MTT JJ 3-bet from LP

ITM already, but I don't remember the exact number of people left, probably about 25 or so.

Do you flat or 4-bet/get it in here?

There was a big debate between two experienced poker players in my house and one wanted to flat in this spot and the other wanted to 4-bet/get it in.

Hero's is 16/13, so likely has a relatively tight image. My opponent was something like 36/24/1.0 over 8 hands with no 3-bets yet.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 55 Tournament, 1500/3000 Blinds 300 Ante (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (MP2) (t85928)
MP3 (t95970)
CO (t130796)
Button (t121178)
SB (t77322)
BB (t47227)
UTG (t116418)
UTG+1 (t29525)
MP1 (t49382)

Hero's M: 11.93

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif
3 folds, Hero bets t6200, 2 folds, Button raises to t13750, 2 folds, Hero ??

Can we break this down to basics? Do they still apply at this stage? I think perhaps they should given stacks here. Both are very much live, so we don't have to try steals / resteals with rubbish.

Why raise (shove in this case)?

1) For value from weaker hands.
2) As a bluff to fold out stronger hands.

1) Well, he's not calling with any weaker hands unless he's got exactly AK. So we gamble 50/50 with our very playable stack.
2) He's sure as hell not folding any of the hands that beat us. QQ+ And we're drawing slim indeed.

We could debate TT and AQ perhaps as 3 bet hands that calls, but it's not likely?

I also think that we should be mindful of the stacksizes behind him when he made his raise. The blinds are definitely likely candidates for shoving over here, particularly the BB, and that for me really makes his range more nuttish imo since he looks like he's looking to call them off. This could be levelling, but again it's something to bear in mind.

I therefore think we get more value from our hand which is strong, just not *that* strong against his likely 3bet range if we call and get a low flop. I'm OK here about figting another day if I have to lay it down on the flop.

I'm pretty happy flatting this.

I guess I don't see the point in flatting OOP. There is better than a 50% chance that a Q, K, or A is going to flop when we flat JJ.

If we are flatting with the plan to c/r when the flop does come T hi or lower and are planning on c/ folding to a Q, K, or A hi flop then we are letting the button bluff us off a ton of hands and we are still getting our asses cleaned out when he has QQ-AA.

My standard play here would be to 4-bet to like 27 or 28k with the plan on GII. We are OOP against a big stack who is on the button and has shown that he likes to play hands in the orbit that he has been at the table. Since he has only been at the table for an orbit he should have no idea about your tight image. The button's range is so wide here but JJ is a moderately difficult hand to play OOP that I just make the hand easy to play and 4-bet and commit myself.

If he folds, that's fine. If he shoves, that's fine too. With less than 30 BBs I have no problems losing with JJ all-in preflop.

Agree with last post entirely.

Get it in.

shove, don't like small 4 bet at all

I don't hate a shove but I like a go'n'go better here.

We're OOP so we get to shove any flop and raising to 28k can induce spazzy big stacks to bluff shove pre.

I didn't know Nak lived in a sick poker house.

In a lower buy-in tournament I'd shove, I see the merits in inducing spazz against more aggressive players who presumably won't flat.

Wow, quite a mix of responses in this thread. FWIW I 4-bet to 27k and villain snap-folded.

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Originally Posted by baudib

I didn't know Nak lived in a sick poker house.

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Yeah, I live in a pretty bitching house in the Philippines. You can live like a boss here for next to nothing. Girls go wild for foreigners too.

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Originally Posted by baudib

In a lower buy-in tournament I'd shove, I see the merits in inducing spazz against more aggressive players who presumably won't flat.

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One of the beauties of the go'n'go is that we don't even care if they do flat since we will just shove the flop anyways.

I'm happy flatting this with a C/R plan for T-high flops or any J, and C/F plan for A,K,Q high flops, because the pf pot odds are nice, and our implied odds against his range are excellent because he bets like 100% when checked to.

