25nl Q flush faces river minraise

villain is unknown. w/ 0/0 over 17 hands


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (7 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

SB ($24)
BB ($60)
Hero (UTG) ($43.71)
MP1 ($25)
MP2 ($27.29)
CO ($11)
Button ($25)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/qc.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/jc.gif
Hero bets $0.75, MP1 calls $0.75, 5 folds


QJs opening in UTG is very unusual and maybe i should fold it pre, but the table is very tight and all have a hit or fold play style.


Flop: ($1.85) http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/jh.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/9c.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/2c.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $1.25, MP1 calls $1.25

i have no reads on him, but by stats seems nitty so on flop calling i can put him on AJ and slowplayed sets, AKcc. of course he could have a lot more and i am not discounting Acxc or some PP.
shoul i bet more like 1,5-1,7 on flop?

Turn: ($4.35) http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/ad.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks

line seems very passive, gets me confused , i would think sets, AJ will bet here .
should i fire a 2nd barrel on turn in this spot?

River: ($4.35) http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/6c.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $2.90, MP1 raises to $5.80,

this really make me wonder what could he play like this and the only hands that could take this line are Axcc, AQ,AK maybe and he didnt bet AQ/AK on turn afraid of a c/r from sets/AJ.

obviously i cant fold since i have 3rd nuts and i am getting a good price to call, but ... can i shove here? 3bet/fold is a bad ideea? will he ever call worse if i do shove or he'll just call Axcc?

I wouldn't shove; there's also KXcc that he might be holding and all of the other sc's that you're beating.

Fire the turn b/c river

First off I'd bet turn.

As for river, I think I'm raising, we're good like all the time. Did he really check top pair / nuf flush draw on turn? Did he really call KT clubs and worse pre after folding 17 hands? This looks like a worse flush to me with like 78s etc, either that or air.

yeh i would bet turn, you have pretty solid amount of equity.

I'm with OngBonga on him not likely having Kx or Ax clubs for the same reasoning. Might even have 66.

if villain can call preflop with sc's then there are likely more combinations in his range of worse flushes than Kx+ ones. and since you get paid off ~100% of the time by worse hands here its probably a good shove.

I've certainly been guilty of not thinking it through and just calling though, because of previous times that ive been bitten in the arse shoving here. It probably comes down to whether or not you can give the player credit for thinking about this enough to lay down worse hands.. and I don't think you can.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

First off I'd bet turn.

As for river, I think I'm raising, we're good like all the time. Did he really check top pair / nuf flush draw on turn? Did he really call KT clubs and worse pre after folding 17 hands? This looks like a worse flush to me with like 78s etc, either that or air.

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raising / shving are the first 2option that come in my mind here,bjut i am confused by the line and the fact he has folded first 17 hands
as combos he 7 Axcc combos, 6 Kxcc combos that beat me.

pot is 13,05 and he has 17.2 stack.

when i shove and get called i need at least 36% equity vs his calling a river AI range.

if i give him all Axcc combos i need him to call my shove w/ 5 combos worse then mine to make my river shove + EV, and i can only think at 78cc,45cc,66, i cant find anythink worse that would play like this.

hope some of higher stakes players would give theyr opinion for this spot.

question is of whether you can give more weight to the sc's/66 in his range than the Ax Kx hands.

I don't think your villain will ever have Kx. 17 straight folds says no.

Ax i'm not so sure without more history. AK, and AT are the only likely ones. 17 straight folds suggests he doesnt like Arag.

with only 17 hands you also don't yet know if this villain will take horribly unconventional lines with JJ/99/22 here. He could be an incredibly weak tight nit given that this is a FR table. If he's a thinking nit its unlikely he's going to put you on QJ for an UTG raise so might play slower with hands like AJ or QQ too. Its a really good example of the importance of player reads.

bet flop harder and bet turn hard aswell, c/c blank river if you think your reads on opponent warrants it

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ZwiFT

bet flop harder and bet turn hard aswell, c/c blank river if you think your reads on opponent warrants it

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flop bet also thought is kind of low, thinking 1.5-1.6 might be better.

2nd barrel it's always been one of my leaks, and here the A turn can be ,i think a good barrel card since i could make him fold better hands like KJ,some Ax that floated and even if called i still have some equity vs his turn calling range.i didnt bet the turn cause wanted too see cheap the river. should improve my betting sizing and 2nd barrels also.

ty zwift, but as played what's option for river?