forming ranges around exploitive play.

some background:
so lately i've been doing a lot of study around some (for me) very fascinating game-theory concepts like maximum exploitive strategy, unexploitable strategy etc. specifically, the (0, 1) range model has helped me a lot in my quest to get my brain around this on a conceptual/practically applicable level. and this has lead me to want to do a heap of work on forming my own ranges in spots with the goal of exploiting my opponent's strategies. so here's one exercise i did recently based on a hypothetical holdem situation, against one of the regs i have the most hands on in my database (his screen-name is fun_ex700, with no _ in the middle). this guy is a nitty, yet positionally aware, 50nl FR reg on stars. so here's my made-up situation and my attempt at exploiting his strategy (as best i can infer it from HUD stats/reads). this post also outlines the steps in/order of our thought-processes, as best i understand them, involved in forming maximum exploitive strategies.

before i start, i want it to be clear that this is not an attempt at a "strategy post", i hold no delusions about my skill level at no-limit holdem - i fucking suck at this game. but i'm trying very hard to get better.

The situation:
villain opens to 3x in CO with 100bb effectives
hero is on the BU with two cards.
both blinds fold 100% of the time (just so we don't have to factor in too many variables)

let's form an optimal exploitive strategy as best we can. how do we go about doing that?

- first, what's his strategy?
some stats:
VPIP: 10.6%
PFR: 8.28%
ATS: 28%
4b PF: 2.78%
3b PF: 3.68%
fold PF 3b: 88.6
Cbet flop : 66%
fold to flop CB: 33%

these seem to be the most relevant stats in getting a feel for his playing style/trying to determine an optimal exploitive strategy (though i'd warmly welcome suggestions of other relevant stats)

i have not got down to him yet on my list of regs to study in my database, so i have no notes on him except that he opens for 3x in all positions from UTG through to the BU.

so after a brief overview on his playing style, let's form some ranges and assess how we think he would probably play them. which is always our first consideration in forming our own ranges

so what's his preflop opening range?
with incredibly nitty blinds, probably something like:

[22+,A2s+,A8o+,K8s+,KTo+,Q8s+,Q9o+,J8s+,J9o+,T7s+,T 9o+,
97s+,86s+, 76s, 65s, 54s]

what's his preflop 4bet range?
we'll say [KK+,AKs,ATs]

(ATs is in there just to add some bluff combos because he probably does 4bet bluff some non-zero %. especially vs me - any aware 50nl reg would probably see me as being excessively aggro to the point of being spewy pre and post-flop)

what's his flatting range?
probably something like [88-QQ,AKo]

so his different ranges break down as such:
opening range: 394 combos
flatting range: 42 combos (10% of opening range)
4b range: 20 combos (5% of opening range)
4b/fold range: 4 combos (20% of 4betting range)
4b/call AI range: 16 combos (80% of 4betting range)

in total, he continues to my 3b, by either flatting or 4betting, 15% of the time. when he 4bets (5% of the time), he is willing to put the rest in 80% of the time.

now to forming our own ranges..

so what is our 3bet for value range?
while we do get value from his 3b-calling range with hands like
JJ,QQ,KK (because he is calling with 88,99) we do not want to have to 3b/fold them (as best i understand) especially if he is 4b bluffing some non-zero % of the time.

i'm unsure of the validity of the above statement. but anyway,

thus we want to value 3b a range which we are willing to felt vs a 4b. his 4b/felting range is [KK+,AKs]

thus the only hand we can 3betting for value (assuming above premise regarding "never wanting to 3b for value/fold" is correct) is AA, as KK only has 32% vs KK+,AKs. while this seems bleak (we can't even 3bet KK for value?!?!?! wtf?), there is a flipside to this coin, which is his exploitability to 3b bluffs. which i'll get to later.

