JJ on river AKTT5 - 25nl

villain is 14-12 TAG who really hates losing at showdown (W$WSD = 70%)
Turn and river sizing?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (7 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($25)
BB ($10.57)
UTG ($10.75)
MP1 ($9.52)
MP2 ($25.60)
CO ($25)
Hero (Button) ($31.09)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif
2 folds, MP2 bets $0.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.85) 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif (2 players)
MP2 bets $1.14, Hero calls $1.14

Turn: ($4.13) Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $2.20???, MP2 calls $2.20

River: ($8.53) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $6??,

i'm confused

why did you bet the turn?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by d0zer

why did you bet the turn?

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as 6-out semi-bluff cos obviously I have a monster if the King doesn't scare me. But probably cos i was having a spew-monkey session is a better answer. Interesting.

Don't really like it. He's probably not opening ace worse than AJ here so I doubt you get enough folds from such a strong range. I mean maybe he folds KQ, but that's probably outweighed by AJ-AK when he takes this line. I'd want a really good read to bet this turn and defo wouldn't bet it unless I was planning on betting the river because I had some great read he folds these hands. I'd just showdown - you're ahead plenty here on the turn and he doesn't fold enough when you're not imo.

yeah just check it down

Okay ignore some of that lol the turn being a K means an ace is an ace here obv, but still I don't trust him to fold AJ/AQ etc.

I think turning our hand into a bluff on the river is the only street I like. I'd 3-bet pre and as played probably just fold everywhere.

Yeah think folding the flop is good.

check turn fold river if bet into he's not gonna fold kx or ax for u to start bluffing here just try to get to showdown and note what he shows down after doing this flop donk

Check turn. On river you're trying to make him fold AJ/AQ but success ratio won't be too high.

14/12 guy probably has a strong range at showdown rather than trying to win at every pot.

I would just fold the flop, barely any hands we beat apart from occasional gutters. Check turn/river to see what he lead with.

same size on w$wsd? i think u may be overvaluing stats like this they take a while to become credible some guys just go on massive heaters over a few k hands and these type of stats get skewed more than things like pfr etc

taking note of the actual hands/quality of hands villain gets to sd with is more effective and will have u avoid making incorrect assumptions based on a statistic that may be misleading you