10NL - QTs bluff line check

Villain is 12/12 although a smallish sample

Not sure if preflop call is great.

Flop I feel like he's cbetting 100% of the time, so I peal with the intention of taking it away on good turns.

Turn brings flush, hurrah, he checks, I bet, he calls.

I figure he has to expect me to bet a decent amount of the time when he checks to me on the turn, so I'm willing to follow it up with a river bet to make it look believable.


$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($10.36)
UTG+1 ($10)
MP1 ($4.10)
MP2 ($10.30)
CO ($11.13)
kiwimark (BTN) ($11.08)
SB ($10)
BB ($9.80)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 8 players) kiwimark is BTN :qd: :td:
4 folds, CO raises to $0.30 ($10.83), kiwimark calls $0.30 ($10.78), 2 folds

Flop: :ac: :6s: :3c: ($0.75, 2 players)
CO bets $0.50 ($10.33), kiwimark calls $0.50 ($10.28)

Turn: :9c: ($1.75, 2 players)
CO checks ($10.33), kiwimark bets $1.10 ($9.18), CO calls $1.10 ($9.23)

River: :3h: ($3.95, 2 players)
CO checks ($9.23), kiwimark bets $2.75 ($6.43) ...

gotta bet less. i don't try to make people fold TP without good reads and by the time i have those good reads no one folds TP to me anyway.

on the river you want him to fold like KKc QQc JJc so no need to bet like 3/4 when like 1/2ish suffices.

i'd prefer a 3bet preflop. as played i don't really like postflop, but that's because i suck at determining what % of opponent's ranges fold, and so prefer at least a tiny bit of equity if i plan to float 1 street and fire two as bluffs. tbh i wouldn't expect an unknown 10nler to fold any of AJ+ on this river.

i dont think he's trying to get him to fold AJ, its like BB said pairs with a club that peeled that last street are who i'd be trying to fold out. Or any Kcx for that matter

what i was getting at is i doubt we will get folds a high enough % of the time on this river because i expect him to call all of AJ+ (33 combos), which would considerably outweigh TcTx (2), JcJx (3), QcQx (2), KcKx (3), and any naked Kcx he got to the river with. though i admit it is far closer than i originally thought and may actually be +EV.

overbet jamming may get him to dump 1 pair Ax hands as well.

yea i guess if we are only targetting the middle pairs to get them to fold we need to bet a lot smaller like BB said...right now our bet has to work 41% of the time, optimistically its working about 34% of the time if that so we need to bet ~2 dollars maybe a little less

id jambo

that's interesting. í didn't consider overbet shipping here. but now i think about it - in terms of required fold frequency and resultant EV's of different bet sizes, i may prefer jamming than betting anything 1/2P - PSB. i mean he seems to be relatively tight and competent for a 10nler. and i think nut hands can be significantly, if not totally, discounted from his range (because he C/C turn, Ch River). and he may not even call a shove with AQ/AK. meaning we'd probably be getting >80% folds (off the top of my head, given effectives, we'd need ~66% folds for the bet to be +EV)

raise or fold vs the flop cbet

as played expect folds like never

Flop seems like total spew w/ no equity or idea about his barreling frequencies. Don't hate preflop but think I prefer a 3-bet to flatting here infoless vs what could be a pretty tight CO range.

Way more combos of Ax than JJ-KK stuff so I hate a bet of any size on the river and you can't even be sure he folds shit like QQ to a 1/2 psb.