Certainly there is nothing wrong with shoving pf or even with a go and go (although if he shoves over pf, it's pretty ugly). I just think both force him to play correctly and may not be as +EV as flatting.

what hands do you think they will make a mistake with after we 'go and go'? I can't imagine you get enough 5 bet bluffs to make it worth considering in the line. We have 8 hands and he played 3 and never 3 bet, I don't understand why you're putting weight on that.

You help them fold lots of smaller pairs and give a great price to overs since you're always paying them off but they get to fold when they brick.

play makes much more sense to me as a bluff than with JJ, I would rather flat than small 4b.

yeah you both have nailed the drawbacks of the go'n'go, and I agree that it can blow up in your face... but I still like it.

I think you are underestimating the spew factor. People spew all the time - they just can't help themselves. A biggish stack at the end stages of a tourney are prone to spew at a higher frequency in my experience so a 5 bet bluff here is definitely worth considering in the line.

The basic thought process is you've left yourself with 20 BBs, there are only 25 players left to go, you really don't want to bust now so fuck you, let's see if you can call a shove.

So I am actually putting more weight into stacksizes and position than I am into him having played 3 of 8 hands and not 3 bet yet.

Anyhoo, a shove is fine here but I think it just forces him to make one of 2 decisions - call or fold, and that is a pretty easy decision to make. When we 4-bet to 28k it gives him 3 decisions and allows him to make more mistakes: we can induce him to make a bad call because he is getting "a great price" with an underpair that he would have folded if we shoved; we can induce him to shove with a worse hand; or he shoves or folds anyways and then it doesn't matter since we were going to shove as well.

those aren't 'more' mistakes from a chip EV standpoint, just different. for example him set mining 99 is a small mistake whereas the times he calls a shove it's a huge one.

and if he has overs you're setting yourself up to make large mistakes and he never can.

his 5B shove isn't going to be that terrible if he has an over.

I am not saying the go and go is bad, just that I don't like it with JJ. I would rather have a 4b shove range here of mostly medium strength hands with JJ and QQ at the top and save 4b small for bluffs and probably AQ+,KK (edit - removed AA).


what hands are you go and going here?

arguments like this can become circular.

for example - you are correct that we miss value versus an opp who setmines 99 here and folds when we shove postflop but would have called our preflop jam. But we also make value from an opp who would fold 99- to a jam but will call our preflop raise to "setmine" and then will often compound that mistake after getting attached to the hand and call postflop as well.

Likewise you are correct that we are giving him much better odds to 5-bet bluff with a hand like Q9s which he surely would fold when we shove, but that's one of the main points here - we want him to get it in with a worse hand we don't want him to fold it.

I am likely go'n'going my entire range here - that is any hand that I feel is good enough to shove pre, I would set up the go'n'go with. With AA and any flopped monster hand I am likely go'n'stopping, but I am still setting up the go'n'go with those hands.

In the end, I don't think this makes a huge difference. What matters more is that we both understand what the upsides and downsides are to the go'n'go and openshoving.

Yeah I guess I don't understand not having a shove range here. You must be flatting a lot of hands and you're saying you don't ever 4 bet bluff?

I'm not sure what you're saying about Q9 except that again I don't buy that randoms 5 bet bluff other randoms in these spots so we'll have to agree to disagree that it matters.

if you think he'll 5 bet often, surely it would make sense to shove lower pairs if you don't want to shove JJ? With JJ it's great if he jams T8, with 66 it's terrible.


also to clarify my post above I think we should flat AA here.

I was curious about the math so I gave him an SC with an over, it's around 33%, down to about 28 % for QT off. If he has QJs he has 36%! Even say K2s has 30%.

Pot is ~55k after we 4 bet to 28k and we have ~58 left. so 1/3 he wins a pot of 170k, 2/3 he loses 58k. 58k is 33% of 170.

Is that math right? It's actually a smaller mistake than I thought, I mean you could easily argue meta factors make it a great play although we'd have to compare overall equity vs your go/go range.