what is our flatting range?
as best i understand this, this range should contain the maximum amount of hands we think we can play profitably vs his range (which don't have a higher EV as 3bets for value). to determine this we need to consider a few factors:
- card advantage
- positional advantage
- skill advantage
- initiative advantage

we also need to consider how he plays his range postflop. his opening range is currently relatively wide. and doesn't connect particularly well with flops. we can also assume that he is cbetting a relatively weak range because he has initiative in a heads up pot. and cbetting is all the rage in HU pots with initiative. thus we are looking to play hands which have decent equity against his opening range, and also hands which flop some decent equity so we can semi-bluff raise/float some flops, which exploits his weak range (the fact he is likely to play very straightforward after cbetting the flop makes fucking with him like this more enticing)

after considering all of these factors, i came up with something like:
[22-QQ,A2s+,AJo+,KJs+,KQo,QTs+,QJo,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76 s]

i think that determining flat-calling ranges is probably the hardest one of them all, so i'll go into more detail about why chose that range. 77-QQ is in there for obvious reasons - we have good equity against his range, we can flop sets, and also float flops which he is unlikely to have connected with. 22-66 i was kind of torn on, they only flop very well something like 1/10 of the time, and they are pretty shit candidates to use as floats vs a weak range because their equity is pretty black/white. we either flop a set or we don't. and when they don't flop a set, they rarely have much equity against any pair, or even two naked overcards. so i'm unsure if i can even profitably flat 22-66. A2s+ seems pretty standard because these can flop flush draws (which have great equity which will allow us to exploit his weak cbet range with semi-bluffs etc), plus we often get a free bet on A high flops when he cbets with a weak range. AJo+ flops pretty well against so many worse Ax hands in his range, as does KJs+,KQo,QTs+,QJo+ due to amount of dominated K/Qx hands in his opening range. the rest of the hands are basically in our preflop flop range because they have the value of suitedness/connectedness and so they can flop pretty well (that is to say they have decent and stable equity across ranges), and thus they can be candidates for flop semi-bluffs, which seems to be an important aspect of exploiting this guy's weak opening/cbetting ranges.

so now, we need to determine:

1 - whether or not we want to be 3b bluffing and then;
2 - what range we want to 3b bluff with,

we determined earlier that he is folding to our 3bet a total of 85%. which is pretty huge. a bit of quick math shows that if we 3bet to 9bb, we require him to fold 9/(9+4.5) = 66% of the time (this is our required fold frequency in a vacuum, not factoring in the fact that we have post-flop equity). so we see that he is verrrrrry exploitable to 3x 3b bluffs. so we have figured out our answer to part one of the 3b bluffing question - we most definitely do want to be 3b bluffing this guy

now, with what range? there are three factors to consider here, everyone knows them:
- hands which are NOT profitable enough to flat or 3b for value
- a range which increases our fold equity (has blockers to his continuing range)
- a range which has the most pot equity against his flatting range (because we are never going to turn any of this range into 5b bluffs, as he stacks off with 80% of his 4b range, we are looking for hands which flop well vs his flatting range)

so, let's look at some candidate hands based on the above criteria:

an ace is our most valuable blocker, but most Ax hands have already been determined to be profitable enough to flat. here is a selection of hands which are probably good candidates to 3b bluff based on above criteria:

[A2o-A8o,K6s-KTs,K9o-KJo,Q9s,Q8s,J7s,J8s]

however, if we 3b all of those hands, even this nit is going to notice we are 3betting him like a monkey on a decent dosage of PCP, and will probably adjust (i recently had a nitty reg with similar stats start playing like an utter madman against me after i pissed him off enough with my 3b/4b's)

so here we want to determine exactly what % of our 3b range we want to be bluffs. the nut/bluff ratio in our 3b range should be a direct result of his fold to 3b frequency. obviously the larger % he folds to 3bets, the more of our 3b range we want to be composed of bluffs. because his 4b range is dominated by nut hands, we found we may not even want to 3b KK, but an opponent which forces us to tighten up our 3b for value range is usually going to be highly susceptible to a wide 3bet bluff range.

i actually don't know how to determine the game-theory optimal 3b bluff frequency here. (if anyone can help me here that would be much appreciated), but i'm intuitively going to advocate a 3 or 4:1 ratio of bluffs:nut hands in our 3b range in this particular case.

