AJo top pair facing 3 barrels OOP

this spot probably seems trivial to many of you. i'm going to ask anyway. villain is 21/16 with a 5% 3b over ~100. his ATS is 43% overall. he has cbet 4/4 flops, and 1/1 turns. i am comfortable flatting flop and turn because he is likely to have some worse Ax hands in his range for value, plus he could still conceivably be double-barreling some air or flush draws (not that i think that's a very good idea vs my range on this board). my question is regarding the river. do we expect him to go for three streets with AT? A8? his sizing, if anything, seems to suggest he is looking for value and is never just blindly 3-barreling some random shit. so does he attempt to value bet worse?

i would be quite comfortable folding this vs the 50nl FR regs i've encountered, but in 6m i'm not so sure of my reads. so call or fold?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG ($30)
MP ($52.35)
CO ($20)
Button ($51.50)
SB ($50.70)
Hero (BB) ($50.75)
Preflop: Hero is BB with A:spade:, J:diamond:
3 folds, Button bets $1.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $1
Flop: ($3.25) 4:heart:, A:club:, 9:club: (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $2, Hero calls $2
Turn: ($7.25) 5:diamond: (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50
River: ($16.25) 5:spade: (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $8, Hero?

Awkward spot... I think he can probably bet A10 here as well but I m nitty in these situations and will fold.

Not folding.

Very good pot odds. Call, take a note and re-eval the next time you're in the same situation.

Forget about his value-range, I wouldn't fold any Ax on the river for this price. He probably perceives a good chunk of your range to be flush draws so he will probably barrel to get you to fold KQcc or something often enough to make it a call.

def not folding

I feel dumb now. I guess should call because:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by griffey24

Very good pot odds. Call, take a note and re-eval the next time you're in the same situation.

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Feels weakish, I think AK, AQ, A9 would go bigger on the river.

I'd only be leaning towards a fold had he raised from EP/MP given those stats, sample size is fairly reasonable. And yeah you're getting 3:1 on the river and you're ahead of so much of his range.

It seems like ev+ call even w/ Khigh

thanks all for the input. it seems my perception of villain's range was way off. i thought it was remotely close.

size of the bet makes me say call, villain can too easily perceive your range as being overstocked with FDs and his bet looks like he wants you to fold while risking the minimum amount, its like he doesnt even want to see K high

And as has been said, if thats wrong this time its no biggy because the pots odds are good enough that its ok to lose most of the time.. and you gain a mountain of info by seeing him showdown here.

edit: at FR you'd be more sure about getting out of this since you're facing a much tighter continuing range.. i gather that's the basis behind your question?

you level yourself way too much if you think about folding here

it's a BTN opening range and you have the third best kicker, and since you didn't 3b he can and should be vbetting A8/AT.