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Originally Posted by drmcboy

Yeah I guess I don't understand not having a shove range here. You must be flatting a lot of hands and you're saying you don't ever 4 bet bluff?

I'm not sure what you're saying about Q9 except that again I don't buy that randoms 5 bet bluff other randoms in these spots so we'll have to agree to disagree that it matters.

if you think he'll 5 bet often, surely it would make sense to shove lower pairs if you don't want to shove JJ? With JJ it's great if he jams T8, with 66 it's terrible.


also to clarify my post above I think we should flat AA here.

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Not having a shoving range here is simply due to the fact that we are in a great go'n'go spot. Stacks are lined up such that I can believably bet 1/3 of my stack preflop in a heads-up pot where I will be first to act if he calls. And that's really what the go'n'go is best for - it is set up to maximize value against players whose biggest mistake is calling too much preflop and that's probably the biggest mistake most players make.

So yeah, pretty much if I am continuing with a hand in a spot like this (where I have limited reads) I am going to set up the go'n'go with my entire range. And that range includes bluffs as well - this line looks strong so I have no problem doing this with hands that I will bluff with as well. The go'n'go is perfect in my mind to use against randoms because it is set up to maximize value against players who will actually make the mistake of calling us preflop here. I like the go'n'go with shitty hands because it increases our equity with them (we turn hands that are approximately 50/50 preflop into hands that are more like 65/35 in our favor on the flop). I like the go'n'go with big equity edge hands preflop because it gets much shittier hands that would fold preflop to call. And I like the go'n'go with hands that are dominated preflop because we can often get a better hand to fold postflop.

My point about Q9s was simply in response to your point that 4-betting small here minimizes his mistake of 5-bet shoving. I agree that 4-betting small does give him better pot odds so it minimizes his mistake of getting Q9s all-in pre, but what I was pointing out is that in the end it still is an accomplishment because we got him to go all-in with Q9s preflop.

And yes you are right that inducing spew is not really what we want with hands like 77-, but on the other hand we are fine with them calling pre and folding postflop in those situations.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by drmcboy

I was curious about the math so I gave him an SC with an over, it's around 33%, down to about 28 % for QT off. If he has QJs he has 36%! Even say K2s has 30%.

Pot is ~55k after we 4 bet to 28k and we have ~58 left. so 1/3 he wins a pot of 170k, 2/3 he loses 58k. 58k is 33% of 170.

Is that math right? It's actually a smaller mistake than I thought, I mean you could easily argue meta factors make it a great play although we'd have to compare overall equity vs your go/go range.

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I'm not capable enough mathwise to argue this point well I don't think.

If we 4-bet to 28k and villain calls then the pot will have about 63k. We will have about 58k left.

But it isn't as easy to say 1/3 of the time he will win an all-in pot and 2/3 of the time he will lose an all-in pot postflop because some of the time he will just fold postflop when we shove and this includes times where he has the best hand (e.g. on an AQx flop).

getting him to 5bet jam Q9s isn't good for us, it's neutral EV, so that should not be a part of the reason you want to go and go vs not. We don't know how often (if ever) we'll get him to fold the best hand so I don't really see how to factor that in.

In both cases I think all of these are unlikely, he won't 5 bet or flat the 4 bet very often, and it's much more likely he'll have a strong hand when he does so. So our line should focus on strong hands.

the 50/50 vs 65/35 - I guess you're saying they will call and then fold since they miss 2/3 of the time? that is true, but those 2/3 they don't lose anything post flop but when they hit they win a ~ pot sized bet off you depending on your equity. which gets you back to 0 EV.

