HUD stats, any Top Tips, etc., etc.

Given cut off has called, it's difficult to assign btn a narrow range given the odds he's getting and the existing gap between vpip and pfr. Generally, I'd expect most villains to flat here:

Any suited connectors 54+
22-99
A2s-AQs
All suited gappers 53+
Some suited two and three gappers
Most broadways
Some higher, non-suited connectors

27-18 button is going to go multiway ip most of the time with a huge fish already called = range is going to be pretty wide here. Take out or at least discount QQ+/AK/AQ cos he's going to squeeze these for massive value vs the fish at least some of the time, the fish may also mean that he's going to squeeze light less often. So preflop likely calling range 22-TT, suited connectors and gappers, ATs/AJs/A2s-A5s, other suited broadways.

Flop. When you bet this big 3 way on such a wet board with a 55-0 left to act you rep some solid strength, co folds so reg knows he's hu vs a strong range. And he raises. He has overpairs/two pairs/straights/sets/combos (including things like tp3k+oesd). I doubt he has any air in there, folding 66, etc.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

30,690 games 0.000 secs 6,138,000 games/sec

Board: 8h 9h Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.633% 62.36% 01.27% 19138 391.00 { TcTs }
Hand 1: 36.367% 35.09% 01.27% 10770 391.00 { JJ, 99-88, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KhQh, KhJh, QJs, QhTh, JhTh, 76s }

good stuff - thanks guys

[note to self: more work needed here, sunshine]