so we are 3betting 6 combos for value.
thus a 3:1 bluff:nuts ratio would have 18 bluff combos
and a 4:1 bluff:nuts ratio would have 24 bluff combos

so we could use:
- KTs-K7s and two combos of A8o for a 3:1 ratio
- or A8o-A9o for a 4:1 ratio

i prefer the latter, and to be honest, i want to 3bet bluff this guy wayyyyy more, but i'm unsure how to go about figuring out what the optimal amount is.

so our preflop range here breaks down as such:

3bet: AA,A8o,A9o
-3bet/call: AA
-3bet/fold: A8o,A9o

flat: 22-QQ,A2s+,AJo+,KJs+,KQo,QTs+,QJo,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76 s

fold: the rest

some concluding thoughts:
- i'm not sure about the "preferring to flat KK because it is -EV to stack off with against his felting range" statement. it seems absurd that the only hand we can 3bet for value is AA.
- even with a 4:1 bluff:nut ratio, we are still only 3betting 2.3% of total hands. i think we can be 3betting this guy wayyyyyyy more. but our incredibly thin value 3b range kind of restricts our 3b bluff range (is that so, or can we just ignore it and 3b a way more unbalanced range, like 7:1 or something)

so this took me absolutely ages, and i'd love to hear some feedback on my thought process and the conclusions i came to. i also hope it helps other players better understand the process of forming their own ranges around exploiting their opponents' tendencies at least to some degree.

for those interested, here are some of the threads i have been studying which address the concepts i have been trying to get my head around and are relevant to this post:

- http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ns-161354.html
- http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ng-160256.html
- http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...he-163171.html
- http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...em-156835.html
- http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...er-184365.html
- Pokersback
- ISF - There's No Such Thing As a Made Hand
- ISF - There's No Such Thing As a Made Hand: Part 2
- Spoony Exercises 1-7 or however many there were (look in BC Digest for these, i'm not linking each one individually)

ps feel free to post how you form your own ranges in the given situation if you want to. as i said, this isn't an attempt at a strategy post. i'm hoping to spark some fruitful discussion.

I definitely think your 3betting range is far too narrow in this spot. I mean first off I get you are going with a ton of hypotheticals here, but at the same time he's 3 betting AKo enough for you to have enough equity with kk against his stacking off range.

I mean I think you highlighted that he has something that you can exploit well, but then walked away from it due to a thought you may not need to do. I feel its fine to have a much larger than a 4 : 1 bluff to nuts 3 betting ratio. You a dream spot to 3bet (especially with the two guys asleep in the blinds) and he can't immediately exploit your wider 3betting range.

Consider this analogy. Lets assume you are playing rock paper scissors with someone you have a large history against. You have determined that after throwing rock, there is a 50% chance they will throw paper. If you opponent now throws rock you should throw scissors 100% of the time right now. I'm not saying your longterm strategy should be to throw rock in this type of spot 100% of the time, but he can't adjust before you do it, so go for it.

Similarly I feel you can get away with having a much larger bluff to value ratio in this spot because he can't adjust to that during the hand. Sure, after this time if you feel that its best adjust to a much less exploitable strategy go for it, but there's no reason not to take advantage of an extremely profitable situation now.

thanks for responding. as for your statement regarding his stack-off frequency with AK, we never have enough equity to 3b KK with intentions of stacking off against KK+,AKs,AKo, as we only have


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.293% 43.79% 03.51% 67479612 5402286.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 52.707% 49.20% 03.51% 75823176 5402286.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }

47% equity. of course this is based on two assumptions, namely:
- that we never want to 3b a hand that won't have >50% equity vs his stacking off range
- that he doesn't 4b QQ (which seems reasonable for such a nit, and a very low 4b frequency)

the first of those two points was one of the stumbling blocks i encountered in making the original post, so it could well be wrong. if you're interested, the main reason i held that assumption can be found in the first post in this thread:
Some Pre-Flop 3-Betting Concerns

which basically states exactly what i said (unless i misinterpreted)

as for your analogy with rock/paper/scissors, i don't think this is accurate/applicable. i know that, due to his fold frequency, i can literally 3bet ANY two cards and have it be +EV in a vacuum. but the idea of forming our whole range isn't concerned with what plays are +EV in a vacuum, i don't think, but instead how to form or range to maximise the EV of the whole range versus his range in these situations. i base this comment around two sections of your post:

