KK overpair, river play?

villain is 44-8 over 38, folded to 5/7 cbets so far, seen no sign of him bluffing or anything other than loose-passive. Flop and turn sizing? Check-fold river? shove river?

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($27.88)
daven (UTG+1) ($25.51)
MP1 ($25)
MP2 ($18.88)
CO ($22.88)
BTN ($37.75)
SB ($18.94)
BB ($10)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 8 players) daven is UTG+1 :kh: :ks:
1 fold, daven raises to $0.85, 2 folds, CO calls $0.85, 3 folds

Flop: :th: :2d: :6d: ($2.05, 2 players)
daven bets $1.50, CO calls $1.50

Turn: :6h: ($5.05, 2 players)
daven bets $4.30, CO calls $4.30

River: :qd: ($13.65, 2 players)
daven ($18.86)?

i think i go $6.5/fold. these spots trouble me though. don't like a shove because he may be folding too much Tx and not have enough Qx in his range to outweigh flushes/6x and give us our magical 50% equity

Quote:

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Originally Posted by daven

villain is 44-8 over 38

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This guy is a tard, value bet this river and fold to a shove.

You can't check this river against a fish!!

IMO a shove is probably overkill and would fold out a lot of the nice 2 pair hands you beat.

I'd bet, maybe $6-7, and fold to a shove (because he doesn't shove 2 pair over you here)

River: :qd: ($13.65, 2 players)
daven bets $6, CO raises to $13.25,

i think its hard for him to call 6 on this river with less than a Q. I wanna bet smaller. $4ish folding to a raise, maybe even smaller, its not like he can suddenly raise if he did hit the Q without a boat or a flush and unlikely he'd turn Tx or lower into a bluff.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kickass

i think its hard for him to call 6 on this river with less than a Q. I wanna bet smaller. $4ish folding to a raise, maybe even smaller, its not like he can suddenly raise if he did hit the Q without a boat or a flush and unlikely he'd turn Tx or lower into a bluff.

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But he'll call $6 if he hit a Q and maybe even with Tx. It's a nice v-bet. Betting less costs money against the majority of his range that we're vbetting against.

Fold to the raise Daven

how does it cost us money if he cant call when we bet bigger? it costs us money when he folds 77+ and when he raises us we've lost more. his range is small pairs looking to bluff catch Tx flush draws 6x sets/quads maybe JJ QQ.on this river only QT can call a bet if we bet half pot+ everything else folds or raises. unless he's a hopeless station which wasnt mentioned in the OP.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kickass

how does it cost us money if he cant call when we bet bigger? it costs us money when he folds 77+ and when he raises us we've lost more. his range is small pairs looking to bluff catch Tx flush draws 6x sets/quads maybe JJ QQ.on this river only QT can call a bet if we bet half pot+ everything else folds or raises. unless he's a hopeless station which wasnt mentioned in the OP.

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He'll call like $6 with all the hands we're vbetting against which is the majority of his range. 44/8 suggests hopeless station to me. Folding 5/7 cbets is consistent with fit or fold (where for station fit=pair). How is Tx from a 44/8 folding to $6 and calling $4?

Hence it costs us $2 when he has that part of his range we're vbetting, unless he folds Tx to $6 but calls $4. I'm not giving a 44/8 $2

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kickass

i think its hard for him to call 6 on this river with less than a Q. I wanna bet smaller. $4ish folding to a raise, maybe even smaller, its not like he can suddenly raise if he did hit the Q without a boat or a flush and unlikely he'd turn Tx or lower into a bluff.

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i like this
fwiw, here is my sizing in the heat of the moment - thoughts?

River: :qd: ($13.65, 2 players)
daven bets $4, CO raises to $8.25,

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gingerwizard

But he'll call $6 if he hit a Q and maybe even with Tx. It's a nice v-bet. Betting less costs money against the majority of his range that we're vbetting against.

Fold to the raise Daven

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i also like this, i'm looking for value from TJ/9T/JJ/88/AQ type of hands and he looks a lot like a flush draw so i have to bet-fold. So combo of max value vs min losses for max EV = i guess i have to do range scenarios later

Villain is a fish. I'd b/f like 8ish since I think most fish would call off ~2/3 psb w/ Tx.

$4 too small imo. i think anything up to $7 won't see significant changes in his calling range.

if he just lost a large pot recently id jam

Quote:

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Originally Posted by daven

i like this
fwiw, here is my sizing in the heat of the moment - thoughts?

River: :qd: ($13.65, 2 players)
daven bets $4, CO raises to $8.25,

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still folding