set on river facing raise

only 13 hands in villan 25/25


Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
SB ($25.77)
Hero ($24.75)
UTG ($25.02)
UTG+1 ($14.25)
CO ($26.18)
BTN ($24.49)

Dealt to Hero 8:diamond: 8:spade:

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $1, fold, Hero calls $0.75

FLOP ($2.10) Q:diamond: 6:club: 4:spade:

Hero checks, BTN bets $2, Hero calls $2

TURN ($6.10) Q:diamond: 6:club: 4:spade: 7:heart:

Hero checks, BTN checks

RIVER ($6.10) Q:diamond: 6:club: 4:spade: 7:heart: 8:heart:

[color=red]Hero bets $4, BTN raises to $13, Hero?

fold

I'm a fishy reg so I'm more posting thoughts than advice.

I'd look at it this way. What do you think beats you here & why would he bet like that?

From my view, the nuts would be T9, 2nd any 5 holding and 3rd QQ.

I'd take away QQ since he's got position & would surely want to build the pot rather than check the turn with top set unless he's massively tricky (just add a note if he does this to induce a bluff).

T9. You don't have many hands on him, but do you feel he's going to play that from UTG? It's very possible but just as impossible. With so few hands you would struggle to tell. He does have 16 chances to play it & there was no reason for him to bail out as you've put no pressure on him.

Any 5 holding. There's 4 & does the play fit? More likely in my opinion. He's likely to open 55 that way, do a cbet then check turn for control. An aggressive player realising he has 8 cards for the oe straight draw + 2 to make a set might well bet on the turn. You've not enough data to tell but. Other very good possibilities for 5 are A5s, 56 (but again, UTG?)

So that's what beats you.

Here's what you beat.

AQ, KQ, QJ, 66,44,77, any 2 pair like 67, 64, 78

For me, I think you're so far ahead of so many hands that I would call.

If I put in 26% range in to poker stove (includes 55,T9) against your 88 and come up with you being 99% to win.

As much as I respect Bike's abilities I can't see how this isn't a call. You are so far ahead of so many hands that would do this and get nailed by a any 5 or T9 combination. It's possible but I think you beat so many other hands (like 2 pair) that would do this.

I guess that's why I lose long term but :D

Moradis, do you believe he's raising this river with his entire opening range?

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but do you feel he's going to play that from UTG?

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its BTN raise not UTG

TY all

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Originally Posted by fulksy

its BTN raise not UTG

TY all

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My misread.

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Originally Posted by supa

Moradis, do you believe he's raising this river with his entire opening range?

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No not at all, what I am saying is a 5 or T9 beats the hero's cards. That's not a whole lot. It is a massive bet which is either designed to get paid off or is a complete bluff on a very scary board (unless you see it's really 5 or T9.

I don't think it's that cut & dry 'fold' is what I'm saying.

From the button, his range could surely be wide enough to hold the 5 - I still think we beat loads more hands (like top 2 pair, AQ).

we can assume his BTN range is pretty wide and we wount be making a mistake.

we can also assume that because of board texture he will cbet almost his pre entire range on flop.

due to turn check , we can discount 66,44,77,AQ,KQ,QJ,QQ,67s, all this will bet turn .

hands that could take this line and are in his pre range are A5,65s,45s,75s,89s,9Ts,99,55,97s,J9s,Q9s,K9s,A9 these hands he could bet or check the turn, but are def in his pre range and could play them like this.

because he has SD value and board is scary i think he will just call 78s,QT,TT,JJ.

so my decision is to fold on river.

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Originally Posted by Razvan729

hands that could take this line and are in his pre range are A5,65s,45s,75s,89s,9Ts,99,55,97s,J9s,Q9s,K9s,A9 these hands he could bet or check the turn, but are def in his pre range and could play them like this.

because he has SD value and board is scary i think he will just call 78s,QT,TT,JJ.

so my decision is to fold on river.

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I calculate the pokerstove equity with the hands above as villain 52.564% vs hero 47.436%
(pasted from PStove : 99,55,A9s,A5s,K9s,Q9s,J9s,T9s,97s+,75s,65s,A9o,A5o ,54o)

If he calls, the final pot is $32.10 ya? The call is $7.00. = 21.8%. So by my calculations on your range here, it's +EV to call.

Even if I stick every single 5 option in plus your range above the answer is still 30.3% equity so again a +ev to call. Let me know if I've stuffed up the calcs there but.

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Originally Posted by bikes

fold

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hey bikes, could you explain a bit more? what range do you give him i feel he could of picked up 2 pairs with that 8 a lot of the time(Q8, 68, 78), could of taken a weird line with a set, or still chance it could be air or AQ. seems those combined are almost as likely as 5x and QQ, or at least enough of the time to call given my pot odds.

my mistake when posting,
the thing is i think he only raises straights on turn and there are a lot in his range, the rest like 2 pair, or low kicker Q will just call if not fold on the river bet, so it's a river fold for hero.

Why did you call pre? Was it strictly for set mining or was it because you are ahead of most of his likely range of hands? If it were strictly for setmining then that brings up the next question:

When you float the flop did you have a plan for the turn or were you just planning to fold to further aggression?

Personally, I like a c/r on the flop. He's prolly c-betting like >90% of his range and it'd be difficult for him to have a really good hand here. Most of the air in his range is going to fold out. You can easily fold to a 3bet and you might have a clearer idea of where you stand on later streets if he calls.

As played: fold.

I'd fold now.

Shotglass - I think c/c flop and c/f turn seems pretty standard with nearly no reads/the reads we do have. I agree he's cbetting >90%. But we are trying to unbalanced his range the cheapest way possible and I think his turn barreling range will be a tad bit more balanced but cheap enough to make that more +EV than going ahead and c/r flop. C/r flop is obv. +EV though.