So again speaking generally it seems like there is no EV with a hand like JJ where your equity will be really low when they out flop you. If you had AK or KQ, you'd have 6+ outs a lot more often. Or an sc where you'll often have a decent draw when called.

that is what I'm getting at - you keep defending the play in general, I don't think it's a bad play, but I don't understand why we need to do it with our entire range. If this was someone we saw all the time it would be one thing (still not sure but it's interesting) vs a random I want the best line for each hand, not the most balanced line.

sample size of stats for villian is meaningless. I'd OPR villian... I'm more likely to flat a good player and check/jam almost any flop, and just 4bet cram bad players... Good players will call you correctly preflop and you give them a chance to put another bet in postflop.

Gotta be prepared to let your hand go on A high flops though, which blows. Maybe 4betting is better vs any villians?

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Originally Posted by drmcboy

getting him to 5bet jam Q9s isn't good for us, it's neutral EV....

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This is completely false and flawed logic.

By go'n'going we manipulate our stack size so that VILLIAN is making a neutral EV play, but we make a vastly +EV one.

If we 4bet jam he folds Q9s, we gain the 27k in the pot, our stack goes to about 105k 100% of the time.

If we 4bet small and he spaz shoves Q9s, we're now in a spot where we are 68% favored to have a net chip gain of +92828 68% of the time, and a loss of -79428 (antes minus our raise) 32% of the time.

92828 * .68 = 63123 chips
79428 * .32 = 25416 chips

63123 - 25416 = +37707 chips, which is a 30% gain in our chip equity vs shoving, and we didnt even have villian make an EV mistake.

And that doesnt include the amount of times he calls preflop and folds flop.




Then you also have to consider the times he has AK and calls preflop and then calls us perfectly postflop, which is your other big worry.

If we get it all in preflop, we're 56% to net +92828 and 44% to lose -79428.

92828 * .56 = 51983
79428 * .44 = 34948

51983 - 34948 = +17035 chip differential shoving.

Now, compare calling. He flats our 4bet to 28k. there's now 56k + 7200 (antes/blinds) in the pot. AK hits the flop 1/3 times. He folds 2/3 times, or 66.66% and we gain the 63.2k in the pot. He calls 1/3 times, and we're in bad shape (10% or so on most A or K high flops) to scoop whole pot.

+41400 (See my post below for how I got this number) chips 66% of the time (+27324 chips)
+92826 chips 10% of the time (+9283 chips)
-79428 chips 24% of the time (-19062 chips)

= +17545 chips on average, which is just a marginal increase, however there are 2 MAJOR points that I take into consideration here.

#1: In the first scenario, we go bust 44% of the time and are completely out of the tournament with no chance to push other stacks or do any of that fun stuff, and in the 2nd scenario we only go bust 24% of the time... So, considering the EV of both plays is pretty close, I'll take the lower variance/lower bust rate option.

#2: My math in the 2nd scenario doesnt include the (I admit, rare) flops like KJ3 and AJ8 where we both hit, and flops like TJx where he flops a flush draw and we're favored still, etc. So the actual chip equity in the 2nd situation is, IMO, a bit higher. Combine that with lower variance and that's my play whenever possible.


Now, there are lots of other variables in this hand, but there's no doubt that go'n'going is definatly more profitable then shoving if villian EVER flats preflop, or EVER 5bet spazzes.



Edited to add: My math might suck, I'm having a stress overload cause my kids suck. Feel free to refute it if you feel I did something wrong.

See, I suck, already found an error in the 2nd part of my math.

We dont have a net gain of +63200 66% of the time, we have a net gain of 63200 - (28000-6200), because we cant include our 4bet as part of what we gain when the 4bet itsself is the question. So, we have a net gain of 41400 66% of the time. I'm going to edit the numbers in my long post.

To me that says the EV of us open shoving pre and him calling with Q9s is the same as him 5bet shoving. Obviously the result is the same, but when he 5 bets there is a lot more dead money in the pot.

I do not understand how you can make a play that is (chip) +EV for you and yet neutral EV for your opponent. Where do the chips come from?

is it just 41400 * 68, which would be 28152 and more or less = 25416?