"he can't immediately exploit your wider 3betting range."

and

"I'm not saying your longterm strategy should be to throw rock in this type of spot 100% of the time, but he can't adjust before you do it, so go for it."

in this case, i am very definitely trying to determine my long-term strategy, because, as i mentioned, if this hand was played in a complete vacuum, i could 3bet any two as a bluff and be +EV. and thus i'd probably keep the "3bet for value", and "flat-call" ranges as they are, and turn ALL the rest of my possible holdings into my 3b bluff range (because every single hand i could hold has a positive expectation if i 3bet it here). but the thing is, i'm not considering this in a vacuum. and i obviously can't 3bet 70% of hands in these spots. because he will wake up.

again, i'm a fish. i know that there is every chance i am wrong here. but these are my thoughts in response to your post.

Great post, I'm very interested to see peoples reply's. I'd rather have 22-66 in the 3bet bluffing range vs this villain tho because of the reasons you said + his stealing range is so wide its going to be hard to get paid because we are oop and give up our initiative. When he flats our 3bet bluff with 22-66 [88-QQ,AKo] and we hit out bottom set or w/e we're gonna get paid/value a lot easier from his tptk or overpair. Also i think he would be able to flat AQs.

^^ we aren't OOP. we are on the BU versus a CO open. that said, i still think flatting 22-66 is marginal for similar reasons to yours

Two things @ RPM

1. Whatever that article says, when you add in the equity of his, "4b/fold range: 4 combos (20% of 4betting range)" 3 betting KK will become +ev.

2. Its true you could probably 3bet bluff atc profitably here, but that doesn't mean you should, or that I'm advocating that strategy. The reason we don't though is for a very specific reason. Any time we exploit a player who is paying attention, we lose some future equity because that same play becomes less profitable In the immediate future.

Also, when we choose widen our 3bet bluffing range, we may be adding hands that are less profitable. That's why 3betting something like 8To here would be a mistake. That hand uses up our profitable spot, but the play is much closer to marginal than If we had waited around for a decent hand.

The thing is I doubt you can give me a good reason why you would 3bet bluff A9o, but not ATo or A7o.

@ Chatzilla I think 3 betting small PPs is shit terrible in this spot. When we 3bet a small PP we hit some kind of equity sooooo infrequently. The only times I would advocate 3betting small PPs are potentially deep IP (not sure at all about this, Id probably still rather have 78s), or if we have enough of a 4betting dynamic with a villain, and felt 3betting with the intension of 5 bet jam/bluffing would be profitable. In that situations small PPs are great because their equity is so much better against somewhat light stack off ranges than a SC or something or other hands we might end up stacking off with.

To ilustrate that point:
Hand 0: 39.044% 38.83% 00.22% 223374456 1256664.00 { 55 }
Hand 1: 60.956% 60.74% 00.22% 349446360 1256664.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }

Hand 0: 33.065% 21.17% 11.89% 169669740 95303310.00 { AQo}
Hand 1: 66.935% 55.04% 11.89% 441081912 95303310.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }

Hand 0: 31.727% 31.46% 00.27% 114203284 968370.00 { JTs }
Hand 1: 68.273% 68.01% 00.27% 246868424 968370.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }

That being said, I feel like this definitely isn't one of thoes spots, and small PPs just arent going to play as well. When we 3bet a hand IP, our position and initiative Is going to put us in a ton of spots where we are able to utilize every bit of equity we pick up, and for this reason I feel SC etc play much better in this spot. Then again, I have no problem with 3 betting primarily hands that block our opponents continuing range.

Btw, this a standard flat with AXs for everyone?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Mr. Bucket

Two things @ RPM

1. Whatever that article says, when you add in the equity of his, "4b/fold range: 4 combos (20% of 4betting range)" 3 betting KK will become +ev.

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sounds like you haven't bothered to read it? first, let's be clear: no-one is saying that 3betting KK isn't +EV. it has already been established that 3betting 72o is +EV. that's a fact. maths tells us so. also, our equity versus his 4b/fold range (when we plan to 5b shove) is irrelevant because we put the money in against his 4b/call range.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Mr. Bucket

The thing is I doubt you can give me a good reason why you would 3bet bluff A9o, but not ATo or A7o.

