25nl draw misses vs nit reg

villain is 13/11/3 (VP/PFR/3b)over 70. has folded to 2/2 3bets and stolen 27%. 50/50 fold/call vs flop cbets. hasn't done anything remotely out of line. he sees me as 22/19/5 cbetting 5/5 flops and cbetting 0/2 turns. has no reason to think i'm particularly aggressive or spewy

from the turn i planned to overbet missed rivers to get him to fold better flush draws (hearts), T9, Jx and maybe even some Q's if he can make hero folds vs polarised ranges. and obviously to value bet (smaller) on rivers i hit. good plan or spew?

edit: preflop sizing slightly larger than normal because BB is a fit or fold loose passive fish

PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $25.35
Hero (CO): $31.38
BTN: $25.00
SB: $29.64
BB: $30.82

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has 8:club: 7:club:

fold, Hero raises to $0.75, BTN calls $0.75, fold, fold

Flop: ($1.85, 2 players) J:club: 5:heart: Q:heart:
Hero bets $0.70, BTN calls $0.70

Turn: ($3.25, 2 players) Q:club:
Hero bets $2.25, BTN calls $2.25

River: ($7.75, 2 players) 2:spade:
Hero bets $8.25

This line looks bluffy to me, I can't see a competent hand reader folding a queen or a jack. Rather than brute force I'd bet something that looked really value-y but wasn't small enough for him to sigh call, like $4.25. By shoving you polarize your range a lot because all the draws missed and you aren't going to be able to get value from much if you are ridic strong.

c/f the flop, not even close. A quick rundown as to why

We block 6combos of hands we are trying to make fold. This one should instantly run through your head before you bet.

The flop nails his range pretty hard.

Now once we get to the turn we pick up equity but we are NEVER making him fold better except some hands we have 15 outs versus anyway...

Once you take your image into account(cbetting flop 100%) etc. this makes the flop/turn play terrible.

edit: I have no clue what you are doing on the river. It's probably a good spot to bet like 11$ w/ a Q etc but a horrible spot to bluff just because it would be insane to think enough people are on the level to convince themselves to fold a J here especially for the pretty good price you are giving them.

Everything above, didn't really look before the river and thought we'd flopped the flush draw - my bad :) What I posted re: river bluffs may be useful for other hands tho IMO.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

Now once we get to the turn we pick up equity but we are NEVER making him fold better except some hands we have 15 outs versus anyway...

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realised that in play but i felt like there was a lot of EV to be harvested on the river by getting lots of folds the 80% of the time i wanted them (due to large sizing) and lots of calls the 20% of the time i wanted them

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

edit: I have no clue what you are doing on the river.

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polarising my range in an attempt to get him to fold what i felt was the majority of his (Jx). i felt like a nitty regular would be under the assumption, and probably rightly so, that overbets from people who seem like regs are always the nuts at these stakes.

edit: ^ not an attempt at defense of my play. just outlining the logic behind

thanks for going into flaws in CBing flop. appreciate it

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Pascal

This line looks bluffy to me, I can't see a competent hand reader folding a queen or a jack. Rather than brute force I'd bet something that looked really value-y but wasn't small enough for him to sigh call, like $4.25. By shoving you polarize your range a lot because all the draws missed and you aren't going to be able to get value from much if you are ridic strong.

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thing is i couldn't see him folding Jx to any size that i would actually bet for value here. the plan was to take care of Jx by bombing the river and making him shit his pants. felt like anything below $6.5 or therebouts would be getting sigh-called at way too high a frequency so i had to either check and abort the plan or bomb the river. not saying i'm necessarily right on that one though. haven't got much experience in when overbet bluffs are appropriate...

Why would you want to polarize your range when villain's range is bluffcatchers? If you want to bet the river as a bluff, it'd be better to bet small to rep a more depolarized value range cuz when you do this you'd never have AJ. Cheaper to do it and doesn't have to work as often too.

Hmm, don't like this one. Given your stats suggest you're a solid player, the small flop bet and then the river bet stinks of a bluff. If a muppet was doing this however, it's an easy fold for villain without a big hand.

I prefer a smaller river bet combined with a bigger flop bet if you're going to go with this hand against the nit. A smaller river bet would get the job done in folding out villain's busted draws and save some money when nit calls with his queen.

Not a fan of the river bluff. Pre is good don't like a cbet and esp not a double barrel.

I used to do this all the time though.

if you're going to cbet this flop then bigger
but what eyecandy said re cbetting here

Your line reps 222 that for some reason decided to barrel turn, missed draws (there are many) and other assorted air. I guess you fold out the busted hearts on the river, but there's far more combos of hands that will call and you don't need to overbet to fold out that range. A+ spew!