Dealing with MTT Variance

Hi all, first post here but always enjoy reading the different views. Basic gist is that I've been playing nearly 2 years now and always been profitable on a monthly basis (roi>200% last year playing $3-$11 mtts), but I'm on a run of bad beats and lost coin flips at key times in tournaments this year.

Bad beats don't bother me generally, but these sustained bad beats are new territory and starting to get me down, not to mention they are now making my plays a bit ragged sometimes. I've just taken a few days off to read up and think about my game, only to get annoyed when I continued with the beats tonight (including getting my deep stack in twice on the flop when 92% near the bubble).

My question is: how do other players mentally deal with periods of sustained negative variance where they can't get a deep cash and manage to keep playing their a-game?

There are no "sustained bad beats". There is just one, and then another. Moving toward accepting that is the only way. It is hard to do, but just using that phrase sounds like you are thinking in gambler's fallacy like terms - due to win a flip, have my over pair hold, draw hit, etc. It is human nature - that's why someone wrote down the gambler's fallacy - but you have to fight against it.

First, stop telling bad beat stories. They all suck and telling them gives them power and weight in your mind.

second, try and forget the whole "profitable on a monthly basis" thing. I know it's hard because we measure life that way, but luck doesn't read the calendar. you are a big favorite to have long, bad stretches.

third, keep playing and getting better.

that's it.

most people don't deal with it, and it poisons their game just like you've experienced. A few people run good in the right spots and it makes it easier to take.

^^^ What the doc said ... strings of luck don't exist.

Having good bankroll management helps a lot when it comes to not getting too stressed when running bad.

What they said.

+ Read Tommy's "Element's of poker".

Keep calm and carry on. ;)

Thanks for the advice all. I'm okay with beats and didn't intend for the OP to be another bad beat story - I'm not one of those that claims the software's fixed if I lose with pocket rockets as a one-off for instance, whilst ignoring the fact I've won the last 3 times I've got the money in with aces pre and won. The question is more about whether is there anything that other players do when running well below average "luck" at key times for ~80 mtts that can help me continue to keep doing the right things, rather than getting annoyed and starting to force hands in marginal situations? Does anybody run through an internal monologue for instance, or usually try and get a good work-out in before a session? How about typing "nh" into the chat box after a beat? Or sitting out after a beat for a few minutes or taking a few days off to read or forget about the game completely?

There's some good advice above and I'm currently managing my BR very prudently (risking no more than 1-2% per night I play), but after losing 10% of my roll this month, I'll admit I'm starting to get a bit agitated..

play other forms of poker. Grinding MTTs is totally soul-crushing, I honestly have no idea how anyone can do it.

Review your plays, both hands that you won and lost, and see if there are areas you can improve. Check out your stats and plug your leaks.

Treat each decision independent of the previous decisions and without bias. I never tilt because I've internalised pretty much everything that is written in this thread. You should realise that 200% ROI is unsustainable, so you were undoubtedly on some positive variance and now what's happening is negative variance.

Do yourself a favour and turn off your luck line ... it will drive you insane and isn't really a good yardstick. Also develop a just don't give a f*** attitude. If you are ecstatic when you win 30BI in a day and depressed when you lose 10BI in a day, then playing poker is going to be a pretty emotional roller-coaster for you.

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Originally Posted by The Bean Counter

Thanks for the advice all. I'm okay with beats and didn't intend for the OP to be another bad beat story - I'm not one of those that claims the software's fixed if I lose with pocket rockets as a one-off for instance, whilst ignoring the fact I've won the last 3 times I've got the money in with aces pre and won. The question is more about whether is there anything that other players do when running well below average "luck" at key times for ~80 mtts that can help me continue to keep doing the right things, rather than getting annoyed and starting to force hands in marginal situations? Does anybody run through an internal monologue for instance, or usually try and get a good work-out in before a session? How about typing "nh" into the chat box after a beat? Or sitting out after a beat for a few minutes or taking a few days off to read or forget about the game completely?

There's some good advice above and I'm currently managing my BR very prudently (risking no more than 1-2% per night I play), but after losing 10% of my roll this month, I'll admit I'm starting to get a bit agitated..