---

i already gave my exact reasoning for this. i flat ATo here because i think that ATo is profitable to flat against his opening range due to it containing so many Ax hands, and the fact that he will probably Cbet a lot of A high flops (so he often value bets for us when we flop top pair).

as for A9o, i decided (you can disagree, that's fine) that i didn't think it was profitable enough to flat, however it is somewhere near the "top" of my "folding range", plus it increases my fold equity against his range, and has decent equity versus his 3bet flatting range. as for A7o, i could see myself 3bet bluffing this hand for sure. for the same reasons i would consider A9o a good candidate for 3bet bluffing versus this guy.

that's as close as my poker knowledge allows me to get to a "good reason" to flat a certain hand versus a range, or to 3bet it as a bluff. what was your point in saying that anyway? do you know of more important factors to take into consideration in determining what hands to flat/3b bluff?

First off i apologize, I always come off as an asshole on these forums. Not intending to be harsh towards anyone, especially you as you post on my hands/analysis alot which I appreciate as you're way more expeirenced than me.

I was confused by "flat: 22-QQ,A2s+,AJo+,KJs+,KQo,QTs+,QJo,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76 s" Didn't realise ATo was supposed to be in there.

The biggest point I'm trying to make here, is that there's like no difference between 3betting A7o and A8/A9. I mean if we put together a range now to exploit this player and dont adjust it based on the flow of the game I think its pretty bad.

My point is raising A6o here is very close equity wise to raising A8o. If he raises and you have either one of those hands, I don't understand why you would make the decision to fold. I mean these ranges aren't something we have to stick to.

Like in your situation I'd probably 3bet any Ax and kxs I was folding, then not 3bet him except for value for a few rounds if I thought he was good enough to adjust.

In 3bet bluffing here I feel among those hands the importance of how recently I've 3 bet him is >>> the difference between a3-a8

i'm putting together a range now to exploit this player because that's precisely what i set out to try to do. and each range has parameters. i drew the cut-off for my flatting range at ATo (or A9o, i cant remember). the point is that this is the kind of decisions we need to make at the table every hand. i realise that whether we flat or 3b A7/A6o doesn't change the EV of the range HUGELY. but lines have DO have to be drawn. otherwise we are likely to end up playing very spewy/exploitably and forcing our opponent to adjust to us (forcing us to play the guessing game - "how much has he adjusted? did he adjust correctly or is he just spewing? etc) which we would prefer him not do (i think), as we want to continue exploiting the shit out of him without him aware.

fwiw, i had no intention to imply that this is ALWAYS my range in this spot and i apologise if i gave off that impression. i'll obvously adjust my range as i see fit based on the history we develop and any further reads i gain. on that note, the very point of me doing this exercise is to determine how to adjust and tweak my ranges in an attempt to exploit his strategy as best i think i can. which is my goal for every poker hand i ever play.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Mr. Bucket

First off i apologize, I always come off as an asshole on these forums.

---

no problems. i'm sure i come across in the same way from time to time.

Really nice post, rpm.

For your 3bet bluff range -- personally, against someone nitty like that, I usually end up 3betting them mercilessly. I'll 3bet with all kinds of trash that isn't in my calling range -- Ax, Kx, nearly anything suited.

His stats are so tight because he is relying on the fact that his LP steals are +EV in a vacuum, and you are taking that away from him (ie, he rarely opens in EP/MP, but opens a ton in LP). Now he is forced to adjust or he's just handing money over to you. How will he adjust?

1) Open a tighter LP range -- you win, because now you will get more uncontested attempts to isolate limpers and steal the blinds without the CO interfering.
2) Widen his 3bet call range -- you still win, because he's playing a weak range OOP in a 3bet pot. You will often take down the pot with a small cbet and you're still playing hands that can at least flop some kind of equity. Plus, since he's nitty, he probably won't be bloating the pot OOP unless he has a very strong hand, so you'll be able to control the size of the pot pretty easily when you want to see a showdown.
3) Widen his 4bet range -- this one is a bit tougher, because you'll need to estimate how much he is widening it and with what type of hands, then adjust your 3bet value range accordingly. But bad players will often really screw this adjustment up and start stacking off with surprisingly weak hands because they don't understand that you are folding your bluffing range when they start 4betting.

