NFD OTF vs All-In - Line & Maths Check

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($5.40) 54bb
UTG+1 ($10) 100bb
CO ($10) 100bb - VPIP:19, PFR:15, 3B:7, cBet:75 AF:2.0, Hands:251
DoubleJ (BTN) ($10.50) 105bb
SB ($10.38) 104bb
BB ($3.36) 34bb

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) DoubleJ is BTN :td: :ad:
2 folds, CO raises to $0.40, DoubleJ calls $0.40, 2 folds

I'm calling here IP w/ a decent Implied odds hand. Villain is tight/reg; aggro stats are F:1.5, T:1.6, R:6.0, but when he makes a move, it's often been an all-in. None of these hands have shown down.

Blinds are both weak/loose. Might come along too, unlikely to squeeze.

Flop: :ah: :8d: :9d: ($0.95, 2 players)
CO bets $0.91, DoubleJ raises to $2.27, CO goes all-in $9.60, DoubleJ ???

I flop TP+NFD. Villain cBets from OOP, which doesn't tell me much (???). I raise to either take it now, or juice it (Yes? No? Sizing?). He shoves over.

I'm getting 1.75:1 (36%). Even if I put him on something as tight as AA, 99-88, A9, A8 I think i'm still good to call here. Comments?

Pretty easy call.

vs sets we have 32.5% equity, once you start throwing in AQ+ 2pr and flush draws, our equity improves dramatically.

vs sets and all 2pr combos, we're 47%.

pause for a few seconds then call

Why bother with a pause when it's an all-in call?

What does this accomplish? :confused:

I'm taking as long as it takes to figure out I need around 33% and that I have lots more. As soon as that lightbulb goes off in my head, it's a snap call.

Just looking at his flop bet... maybe we should just call. I mean he's betting over the pot, this is a clear value bet on a draw heavy board. I don't think we have much fold equity, and we're behind his continuing range. Taking dead money and rake into account, it's close, possibly -ev. If we call, we need to win more money when we hit to justify calling, but not much, and he's not folding sets, aces up or AKd on a bink turn.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Shotglass

pause for a few seconds then call

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wtf why

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I'm taking as long as it takes to figure out I need around 33% and that I have lots more. As soon as that lightbulb goes off in my head, it's a snap call.

Just looking at his flop bet... maybe we should just call. I mean he's betting over the pot, this is a clear value bet on a draw heavy board. I don't think we have much fold equity, and we're behind his continuing range. Taking dead money and rake into account, it's close, possibly -ev. If we call, we need to win more money when we hit to justify calling, but not much, and he's not folding sets, aces up or AKd on a bink turn.

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At the risk of sounding ridiculously stupid....

How do you work out you have 33% and also what is fold equity?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

Why bother with a pause when it's an all-in call?

What does this accomplish? :confused:

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nothing. I was joking which doesn't come across real well online...sorry if I caused any confusion

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I'm taking as long as it takes to figure out I need around 33% and that I have lots more. As soon as that lightbulb goes off in my head, it's a snap call.

Just looking at his flop bet... maybe we should just call. I mean he's betting over the pot, this is a clear value bet on a draw heavy board. I don't think we have much fold equity, and we're behind his continuing range. Taking dead money and rake into account, it's close, possibly -ev. If we call, we need to win more money when we hit to justify calling, but not much, and he's not folding sets, aces up or AKd on a bink turn.

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If he's holding AKd then I'd be complaining to the gaming client.

Ok I'm drunk, stoned and just about to leave to go and get more drunk and more stoned, so excuse me if I drift into nonsense...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

How do you work out you have 33% and also what is fold equity?

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I work out we have over 33% by counting our outs, which I make 12 (9 diamonds, 3 tens, I'm not counting aces because they're probably not good), there's 45 unknown cards in the deck, so we have 12/45 for the turn and 12/44 for the river if we miss turn, which I estimate very quickly to be around 45%, but since our tens aren't always good, and sometimes sets redraw to full house, I guess we have around 40%.

Fold equity is the % of hands in his range that he folds to a bet or raise. I'm sure there's articles on this site that can explain it a billion times better than I can, I'd advice you trawl through the beginner's digest and read more about fold equity, it's a wonderful weapon.

Have a nice weekend people!

fold equity
If you bet, Villain will re-raise x% of the time, call y% of the time, and fold z% of the time. You have z% fold equity to bet with air. You have equity based not on your own hand, but on the villain's response to a bet.

E.g. If Villain will fold 50% of their range to a C-bet from you, then you have 50% equity to bet with ATC. You will win the pot if you bet, simply because villain will fold.

Ah OK, thank you both.

id have broken my call button hitting it so hard here