The second part is correct with AK but only because we know he isn't going to ever fold it pre. If you could have gotten him to fold AQ or KQ it would be much better since the EV of the go/go is 0.

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Originally Posted by drmcboy

To me that says the EV of us open shoving pre and him calling with Q9s is the same as him 5bet shoving. Obviously the result is the same, but when he 5 bets there is a lot more dead money in the pot.

I do not understand how you can make a play that is (chip) +EV for you and yet neutral EV for your opponent. Where do the chips come from?

is it just 41400 * 68, which would be 28152 and more or less = 25416?

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That's because it is the same, to us. We're getting our stack in with 68% equity for a double-up either way, but we've made villian make a play that while it seems neutral/fine to do, actually benefits us greatly.

It's kinda like the opposite of what ripptyde used to do (lol, name-dropping). His big thing was 3betting 47o and then making a huge raise on a 35x board, then when he got shoved on he technically "had odds" to draw to a gutter/overcard/whatever. So while the actual call of the flop shove wouldnt be a 'math-based' mistake, the hand getting to that point is the big mistake. We're doing the same thing to villian here.

The mistake villian makes isnt 'math-based'... It's him 5bet shoving with zero fold equity and only 13750 invested in the pot.

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Originally Posted by drmcboy

The second part is correct with AK but only because we know he isn't going to ever fold it pre. If you could have gotten him to fold AQ or KQ it would be much better since the EV of the go/go is 0.

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No, the EV would stay (roughly) the same if he flats with AK, KQ, whatever. So a go'n'go would still be +~17545 chips, but the first equation changes.

We raise to 6300, he makes it 13750, we shove he folds. We gained 13750+blinds/antes (7200), or just under 21k.

So, if he has exactly KQ or AQ and 3bets, then shoving is better then 4betting small. However, you can never range somebody to just those 2 hands, and math has shown that in every other common circumstance 4betting is > shoving. Shove > 4bet when villian holds exactly 2 hands doesnt really mean much.

Also, many villians still call with AQ sometimes so really KQ is the only hand that shove is def > 4bet

Are you are saying that the EV of him calling a shove with Q9s with 7200 in the pot is the same as him calling a shove with 55k in the pot? how can that be true?

mistakes are all 'math based' or they aren't mistakes.

I get that ranges are more than 2 hands, but:

he'll fold most of his range
we're dead to better hands regardless
AQ and KQ are among his mostly likely hands to 3 bet along with QQ+ and AK.

So getting a better result vs those two hands is important. Further, I think shoving is much better vs any pair below ours - mostly 88-TT - that will will continue with which are the other likely hands he might 3 bet.

to be clear, 3 betting Q9s vs JJ is of course a mistake, but it's already been made when he has to decide whether to 5bet, call the 4bet or fold.

Also you say you want the lower variance route but you only consider that vs AK. vs hands he might fold pre flop those folds for sure reduce variance. he is getting 3/1 to call pre if we 3 bet to 28k so again he's making a best a small mistake calling unless he manages to play his had truly badly.

EDIT - not sure if the variance is worth it or not, this seems super hard to calculate since we don't know how often he continues post. just saying it should not be an argument just for AK.

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Originally Posted by drmcboy

Are you are saying that the EV of him calling a shove with Q9s with 7200 in the pot is the same as him calling a shove with 55k in the pot? how can that be true?

His EV is different in those 2 situations, obv. We've achieved the same result that getting called on an open shove would achieve, so our EV is the same.

It is possible for him to make a +EV play after we've already made a +EV play.

Example, if we were getting 20:1 on a preflop all in and we call and he has AA, the call is +EV call for us to make. That doesnt automatically mean the guy with AA made a -EV move by getting it in with us.

mistakes are all 'math based' or they aren't mistakes.

This is true, I used the wrong wording. His mistake in the hand wouldnt be 'math based', his mistake is assuming he has anything other then 0% Fold Equity when he 5bet shoves. So it's a 'spew based' mistake, that we goaded him into doing.

