Low Flush - River Advice Pls

I don't think villain shows up with anything other than the nut flush here often enough to make the call profitable at 10nl. Experience and database also tells me I'm probably right, albeit only 38k hands played.

UTG is 8/7 over 133 hands, AF=3.0 and 0% cbet over 2 hands. Villain also timed out on flop.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($4.17)
SB ($9.44)
Hero (BB) ($12.77)
UTG ($10.51)
UTG+1 ($11.14)
MP1 ($10)
MP2 ($4.40)
MP3 ($11.61)
CO ($11.08)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7h-8h ,
UTG bets $0.40, UTG+1 calls $0.40, 6 folds, Hero calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.25) Qh, 9h, 3c (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks

Turn: ($1.25) Jh (3 players)
Hero bets $0.60, UTG calls $0.60, 1 fold

River: ($2.45) 6d (2 players)
Hero bets $2.10, UTG raises to $9.51 (All-In), Hero???

fold pre, bet more on turn, call river

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

fold pre

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this

rivers probably a fold, don't mind the call pre at all as long as UTG+1 is really bad.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

rivers probably a fold, don't mind the call pre at all as long as UTG+1 is really bad.

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how often does he have to spazz or play a set retardly here given that theres like 1 better flush combo? do we really just put him on AK and fold? i feel like im missing something

edit: i guess he could have AT or KT so yeah fold

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

How often does he have to spaz or play a set retardly here [...] ?

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Final decision:
amount to call: $9.51 - $2.10 = $7.41
pot: $2.45 + $2.10 + 9.51 = $14.06

(7.41)/(7.41 + 14.06) = 34.5%

You must be right more than ~1/3 of the time to make the call +EV.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

how often does he have to spazz or play a set retardly here given that theres like 1 better flush combo? do we really just put him on AK and fold? i feel like im missing something

edit: i guess he could have AT or KT so yeah fold

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I mean he's 8/7 over 133 hands. I don't think there's a chance at all that he spazzes and yes our opponents range can be narrowed to 1 combo sometimes.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

Final decision:
amount to call: $9.51 - $2.10 = $7.41
pot: $2.45 + $2.10 + 9.51 = $14.06

(7.41)/(7.41 + 14.06) = 34.5%

You must be right more than ~1/3 of the time to make the call +EV.

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yeah i meant the frequency that he has to take that line with like 9's, j's, q's

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

yeah i meant the frequency that he has to take that line with like 9's, j's, q's

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It's the same question. That equation shows how often you have to win to break even in ANY gambling situation. It's far more broad-reaching than just being insanely useful in poker.

The frequency that you need to be right (holding the winning hand) is the same as the Villain "spazzing out" (betting with the worst hand.)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

It's the same question. That equation shows how often you have to win to break even in ANY gambling situation. It's far more broad-reaching than just being insanely useful in poker.

The frequency that you need to be right (holding the winning hand) is the same as the Villain "spazzing out" (betting with the worst hand.)

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i wasn't asking about the frequency that we need to be right i was just pointing out how often he has to take that line with his 9 combos of sets given that he only has 1 combo that beats us, and that's not 34%

edit: if we wanted to find the actual number we have to estimate how much to discount the AKs because of his flop check

I suppose my question is, when villain tells us such a convincing story that they have the nut flush, are we really calling here despite the relatively low percentage required to call?

My database tells me I've been raised on the river 3 times holding a flush on a non-paired board prior to this hand and each time they've had it - I've shipped twice and flat called a min raise once but this is the first time I've been shipped on.