Do you bet this river?

Button ($63.99)
SB ($53.08)
BB ($83.45)
UTG ($36.10)
Hero (MP) ($140.77)
CO ($96)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Ad, 8d
1 fold, Hero bets $2, CO calls $2, 3 folds

Flop: ($4.75) Qs, As, 8h (2 players)
Hero bets $2.27, CO calls $2.27

Turn: ($9.29) 5c (2 players)
Hero bets $8.87, CO calls $8.87

River: ($27.03) 5d (2 players)
Hero bets $25.81, CO calls $25.81

Total pot: $78.65 | Rake: $2.50

He turns over QQ.


He is 30/27, cbets 80% and is generally pretty aggro. His range for calling preflop is:

{AQ, AJ, AT, KQ, KJ, QJ, Axs, 99-22}

That's 225 combos. Possibly I should be adding some smaller SCs here.

CLEARLY I sould be adding QQ, but I didn't expect him to flat with it, he's very aggro and I never saw that coming.

When he calls the flop bet, he's got:

{AQ, AJ, AT, Axs, KQ, KJ, 88}

So of the range that I did put him on, he would call or raise here with 36 combos that are ahead and 88 that are drawing or behind with little chance of improvement.

In fact, given his aggro stats, I'd expect him to raise AQ and possibly AJ, certainly 88 so that's 22 combos of those 36 that I don't think he'd flat with, leaving only 14 that he would flat with which beat me.

When he calls another bet at the turn, I don't really think his range has changed from calling the flop, but am I wrong to be thinking this way?

The river doesn't really change anything either, so again, his range in my view was unchanged. However, perhaps his earlier calls should have changed my action at the river even though I never imagined I'd see him turn over what he did.

Go play 2NL. Best advice I can give you atm. Way more money saved by taking this advice then any amount of advice I can give you on this hand.

You say he's aggro, and the more aggro he is the more you can discount QQ/AQ type stuff. So it's even less likely you're beat here by an aggro player than a passive one.

This is an easy river bet, and you are ahead most of the time. Bad luck to be beat.

easy river bet.