aces, paired board, monkey-reg, 25nl

villain is kinda monkey and pretty loose and bad aggro
he might think i'm fos cos, yeah, too ez
river check-call, check-shove, or just triple lfdo??

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($20.25)
hero (UTG+1) ($25)
MP1 ($25.25)
MP2 ($28.03)
MP3 ($10)
CO ($53.28)
BTN ($41.87)
SB ($26.95)
BB ($22.88)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 9 players) hero is UTG+1 :ad: :ah:
1 fold, hero raises to $0.85, MP1 calls $0.85, 3 folds, BTN calls $0.85, 2 folds

Flop: :2d: :td: :ts: ($2.90, 3 players)
hero bets $1.80, MP1 folds, BTN calls $1.80

Turn: :7s: ($6.50, 2 players)
hero bets $4, BTN calls $4

River: :qh: ($14.50, 2 players)
hero checks, BTN bets $9.25,

I don't see what jamming river acheives. Not folding though, he probably has tons of bricked flush draws in his range, as well as the 10x 22 77 QQ. He might sometimes also have naked pairs and total air, so fuck it, I call happily.

I'd probably b/f $8-10

As played c/c.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Roid_Rage

I'd probably b/f $8-10

As played c/c.

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Do we expect him to call worse if we b/f river? He's almost always folding bricked draws, almost always shoving tens, and always shoving boats. b/f only gets value from crap pairs that he can't lay down, I guess I don't see him calling three streets often enough for that to be optimal. I could easily be wrong, but I c/c this river to tempt him into stabbing with air.

Touche.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

he probably has tons of bricked flush draws in his range

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he doesn't have Ad or Td in his hand -> less bricked flush draws than you might think

That's true. There can't be too many 10x hands in his range either, since he's flatting two streets on flushy board. Tough spot.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by daven

he doesn't have Ad or Td in his hand -> less bricked flush draws than you might think

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Still more bricked flush draws than T's.

I'm calling this river. Shoving turns AA into a bluff IMO

I'd just bet $7 on the river, we're giving him too much credit for being able to hand read decently, expect to see loose calls from weak pairs a lot of the time.

If we check river then calling is a must, diamonds and backdoor spades missed and if he's loose/aggro/bad then the possibility that he's doing something stupid like double floating is higher. 22/77 are the main hands that beat us here, Tx will usually raise earlier with 2 flush draws out there.

I don't like c/c rivers but this is a rare case where it might be best.

God, please bet the river.

i play this same, sucks that we have Ad

fold river. you only beat bluffs and hes never vbing worse

after reading the responses you all must be playing a different game.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bikes

fold river. you only beat bluffs and hes never vbing worse

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what? is this you leveling again? did you again post legit advice and then delete it? or are you serious? i never can tell with your posts anymore.

KQdd value bets here. Hell, A2 might. And there are missed draws. And i look like a missed draw.

i need to be good about 30%. I never even considered check-fold on the river. Bet-fold, c-call, c-shove. Am i completely missing the point here? should i consider c-fold beyond 'ridiculous, ok, what are the other options'

Quote:

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Originally Posted by daven

what? is this you leveling again? did you again post legit advice and then delete it? or are you serious? i never can tell with your posts anymore.

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do you even read what you post?

Quote:

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KQdd value bets here. Hell, A2 might. And there are missed draws. And i look like a missed draw.

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in what world do you live in that A2 valuebets here?

I think aggro-monkey is pretty polarized, I doubt he's doing some weird fish merge value bet with 2x. He pretty much has a T, a boat, a busted draw/float he's bluffing with. I just think he has more bluffs than nuts here.

combos of bluffs that would bet this river.

KJdd
MEBBE AND thats a big MEBBE
J9dd
98dd

value hands that bet this river.
AT-T8
22
KQdd - discounted due to sizing
TT
AA-QQ discounted heavily

if he bets QJdd its so thin it's almost a bluff at these stakes. infact i'm going to say its so thin that it is a bluff.

77 for value, probably T7/ T2 as well

This is a random "loose monkey" who's aggro on the btn in an NL25 game, he can totally have 43dd or J5dd unless the definitions of random loose monkeys has changed a lot since April.

I also sorta think this type of player will tend to jam the river with the nuts,but I could be wrong there.

edit: I also c/c here vs. decently aggro/floaty regs but if you're folding I'm going to reconsider that.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bikes

do you even read what you post?

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i sure do. What part looked illiterate? i seriously couldn't tell if you were posting legitimate advice or if you were taking the piss. Post quoted below suggests that you were in fact posting legitimate advice - cheers for that

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bikes

combos of bluffs that would bet this river.

KJdd
MEBBE AND thats a big MEBBE
J9dd
98dd

value hands that bet this river.
AT-T8
22
KQdd - discounted due to sizing
TT
AA-QQ discounted heavily

if he bets QJdd its so thin it's almost a bluff at these stakes. infact i'm going to say its so thin that it is a bluff.

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i doubt villain thinks in these terms, but maybe he does. I called and won at showdown. I'm not sure if villain was bluffing or betting thin value, he would probably mutter something about merging...

i give him a bunch of Tx, some 22/77/88/99/JJ, a tiny bit of 33-66, QdJd, KdQd, Qd9d, a bunch of pure bluff connected and gapped diamonds. For what it's worth, i discounted check-shoving almost as quickly as check-folding - leaving bet-fold and check-call as the only two options that i spent much time on. could be an error?

I think bikes is giving him a range like he's a slightly spewy reg where I was thinking he's like 64/40 or something. tbh your read is sorta vague.

I do think that most NL25 regs will happily check down QJdd here and probably KQdd.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

I think bikes is giving him a range like he's a slightly spewy reg where I was thinking he's like 64/40 or something. tbh your read is sorta vague.

I do think that most NL25 regs will happily check down QJdd here and probably KQdd.

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true, should have posted some stats.
25-19-6 on vp-pfr-3b
pretty aggro all streets
bets and raises a lot

that guy would probably be considered passive at NL100, right?

I'd still probably call but I recognize I'm a station, I can see how folding would be correct when we hold the Ad.

looks like a pretty simple c/c imo, unless you want to induce a bluffshove from whiffed crap if he's that aggro.

he never has Tx unless it's T7s, so only leaving TT/77 and 22 that beat us. reason I say never Tx as turn brought two flushes and I doubt many players would just call. esp if he's an agrro type player.

with good reads you could bet/call and get shown house/bluff, if you think he bluff shoves river enough. if not, then obv just c/c so he can bet his bluffs.

definitely not c/shoving river as I can't think of any hands that will call that we beat.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

that guy would probably be considered passive at NL100, right?

I'd still probably call but I recognize I'm a station, I can see how folding would be correct when we hold the Ad.

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very few regs at 100nl FR who have vpip above 19