25nl 6m, AQo double gutter, rainbow flop

i've recently made a switch to predominantly playing 6max games, i also dropped down a stake so whatever slight adjustments i need to make in switching from full ring to 6max will be less costly.

villain is literally a complete unknown. no history, and this is first hand at the table. he bought in full, so is perhaps slightly less likely to be a fish than someone who buys in for some busto amount like $19.37, but we are still relatively readless. on this rainbow flop with 4 nut outs, 4 2nd nut outs, and some potentially clean pair outs, i feel like i have such good pot equity against almost any range that i feel like i need to be being aggressive. however i imagine that on such a wet board vs a flop 3bet villain will likely 4bet ship or fold, never calling, which kind of sucks for my hand. fwiw here is what i think is a reasonable felting range for villain and my equity against it:

Board: Jd Th 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.593% 39.73% 00.86% 18488 400.00 { AdQs }
Hand 1: 59.407% 58.55% 00.86% 27242 400.00 { JJ-88, KQs, Q9s, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, KQo }

if the SPR were smaller i would obviously just ship because i have so much equity. however, there is a decent amount of money behind so i feel like 3bet/calling is kind of spewy because it basically shoves money into the pot in a spot where i am behind my opponent's felting range and he is likely to play "shove or fold" vs my 3bet, when i could flat with some money behind (though i realise my equity suffers on bricked turn cards).

also 3bet/folding completely sucks because by that stage i'll be getting a good enough price to call a shove.

i'm getting slightly better than 3:1 on a call, however my implied odds are likely pretty shitty when the turn is a 9.

thoughts on best flop play?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($31.29)
Hero (CO) ($35.99)
Button ($14.25)
SB ($27.03)
BB ($25)
UTG ($10.50)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A:diamond:, Q:spade:
2 folds, Hero bets $0.75, 2 folds, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.60) 8:club:, 10:heart:, J:diamond: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.20, BB raises to $3, Hero?

i am always calling in this spot and hope if i hit he cant lay down his set and pray he aint got the KQ or Q9s.

how do you think he plays blank turns with his pair+draw or worse hands?

or put another way.. do you think your positional advantage will ever allow you to steal the pot when he checks the turn? or allow you take the river for free.. can you make a profitable bluff on the river ever with the line, flop call, turn check behind, river raise?

his flop raise is more likely to be legit since he's out of position, bluffing from there sucks balls as the turn is always hard to play. I think your best move is call flop re eval turn... raising is probably ok once you have some history.

I'd rather check the flop vs unknown, cuz I can see lots of hands raise me here.

Quote:

---

I'd rather check the flop vs unknown, cuz I can see lots of hands raise me here.

---

Perhaps, but i don't see a lot of reasons not to cbet when you have initiative, position and outs..

We're assuming villeins c/r range is fairly strong since he called from the blinds and has a full stack. But I don't think we're getting paid on a 9 (stacked by KQ sometimes) and A/Q have loads of RIO so it might be a call still but folding is probably not terrible.

Checking back the flop looks better than a cbet since we have a hand with some showdown value that hates to get c/r'd (shitty spots like this), a board that nails our opponents range and a cbet here doesn't fold better (except 66-22) and worse doesn't call but may bluffraise. Position also makes the turn easier to play.