50NL - TT in min 3-bet pot vs fish.

Villain is 33/18 and hasn't 3-bet yet over 30 hands or so. All seems very standard until the river, I obviously don't want to be 4 bet/felting TT vs a likely tight range that kills me here.

River sizing seems fairly strong from a passvie looking fish. if he has a tight value 3 bet range preflop as we expect a good chunk of that is AK. We don't know his 3-bet range is tight for sure, but I think it's a decent assumption given the info we have.

Fold?


No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($57.40)
CO ($56.90)
Button ($40.50)
SB ($50)
BB ($60.10)
Hero (UTG) ($50.75)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 10:club:, 10:heart:
Hero bets $1.50, 2 folds, Button raises $3, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.50

Flop: ($6.75) 3:club:, 4:diamond:, 6:club: (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50

Turn: ($13.75) 9:spade: (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: ($13.75) K:heart: (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $11.50, Hero?

I think this is a fold for sure.

3bet preflop I'd say QQ+, AK and maybe AQ depending on your image.

Flop is pretty standard cbet.

I'd expect a barrel if he had QQ+ on the turn, his check makes me think AK.

Spikes the K on the river and your turn and river checks makes him pretty sure you haven't flopped the straight or hit a set so he bets strong hoping you'll take it for a bluff and call down with 99-QQ maybe.

I agree AK is very likely big part of his range here.

Here's a tip regarding your method though: When you go through HHs though try to work with a range of hands instead of shaping a potential story that fits one hand speicifically. The latter is usually not possible and will frequently lead to oversights.

i have to agree that AK is the most likely holding. You don't have enough history to assume anything other than a tight 3bet range here and all his other 3bet hands have to play this board more aggressively.

There are other hands in his range if we can assume he could make a move on the button, 56s-89s perhaps. Anything thats paired probably checks behind though, and his flop bet size make me think that he would bet less on the river. He seems a bit like he doesnt want to risk too much on a cbet without making a pair on the flop (where as all the overpairs in his range would bet 75% to pot), and that strategy probably sticks with him on the river, so he might try to bluff steal with hands like 78s or AQ but it would be a bet like 6-9$ not 10+

I don't really like commenting though because these river desicions are easily my biggest leak at the moment.

This looks too much like AK to not fold.

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Originally Posted by Carroters

I agree AK is very likely big part of his range here.

Here's a tip regarding your method though: When you go through HHs though try to work with a range of hands instead of shaping a potential story that fits one hand speicifically. The latter is usually not possible and will frequently lead to oversights.

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I try to do that but still do find myself trying to figure out the hand villain has when I do HH's for some reason.

I've no doubt doing this whilst playing, even sub-consciously, has cost me too.

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Originally Posted by jackvance

This looks too much like AK to not fold.

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I think it's a fold. We haven't seen him 3bet light yet, so I'd be more inclined to give him credit for the K.
If his bet sizing were a bit lower, say 40% to 60% (~$6.50ish), then I might be tempted to call just to get a read on his 3betting range for future stack grabbing opportunities:mischief:; But at 80+% with a less than full stack, there'll be other chances for that read.

Yeah fold it's pretty doubtful he has much air at all in his range and he's not value betting worse.

id be lead/folding the flop vs a fish.

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Originally Posted by sauce123

id be lead/folding the flop vs a fish.

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This is interesting. Can you explain your reasons for leading here?

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Originally Posted by JL

This is interesting. Can you explain your reasons for leading here?

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I'm gonna try do it for him,

value

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Originally Posted by sauce123

id be lead/folding the flop vs a fish.

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What I don't understand about this is as follows.

I feel like this guy likely has a fairly strong value 3 betting range here. This would mean he never really has a lower pocket pair nor does he flop a pair here very often with unpaired holdings. So I figured c/c was standard since I can get a c-bet from any AK, AQ or other broadways hands should his 3 betting range be wider than I expect.

Leading for me seems to make him fold a lot of air or possibly call once with a hand like AK/AQ which I'm not getting 3 streets from and can go ahead and lead turns/rivers vs anyway should he check back.

Moreover, I feel like leading may sometimes induce a spazz raise from these overcard hands and I feel like I'm folding the best hand at least some non insignificant % here.

Please correct me on this thinking if it's off. I really appreciate the help!

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Originally Posted by sauce123

id be lead/folding the flop vs a fish.

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I like this

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ZwiFT

I'm gonna try do it for him,

value

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ldo

Somehow "value" "ldo" and "I like this" have all failed to convince me why leading is better here. Hoping Sauce or M2M can explain their thoughts on why this is in relation to my thoughts on his range etc.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Carroters

Somehow "value" "ldo" and "I like this" have all failed to convince me why leading is better here. Hoping Sauce or M2M can explain their thoughts on why this is in relation to my thoughts on his range etc.

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+1

obviously we are leading for value
ZwiFT is just trolling

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Carroters

Somehow "value" "ldo" and "I like this" have all failed to convince me why leading is better here. Hoping Sauce or M2M can explain their thoughts on why this is in relation to my thoughts on his range etc.

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This def. I can possibly see an argument for a c/r on the flop, not that I'd agree with it, but why would we want to b/f this flop after the pf action?

never played 50nl so it's out of my league, but i am gonna make a try, so dont crush my post :)

i can only guess a 50nl fish min3bet range in but, but even he only 3bets JJ+, AQ+, i would still bet for value since he will call AQ+ and most times raise us on AQcc,AKcc, JJ+ so there is enough worse calling to justify a value bet here.

i would probably even bet/fold turn for 2/3 so he cant get a free card for his AK/AQ.

as played i would fold river.

cause i dont think he is going to be bluffraising you with AK/AQ and i dont think he is going to be cbetting AK AQ particularly often