10nl FR - Turned straight facing river donk

Easy fold on the river?

I only bet half pot on the turn as I figured there is a likely flush draw out there on the flop, but that seems just terrible logic on reflection - agreed?

UTG+1 is 14/10 short stacker, passive post flop but willing to get it in pre with 88+, AJ+. Probably views me as fairly aggressive.
MP3 is a 29/14 over 85 hands, seems fishy, overly aggressive post flop and will barrel and stack off with top pair HU.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($9.65)
BB ($10)
UTG ($10.60)
UTG+1 ($7.98)
MP1 ($4)
MP2 ($12.84)
MP3 ($8.21)
Hero (CO) ($12.41)
Button ($10)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $0.40, 2 folds, MP3 calls $0.40, Hero calls $0.40, 2 folds, BB calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.65) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.60

Turn: ($3.45) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets $1.70, UTG+1 calls $1.70, 1 fold

River: ($6.85) Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $3, Hero???

call. not thrilled about it tho.

Bigger on the turn get value from anything they want to call with, make them take bad odds.

Call river.

Does he have a flush here over half the time? Because if not, just min raise him all in, he's calling his entire range, which includes 2prs sets and AhK.

I think we're winning this over half the time. So I min raise.

I think we go all in. I'm with ONG.

it certainly isnt a fold ever - just not thrlled enough that its a raise

:shipit:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Miffed22001

it certainly isnt a fold ever - just not thrlled enough that its a raise

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It's a simple question of what range you put him on. If we're +50% against his range, and he calls his entire range, raising him all in is +ev.

I make us around 78%. He's reasonably tight pre and is raising from ep, so I doubt he has that many flushes. KQ is the weakest I've given him. I think he has KJs sometimes too. I've given him 88 but not 77, that's obv questionable too. But we're so far ahead that any adjustments in his favour won't change things drastically enough for me to to think we ever drop below 50%.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

23 games 0.031 secs 741 games/sec

Board: 5h Jh 7h 8d Ks
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 21.739% 17.39% 04.35% 4 1.00 { KK+, JJ, 88, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, KJs, T9s }
Hand 1: 78.261% 73.91% 04.35% 17 1.00 { Td9d }


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I don't know why he c/c's the flop with almost all of the hands you listed that we beat. There aren't many hands (like 3 combos, like you said) that have a flush+ here, but his range is HEAVILY weighted toward that.

How would you interpret this hand with these timings?

Flop: Villain snap called
Turn: 7-8 second delay before checking, 7-8 second delay before calling
River: Fired bet

Quote:

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Originally Posted by surviva316

I don't know why he c/c's the flop with almost all of the hands you listed that we beat.

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Yeah I get this, I don't know why he c/c anything on this flop when he raises utg+1. If he can c/c fd+overs, then why can't he c/c JJ or AA? Maybe he thinks he's trapping, maybe it's retarded flop pot control with the nuts vs "flush draw that will probably get there" type thinking, idk. I don't dismiss sets, but maybe I should. Certainly he can have KK, I wouldn't expect AA to make this river bet though so yeah I do have him too wide.

If he has fd+overs, I expect him to cbet. The fact he doesn't cbet doesn't mean I take it out of his range, but if he can c/c big draws as ep pfr, he's passive enough to c/c sets here as well, I think.

Timing tells point towards flush, or KK with heart, imo. Guess that might influence me into just calling this river bet.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

If he has fd+overs, I expect him to cbet. The fact he doesn't cbet doesn't mean I take it out of his range, but if he can c/c big draws as ep pfr, he's passive enough to c/c sets here as well, I think.

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It's a 4-way pot on a wet board. These factors make it almost impossible that a TAgg would consider checking the nuts here. Meanwhile, these factors make it more likely that he will mistakenly think he has no FE and so plays a nut draw more passively.

I guess I'm reading too much into hero's read that villain is passive post flop.

I laughed when I stoved our equity vs AKhh AQhh KQhh KK... obv it's 50-50 (3 combos either side), so taking rake into account, min raising him all in is -ev.

pre and flop are good. more on turn for more value. the fact that he C/C'd the flop and didn't C/R (especially OOP vs this small size knowing it will go 3 handed) makes me think he has never flopped a set and probably doesn't have KK either. so i like just calling the river.