Bottom line -- at worst, you force the CO to stop stealing your button. At best, you force the CO into crappy situations that are far outside his normal comfort/expertise zones.

A little math -- if the CO steals with 33% of his hands, and you 3bet him with your bluffing range you listed (which is 5% of hands), and you end up in the BTN vs. CO situation once every 9 hands (I'm assuming FR, obviously), then you only end up bluffing him once out of every (3*9/.05) = 540 hands. If the EV of the pure bluff is +2.5bb (1.25ptbb), that amounts to an additional .23 ptbb/100. Not bad, but you can get a lot more by bluffing a much wider range and then taking advantage of his bad play when he adjusts badly.

on revision, you guys have convinced me. does this look better?

3bet: AA,A9o-A5o,KTs-K7s, KJo
-3bet/call: AA
-3bet/fold: A9o-A5o,KTs-K7s, KJo

flat: 22-QQ,A2s+,ATo+,KJs+,KQo,QTs+,QJo,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76 s

fold: the rest

btw the 3bet range is now weighted at 6 nut combos and 88 bluffs. so closer to 15:1. obviously we are hugely un-balanced and exploitable here. but that's a response to his current high exploitability to 3bets

edited to include ATo, A9o. thanks Mr Bucket

Put ATo and A9o either in your calling or folding range pre. They block 99-TT which continues to 3bets way more often than 55-88. Put TJs-KQs in your calling range pre.

Your 3betting range here is still WAY WAY too tight imo. You have described a completely perfect situation in which to 3bet bluff in because
1. We have position
2. Villain folds to 3bets a ton
3. Villains PF range is wider than usual because he is in LP and both blinds are extremely tight
4. Again both blinds are extremely tight
5. If we don't 3bet bluff him now, It's rare we will get in anywhere near as good of a spot to exploit him because other non nits will be in pot and villain will either have a much tighter opening range or have position on us.

This hypothetical 3bet bluffing spot is so good I don't think I've ever actually been in this good of a spot for it (hypothetical blinds who fold 100% will do that to you). Even though this spot is sooooo good for 3bet bluffing, you are only 3betting 6.3% of your hands. Compare that number to the normal range of 3betting %'s for most winning regs being like 4-12% over all positions and situations.

I would be 3betting something like :
AA,KTs-K2s,Q9s,J8s,T8s-T7s,97s-96s,86s-85s,75s-74s,64s+,54s,ATo-A2o,KJo-K2o,JTo,T9o,98o,87o,76o for a whopping 28.8% of hands here.

(Above is assuming I keep your value ranges with the exception of TJs-QKs which I assume are missing in your range due to a typo)

You might think having this wide of a 3betting range is super exploitable, and you'd be right. Thing is every time we exploit someone we are shifting our ranges away from default plays, and hence making our play more exploitable. To exploit the shit out of someone, by definition you are making your range super exploitable.

Is our range this wide SB v BU or CO v MP? Not at all, we are probably 3betting much wider than you would, but this exact position is the complete nuts. Will this make us play guessing games with how much our opponents have adjusted sometimes? Sure, but if he does decide to adjust consider his options:

1. He can tighten up in LP leaving you a ton of buttons to play with. If he takes this route we get to steal from our hypothetical nit blinds all day.

2. He can start raising our 3 bets. We will be able to catch onto this quickly, and as long as we don't spazz out I'm pretty confidant both of us playing guessing games with us in position isn't a terrible spot. Him exploiting our 3 bet bluffs with 4 bet bluffs is completely different from what we did to him. While we were risking 9bb to win 4.5bb ( we needed him to fold 66%) he will be risking something like 18bb to win 13.5 ( he will need 57% equity). We only needed about 10% more folds and we were IP going up against an opening range, whereas he is OOP going up against a 3betting range. Sure we are adjusting without knowing EXACTLY what he's doing, but both parties are clueless here and we are IP, plus if we ever decide to we can just turn this game off by stopping our light 3bs (which he won't pick up on immediately, hence our value hands will still have more equity v his continuing range). If our villain wants to stop this, he has to stop raising in LP or sit out.

