89s flops flush, facing reg turn shove - 25nl

villain is chinese reg 16-12 over 200, folded to 2/8 flop cbets, won at 6/8 showdowns. The two flushes he has that beat me are KJ and JT. He beats AsKc, although i guess he could hold that himself. AQ? Sets? 76cc?

if it's relevant, i'm running 16-15-7 at this table and have been here with him about 90 hands.

does 2:1 make this trivial? or does a nit jamming the turn vs strength make it interesting?

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($12.10)
hero (UTG+1) ($25)
MP1 ($30.13)
MP2 ($10.04)
CO ($13.25)
BTN ($36.29)
SB ($29.73)
BB ($8.37)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 8 players) hero is UTG+1 :9c: :8c:
1 fold, hero raises to $0.85, 3 folds, BTN calls $0.85, SB calls $0.75, BB calls $0.60

Flop: :ac: :qc: :6c: ($3.40, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, hero bets $2.80, BTN calls $2.80, SB folds, BB folds

Turn: :th: ($9, 2 players)
hero bets $5.80, BTN raises to $27,

What! Fuck folding if thats what your saying. Btw fold pre! He doesn't think you could hold a flush, cos you shouldnt be able to.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kickass

What! Fuck folding if thats what your saying. Btw fold pre! He doesn't think you could hold a flush, cos you shouldnt be able to.

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kickass wins the thread within minutes of it being posted. I hadn't even thought of that while i was timebanking - cheers

Damn, nice post, kickass.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kickass

What! Fuck folding if thats what your saying. Btw fold pre! He doesn't think you could hold a flush, cos you shouldnt be able to.

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^

I would never open fold this hand preflop on any random table at ssnl

yah opening this is fine. call turn because there are only 4 flushes in his range (at most) which beat us, and he can have sets which "played it safe" on the mono flop and are now going crazy on a blank turn

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

I would never open fold this hand preflop on any random table at ssnl

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interesting. I fold 89s quite often from this position, probably not a huge leak? I feel like i open too many scs from ep, but maybe that isn't really the case. Off to look at HEM. Where it appears that from both ep and mp I'm opening 67s-TJs 50%, c-betting them 60% and breakeven over the process. Guess I don't fold them as often as I thought.

Looks like i don't play them that well vs 3bets though? 67% fold, 14% 4b, 19% call

folding 89s from UTG+1 cannot be a leak

however, the leak could possibly be your reasoning behind not playing it

i think pre is meh.
im not folding cause lots of his range that were ahead of plays like this etc...

Snippity snapple.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bigspenda73

however, the leak could possibly be your reasoning behind not playing it

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hey spenda would you mind expanding on this? or if anyone else understands it and wouldnt mind enlightening me that would be sweet.

this is probably a fold. i also strongly disagree with the 'you shouldnt be able to have a flush' idea because it's wrong.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bikes

this is probably a fold. i also strongly disagree with the 'you shouldnt be able to have a flush' idea because it's wrong.

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cheers for the post bikes.

how about if this statement was replaced with something like 'flushes are only a small subset of my range at the point where he raises the turn'?

it's interesting - I mean, i obviously can have a flush because I do have a flush. What flushes are realistically in my range? I guess KJcc, J9cc, JTcc, T9cc, 98cc, 87cc (although discount some cos these are folded by most players a reasonable % from UTG+1). Rest of my range for calling his jam (i'm pretty sure his jam is value) is AA/QQ/AQ?/AxKc?/ATs - but calling ATs here would be bad, which is worth noticing.

What's his range for jamming that beats me? KJcc (discounted), JTcc is pretty much it. What else could he be jamming here? AA (discounted), QQ, 66, AQ, AxKc. Maybe some baby flushes, 76cc/65cc
do you think these ranges are about right? or am i being very optimistic here?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bikes

this is probably a fold. i also strongly disagree with the 'you shouldnt be able to have a flush' idea because it's wrong.

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I was bemused by that too.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by daven

What's his range for jamming that beats me? KJcc (discounted), JTcc is pretty much it. What else could he be jamming here? AA (discounted), QQ, 66, AQ, AxKc. Maybe some baby flushes, 76cc/65cc
do you think these ranges are about right? or am i being very optimistic here?

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he cant have 6c its on the board.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by daven

What else could he be jamming here? AA (discounted), QQ, 66, AQ, AxKc. Maybe some baby flushes, 76cc/65cc
do you think these ranges are about right? or am i being very optimistic here?

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I think his most likely hand is KcJx.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kickass

hey spenda would you mind expanding on this? or if anyone else understands it and wouldnt mind enlightening me that would be sweet.

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I mean if you're just folding it because some PF chart tells you to do so, then yea, you should just play blackjack. If you're folding b/c you have loose aggressive players in position behind you that will make life difficult, then cool. If there are tight players in LP and bad players in the blinds, then I'm opening this and expecting to play post-flop in position against bad players with a hand that flops nicely.

I see, thank you Monsieur spenda. Much apreciated even if you do advise me to go play blackjack.