Bottom Set OTF vs 1.5 x Pot X/R, Wet Board

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
DoubleJ (UTG) ($11.96) 120bb
CO ($10.74) 107bb
BTN ($13.22) 132bb
SB ($8.37) 84bb - VPIP:50, PFR:10, 3B:11, AF:3.0, Hands: 20
BB ($10) 100bb

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 5 players) DoubleJ is UTG :8c: :8s:
DoubleJ raises to $0.40, 2 folds, SB calls $0.35,

1 fold

Table is short, CO & BTN are both tight. I'm raising here for value and get a call from Fish in SB

Flop: :8d: :jd: :tc: ($0.90, 2 players)
SB checks, DoubleJ bets $0.50, SB raises to $2.36, DoubleJ ???

I flop bottom Set and bet (my sizing is odd here; i'd usually go bigger vs Fish/drawy board) and he X/Rs to 1.6 x Pot.

I've seen him make a PSB raise OTF HU when he had AA (Q hi, 2Tone board), so i don't believe he's bluffing.

Range-wise, can i put him on {TT,AJs,KJs,QJs,Q9s,JTs,97s,AJo,KJo,QJo,JTo}? i'm piss-poor at working out calling ranges, so any pointers here'd be appreciated

Given VPIP/PFR over even such a small sample Id have this guy labelled loose/passive and our only aim on this flop vs this action is to get all the money in.

Range wise as VPIP is 50 - id have 99, A9combo draw any two pair and any set, KQ, Atcombo draw

Its certainly not an 80/20 but id expect to get it in sometime really bad but often good occasionally flipping. If he even gets a competent range in on the flop then he will have outs...

Against a more competent opponent this is more tough

Thanks Miffy, old bean...

i say, would you mind awfully talking me through how you got that range? or maybe and idea of your process?

pip pip

Looks like a no brainer shove to me. Are we expecting him to 3bet JJ pre? What about TT? Not that I think it matters. We have good equity vs the nuts, we crush tptk, 2pr and overpair if he has them, and the only two hands that dominate us he must 3bet with at least some frequency, so he has them less often. He can easily have combo draws like A9dd, which I think we're the better end of a flip with, so that gives us a little more equity vs his range.

Get it in, he's folding nothing to a shove that he makes this raise with.

And definitely bet this flop more.

The first part is assumptive on the VPIP/PFR of your opponent. 20 hands is not a lot - but still points to the fact they are unlikely to still be any good (a 30/20 over 20 hands could still just be a 16/14 or 21/18 on a card rush) the big difference between the VPIP/PFR is more the guider.

We are assuming then your villain is not so good, so preflop you villain could literally have half of the deck.

Weight of preflop hands is Ax, pretty broadways (QTs) and sooted crap (any broadway, pair sooted is 40% of hands)

Thus on the flop you take those assumptions and apply them to a flop range - hence a straight, any 2 pair, a set, TPTK, perhaps even QQ and combo draws all make up his range.

If you put all of that into pokerstove vs your hand you get something like this

Board: 8d Jd Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.612% 63.24% 01.38% 19407 422.50 { 8c8s }
Hand 1: 35.388% 34.01% 01.38% 10438 422.50 { AcAs, AdAs, JJ-99, AcJc, AhJh, AsJs, Ad9d, KdTd, JTs, J8s, JTo, J8o }

Ive not added every 9x diamond draw, but you could if you wanted - this is why ranges are never exact as each person has an opinion (some better than others)

You then need to apply this to the hand - even if you are behind vs the nuts you still have outs, so you arent getting it in dead. But there are scenarios where you can get it in almost dead - but thats a cooler vs the type of player we have assumed (again against a competent TAGG you can fold very strong 2nd best hands sometimes)

The last thing id add is - wdo you think a player who just made top two with JTo is going to not play for stacks? when he 'likes' so much pre hes going to love it post if it makes a hand - hence id stack off, be good a lot, really bad occasionally, but expect villain to have outs a moderate amount of the time - even assuming his range is not just j2o (lol i haz top purr!)

Also, the hands that have you crushed would normally 3bet pre - so they have to be discarded a lot (JJ/TT) so you are increasing your equity again with those fairly simple observations

Hence, after all that ramble, which may or may not be accurate, get the money in quick while you expect to have an equity edge a lot of the time

Yeah i'd shove here as well. If its set over set its just a cooler we know this guy will stack off with worse made hands and big draws, also hands that are ahead of us but we have outs against those 79 and Q9. Just get it in and take a note of what he has as miffed says you'd expect to be ahead here more often than not vs this villain.

Shoving against this villain - there's enough draws, combo draws and 2 pair in villain's range.

i'd shove but probably not expect to win the pot any more than 60%ish of the time

Quote:

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Originally Posted by rpm

i'd shove but probably not expect to win the pot any more than 60%ish of the time

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Yeah I'm estimating something like 60%. Still, no brainer with this much equity.

Stick it in pretty obv.

Just to nitpick. He raised just under pot fyi. 0.9+0.5+0.5(His call)=1.9, 2.36-0.5(His call)=1.86. 1.86 into 1.9 is not nearly 1.6x pot.

o cock - i keep forgetting about all dat

thans Yaawn

Get it in. Villain's pre-flop calling range is probably less than his 50 vpip since he's calling a raise rather than limping plus he's oop. But he's probably still quite wide, which indicates that his range has quite a few holdings where he hit his hand and is still behind - 2 pr, pr plus draw, etc. Plus if he's a passive fish, we can't completely rule out an overpair. So, while you're not way ahead of his range to call an all in, it does look like you're ahead.

cbet bigger, you aren't folding this flop vs villain as described, and calling is bad so..