I get that ranges are more than 2 hands, but:

he'll fold most of his range
we're dead to better hands regardless
AQ and KQ are among his mostly likely hands to 3 bet along with QQ+ and AK.

lol, I think you have some serious flaws in his 3bet range. Any competant villian is 3betting WAY more then those hands - probably most hands in the top 10% as well as sc's. The small hand sample we have on him also suggests he's pretty wide. I'd range his 3bet as something like 55+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo and some random sc's. Exactly AQ and KQ plays a very small part in that range.

So getting a better result vs those two hands is important. Getting a better result vs less then 5% of the hands in his range isnt important. Further, I think shoving is much better vs any pair below ours - mostly 88-TT - that will will continue with which are the other likely hands he might 3 bet. In my experience go'n'going, I find that players will 5bet or flat the 4bet just as often with low-mid pps then they will a 30bb shove. This is obviously open to interpretation though, and cant be factually determaned one way or the other. Regardless, 88-TT is a pretty small part of his range as well, and I think go'n'going is still > 4betting vs 88-TT.

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Originally Posted by drmcboy

Also you say you want the lower variance route but you only consider that vs AK. vs hands he might fold pre flop those folds for sure reduce variance. he is getting 3/1 to call pre if we 3 bet to 28k so again he's making a best a small mistake calling unless he manages to play his had truly badly.

The chance a hand like A9s or 77 or QJs has to out-flop our hand is pretty minimal, so I dont think there's much variance in letting them make the mistake of seeing the flop, it's not like they have 6 outs like they do with AK/KQ/AQ.

Also, "he's getting 3/1 so its not making a mistake" is a bad comparison to make because you're not including the fact that he's also facing a PSB shove on 100% of flops... AND even if he hits he's sometimes no good (A9s on 9 high flops, 77 on 5 high flops, etc).

It's ALWAYS a mistake to flat this 4bet, which is why I love when people do. Even with AA, the money's getting in no matter what so flatting is = to shoving, it's never better to flat then it is to shove or fold, and I'd be very interested to hear if you or anyone else has any math to disprove this somehow.

EDIT - not sure if the variance is worth it or not, this seems super hard to calculate since we don't know how often he continues post. just saying it should not be an argument just for AK.
Obviously shoving and getting folds 100% of the time is the most variance free, but that doesnt mean it's optimal (or else we'd just always open ship AA preflop 100% of the time, lol), and I've proven a few posts ago that when dealing with an entire range of hands as opposed to just a certain few that 4betting and letting him spaz or flat a small % of the time is gonna make us more chips long term.

I dont think it increases our variance much either because the % of times he's going to spew/flat a hand he would have folded to a shove is going to be relatively low (<10% of the time).

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90%+ of the time, a 4bet accomplishes the same thing that a shove does. ~10% of the time, the 4bet gets us more equity then we would have if we shoved.

his range to 3 bet may be 10%, but his range to continue against our 3 bet is no where near 10% and AQ and KQ play a big part.

What I'm saying is that I don't think a random is going to continue with many hands worse than KQ+,88+. So improving results vs 88-TT and KQ, AQ is huge since 4b vs shove against QQ+, AK doesn't matter much since we'll almost always be all in pre anyway.

if your goal is to maximize against this really wide continuing range you would have to consider flatting as compared to 4b or shoving. You haven't proved anything against an entire range of hands, you prove it with two and I still don't understand the math you used. Yes, him 3 betting vs JJ is a mistake but it isn't a mistake against our range.

How could it not be better for 88 not to flat the 4 bet vs shove? he now gets away on lots of flops he would have been stacked on. This is what I keep saying, if we had KQ there would be lots of flops he would make a big mistake folding on, JJ not any.

I'm assuming 88-TT and KQ fold pretty easily to a shove preflop, unless villian is just terrible which we dont have the reads for. So yes, I'd rather they flat my 4bet or 5bet shove with 88-TT/KQ as opposed to folding it to the 4bet shove.

