5nl - KK vs Aggregation from UTG

Villain - 17/17/3.8


BTN: $9.56 (191.2 bb)
SB: $6.02 (120.4 bb)
BB: $4.93 (98.6 bb)
UTG+1: $6.70 (134 bb)
UTG+2: $5.95 (119 bb)
MP1: $5.54 (110.8 bb)
MP2: $5.05 (101 bb)
Hero (MP3): $5.02 (100.4 bb)
CO: $8.82 (176.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K:diamond: K:spade:
UTG+1 raises to $0.15, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.45, 3 folds, BB calls $0.40, UTG+1 raises to $1.82, Hero ?????????

I think, above, villain has AA pretty much 80% of the time since UTG raising has a lot of strength. I was hoping QQ or another KK so bad lol. But surely next time in this position I should be folding against villain's 3bet ranges which are similar to his? Or is folding KK here a bit nitty?

As played though I got lucky: calls $1.37, BB folds

Flop: ($4.11) 4:club: K:heart: 8:diamond: (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $1.37, Hero raises to $3.20, UTG+1 calls $1.83

Turn: ($10.51) T:spade: (2 players)
River: ($10.51) 3:club: (2 players)

I totally agree with both your concern and your assessment.

I think a 17/17 villain at 5NL is only 4-betting with AA & KK, but you have KK, so there are 6 combos of AA and 1 combo of KK left. That makes Villain's range 86% AA and 14% KK. And I'm not completely sure this villain would 4-bet the KK, anyway. Some of the nits at 5NL slow-play monsters in the donkiest of ways.

I've personally donked off a lot of monies in spots just like this. It seems that when it goes to a 4-bet pot pre-flop against a tight player, they're broadcasting that they have AA.

Congrats on the flopped set, but let the fact that you were ahead/behind when the chips went in be the "results oriented" analysis you take away from this.

I speak as someone who has only managed to fold KK once preflop, and who just the other day stacked off like a huge donkey with AK against a nits 3bet, but yeah, sometimes you just gotta fold.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 22.618% 15.59% 07.03% 11209632 5056266.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 77.382% 70.35% 07.03% 50594604 5056266.00 { KK+ }

Well done for even considering whether this is a fold - I don't think many people at these limits are even capable of giving this any thought.

I'd just like to say that you should not raise this flop.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by d0zer

I'd just like to say that you should not raise this flop.

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+1

Quote:

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Originally Posted by d0zer

I'd just like to say that you should not raise this flop.

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Yeah, even though I doubt villain is folding AA we cant be 100% sure he has AA. So we could extract more value from calling and him being OOP and the aggressor from the previous street he is likely to bet again and depending on stack size and bet size shove turn?

What would've been interesting is A on turn haha.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by d0zer

I'd just like to say that you should not raise this flop.

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calling here gets more value in? c/r or 3bet turn?

Station him down, with reasonable size bets all the money is going in by the river anyway.

If he checks the turn or river, bet - if he folds, you weren't getting any more of his money anyway.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by WeldPhaser

calling here gets more value in? c/r or 3bet turn?

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We're IP this hand. I'd call, call, call or jam river or w/e if he doesn't put the money in.