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I'm sorry but if you are making a thread based off an 80 MTT bad run then poker might not be the game for you, lol.

Seriously, if I were you I'd take a look at the kind of game swings that long-term winning regs have via sharkscope, and then realize that 80 games means nothing... Even a 1000 game downswing is really common. I'll grab a couple of really good FTR people's graphs (names removed) as examples.

http://shup.com/Shup/544359/11203194915sharkscopeth.jpg

4500 game break-even stretch between games 2500-7000 from one of the best MTT players I know.

http://shup.com/Shup/544360/11203195241sharkscopeth.jpg

My graph for all sites, showing what's basically a year-long 5000-game breakeven stretch in 2010 (games 2500-7500).



The point is, ask questions when you dont know how to play hands, and just try to avoid making too many mistakes. MTT Poker is kind of like playing a +EV version of the lottery... You cant assume you're doing anything wrong when you lose over long stretches, and you cant assuming you're doing everything right when you win either. Just stick with it!

Working out is a good idea and will make you a better player over all, but I don't think it will help in this specific circumstance.

to follow up Syke's graphs, check this out, it uses Shawn Deeb's #s to show swings:


Life as an Online MTT Pro by the Numbers (It’s Hard) | NoahSD's Awesome Poker Blog

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Anyone except a true tourney god is more likely to lose over 100 tourneys than to win, which also sucks, and even a great tourney player has a decent chance of losing over 1k+ tournaments

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I know a lot of professional MTT players. Losing months are incredibly common for them, and losing years happen fairly often.

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Thanks for the stats and advice, even it does make depressing reading for the part-time player...! I still think I'd be disappointed with <=break even over 1,000 mtts in the low level donkaments I play in, but these graphs and the advice have helped to reassure me through my first blip and control my agitation.

Welcome to MTT's ..............Learn to love the swings !

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Originally Posted by drmcboy

Working out is a good idea and will make you a better player over all, but I don't think it will help in this specific circumstance.

to follow up Syke's graphs, check this out, it uses Shawn Deeb's #s to show swings:


Life as an Online MTT Pro by the Numbers (It’s Hard) | NoahSD's Awesome Poker Blog

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all mtt pros are true masochists imo.

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Originally Posted by bikes

all mtt pros are true masochists imo.

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Alot depends on what you want poker to achieve for you. I have a part-time job, and my wife makes enough at hers that I can be a stay at home dad/poker player and even when I make <zero dollars in a month, we still pay the bills. My poker income goes towards savings for a house and entertainment.

If you're playing for a sole living, its VERY difficult to play MTTs with a family, and you probably need in excess of 1 year's living expenses in your savings account to even attempt it. As a single guy, you can "live on the edge" with just a few months savings, knowing that you have other options if MTTs dont work.

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Originally Posted by Sykedupp

Alot depends on what you want poker to achieve for you. I have a part-time job, and my wife makes enough at hers that I can be a stay at home dad/poker player and even when I make <zero dollars in a month, we still pay the bills. My poker income goes towards savings for a house and entertainment.

If you're playing for a sole living, its VERY difficult to play MTTs with a family, and you probably need in excess of 1 year's living expenses in your savings account to even attempt it. As a single guy, you can "live on the edge" with just a few months savings, knowing that you have other options if MTTs dont work.

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Ive done it as a single male living in a rural part of Missouri (USA) , and it all depends on your lifestyle and how much you need to live comfortable . I operate with about 4 months of expenses covered , then the rest goes towards building my roll taking shots . I adjust as the swings go up and down , overall it can be stressfull at times but I think most peoples jobs are stressfull just for different reasons.

It can be tough at times but "have grind on the mind" and overall I have enjoyed the last 3 years of my life a lot more than the previous 5 where i worked for other people everyday !

Just joined this forum today. Have been playing online for about 10 years and have been a fish for most of those years. Played for recreation and was not aware EV,bank role management, etc. High Card, I think the best thing you can do is to spend time reading posts from this and other sites. Read books on you poker. Whether it is strategy or moral suport. This and other sites can give it. Keep learning and plugging the holes. Good Luck.