I mean, if we think his calling range preflop is looser then JJ+ AQs+ AK, then I def prefer just overbet shoving to max value vs the stupid hands he calls with, but IDK where you'd get this kind of information unless villian was running something like 40/30 over a large sample and showed to overvalue low pairs.

I get it from the same place where you get that he will flat 4 bets or tool out with Q9s. In my experience people will call 30 BB jams with medium pairs a lot more often than they will go crazy with random hands. More important, those mistakes when they make them are larger than any others they are likely to make.

Re the flats where all this equity comes from, the actual price pre flop is 14250 (4 bet size) / 113078 (55150 (pot size) + 57928 (our stack)) since we jam all flops. So around 8/1.

Q9s has 50%+ equity vs JJ on it's best 20% of flops, so if he calls on all those and folds the rest, we are in trouble. Q9s has 30% on it's top 30%. If the board is 9 high with a bd fd he has 25% equity so again that mistake is fairly small.

with 88, again with the 8/1 price I don't think he's making much of a mistake set mining - he's 8/1 to flop a set, with something like a 20-25% chance that we'll make a better one at the same time.

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% of times he's going to spew/flat a hand he would have folded to a shove is going to be relatively low (<10% of the time).

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so the small 4 bet gets us 10K extra chips ~10% of the time, do I have that right?

say he calls a shove with 88-TT ~10% of the time he has those also, but we get 58k chips or so when that happens

92828 * .8 = 74262 chips
79428 * .2 = 15886 chips

74k-16k=58k

I don't see how he can make enough mistakes when he flats to make it up + the benefit when he folds KQ/AQ.

Given you think he'll fold anything except JJ+, AQs plus and he has a wide 3b range and he will flat with some random stuff, I assume you are 4 bet shoving a wide range, just not JJ? which hands are those and why?

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Originally Posted by drmcboy

I get it from the same place where you get that he will flat 4 bets or tool out with Q9s. In my experience people will call 30 BB jams with medium pairs a lot more often than they will go crazy with random hands. More important, those mistakes when they make them are larger than any others they are likely to make.

Re the flats where all this equity comes from, the actual price pre flop is 14250 (4 bet size) / 113078 (55150 (pot size) + 57928 (our stack)) since we jam all flops. So around 8/1.

Q9s has 50%+ equity vs JJ on it's best 20% of flops, so if he calls on all those and folds the rest, we are in trouble. Q9s has 30% on it's top 30%. If the board is 9 high with a bd fd he has 25% equity so again that mistake is fairly small.

with 88, again with the 8/1 price I don't think he's making much of a mistake set mining - he's 8/1 to flop a set, with something like a 20-25% chance that we'll make a better one at the same time.



so the small 4 bet gets us 10K extra chips ~10% of the time, do I have that right?

say he calls a shove with 88-TT ~10% of the time he has those also, but we get 58k chips or so when that happens

92828 * .8 = 74262 chips
79428 * .2 = 15886 chips

74k-16k=58k

I don't see how he can make enough mistakes when he flats to make it up + the benefit when he folds KQ/AQ.

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If Villian calls on 20% of flops and is 50% to win when he calls, we are not in trouble at all, we've made an insanely +cEV move because he folds 80% of flops!

Likewise if he's 30% to win and calls 30% of the time. That means he folds 70% of the time and we win a ton of chips with no showdown, its unquestionably massively +cEV.


This debate isnt really going anywhere though because we arent assigning villian to the same ranges. If you think (as you said earlier) that villian is going to call a 4bet shove with 88+, AJ+ KQ, then we should for sure shove because we're 55% vs that range.

However, alot of the players I play against are good aggressive players, and I find that their 3bet ranges this deep on the button are much wider then their calling ranges are for shoves. As I said earlier I'd be surprised if most villians who arent nits arent 3betting something like 55+ AT+ QJ+ plus SCs for deception, however they'll only be calling a shove with something like TT+ AQs+ AKo, which we're not in great shape against (44%).

Now, this doesnt mean shoving isnt +cEV still, because it is. Villian is still going to fold to the 4bet probably 80% of the time, which means we win a decent pot without showdown 80% of the time and are 44% when we get called. It's a good deal still.

I just prefer to let villian sometimes make the mistake of flatting or shoving a hand they would have folded. This increases our equity with JJ against their range because there are more hands now in his range, thus increasing our cEV. I personally dont think there are any hands that he's calling a shove with that he wouldnt call/5bet if we clicked it back, and you do, which is partly why we're in this discussion.

This could also just be a case of me having FPS and assuming that random villian with 45bb deep in a $55 is aggressive/good.

he has 50% plus equity, not 50% exactly. on 15% or so (Qxx and 99x +) he has 85%. yes, he only plays 1 flop in 5, but he only paid 1/8.

OK so using your numbers in the post above this, 85% of the time we are +35200 (7200 in the pot before any bets, and assuming our 4bet is to 28k and he sees the flop and then folds)

+35200 cEV 85% of the time (when flop shove is not called)


then 15% of the time (the times he calls), we only have a 15% chance of winning the whole pot. If we win the pot after, our net chip gain is +92828, and if we lose (85% of the time) then our net loss is 85928.

+92828 * .15 (15% of outcomes when called) = +13924 Chips
-85928 * .85 (85% of outcomes when called) = -73038 Chips

13924 - 73038 = -59114 cEV 15% of the time


So, we're +35200 chips 85% of the time, -59114 chips 15% of the time, do you see where I'm going with this?

+35200 * .85 = +29920
-59114 * .15 = -8867

29920 - 8867 = +21053

If villian calls on 15% of flops, and he's 85% favored to win when he calls, we PROFIT, on average, 21053 chips each time we make a 4bet, if we use the numbers you used in your last post.


None of this really matters though, as I think if villian flats preflop he's going to a) be calling way more often then 15% of the time, and b) be way less then an 85% favorite when he calls.

This seems like the easiest 4bet ever, am I missing something. Calling OOP sucks especially since we may end up folding the best hand in a huge pot.

The debate now is do we like click it back or just overshoving... pretty sure call is off the table. My first post said flatting might be ok vs some players but I've changed my stance on that

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sykedupp

The debate now is do we like click it back or just overshoving... pretty sure call is off the table. My first post said flatting might be ok vs some players but I've changed my stance on that

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Why is flatting worse than 4-betting or jamming? His range likely contains some bluffs, so we are likely way ahead of his range. By flatting we give him the opportunity to make big mistakes when his range is much weaker than ours. It's not like we are check-folding every time an over card comes on the flop either.

your math is not right because he doesn't have 85% exactly either.

even if he did, you keep proving your 4 bet is 2-4BB better than shoving vs Q9. I'm saying it's a lot worse vs smaller pairs that we have a chance to get to make a 20 BB mistake. And which I think he'll have a lot more often than random bluffs.

This is pretty easy to figure out if you have a good idea of average 3b range/flat range and we can assume he will spew X%. Get propokertools and take the area under the curve where villain can get in post( IE, > 33% equity or w/e) Once you have this you can figure out villains eV postflop by flatting pre with whatever range.(This assumes villain plays perfectly obviously) You can ofcourse add in a few combos where he makes huge mistakes like TT/99 postflop to offset his perfect play otherwise. After that just compare it to eV of a 5b shove which I believe you already have worked out.

edit: if you want some help with figuring out a problem like this just add my skype and I'll be happy to help

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sykedupp

The debate now is do we like click it back or just overshoving... pretty sure call is off the table. My first post said flatting might be ok vs some players but I've changed my stance on that

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If you feel like you can induce a shove, small 4bet, otherwise just ship it in. You probably can induce a shove so i'd small 4bet, make it 23750 or around that so he feels like it's too much to call but there's room to shove over with a bluff.