3. He can start calling our 3bets. This is easy to spot and super easy to exploit. Just unpolarize our range and He's playing bloated pots oop against us with the mindset "I'm making a stand!" In general this adjustment of his is the fishiest of the 3, but not uncommon (probably much less common at your stakes than mine, but you get what I mean.)

What it all boils down to is the one thing Zilla beat into me in IRC: There isn't a way to exploit someone on your left 3betting you, especially IP. When someone starts 3betting us from our left, all our options are just damage control.

The biggest advantage of playing these adjusting games with people is you can open up your value range and start getting paid IP with more than just AA.

Again, I'm not experienced, but from what I can see you can either choose to A) Take advantage of both the high FE offered by this guy and the natural + ev play that is 3B'ing people on your right, then end up playing potentially high variance guessing games where you can actually get some value (Still IP) or B) Choose to not (or barely) exploit this guy's tendency and get stuck playing fewer hands IP.

I think it's a waste 3-betting AA. Dunno why you would 3b K7s and fold A2o-A6o. Cos you're not calling them and they has blockers to more of his range. Rest looks fine.
I'd rather flat KTs most of the time if blinds are passive. You got the right idea: Don't over adjust. If you do start 3-betting 30% and he doesn't adjust you'll level yourself into thinking he did and start calling his 4bets and get stacked by AA. :P
At least that's how I do it.

However if you're comfortable with creating a funny dynamic with some 50NL regs, you can just 3b him all the time. With a bit of luck he'll start 4betting like 25% and then you go back to 3-betting TT+, AQ+ and hope he'll keep it up. I don't recommend that tho :P

Kx hands block same number of hands unless villain plays AQ, which isn't in the range rpm gave this guy, though he probably has some combos.

I don't see how we are really going to over adjust here though cause its just going to be unprofitable to 3bet this guy most of the time since he's going to have such a tight opening range.

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Originally Posted by oskar

I think it's a waste 3-betting AA. Dunno why you would 3b K7s and fold A2o-A6o. Cos you're not calling them and they has blockers to more of his range. Rest looks fine.
I'd rather flat KTs most of the time if blinds are passive. You got the right idea: Don't over adjust. If you do start 3-betting 30% and he doesn't adjust you'll level yourself into thinking he did and start calling his 4bets and get stacked by AA. :P
At least that's how I do it.

However if you're comfortable with creating a funny dynamic with some 50NL regs, you can just 3b him all the time. With a bit of luck he'll start 4betting like 25% and then you go back to 3-betting TT+, AQ+ and hope he'll keep it up. I don't recommend that tho :P

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by oskar

If you do start 3-betting 30% and he doesn't adjust you'll level yourself into thinking he did and start calling his 4bets and get stacked by AA. :P
At least that's how I do it.

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story of my poker life. i'd prefer to just exploit him to a smaller degree over a long period of time than exploit the shit out of him for the next 200 hands, and then have to play the adjustment game as he cottons on and starts 4betting (or the even less detectable adjustment - tightening his opening range)

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Originally Posted by Mr. Bucket

I was confused by "flat: 22-QQ,A2s+,AJo+,KJs+,KQo,QTs+,QJo,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76 s" Didn't realise ATo was supposed to be in there.

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i see now where a lot of the confusion was coming from. i fucked up in the first post. if ATo was the worst Axo in my flatting range (and i thought all Axs were profitable enough to flat), A9o would be the first candidate to 3b bluff. if A9o was the worst Axo in my flatting range, A8o would be the first candidate to 3b bluff etc.

edit: and i fucked up in every post thereafter.

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Originally Posted by Mr. Bucket

Put ATo and A9o either in your calling or folding range pre.

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yeah sorry my mistake there. fixed now i think.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Mr. Bucket

Put TJs-KQs in your calling range pre.

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they have been in my calling range since the start.

in case you are unfamiliar with, or were confused by, how i type out ranges: "KJs+" means KJs and KQs, and "J9s+" = J9s,JTs.

Nice post.

Have you read "The Mathematics of Poker" by Bill Chen and Jerrod Ankenman? It has loads of simplified poker games that are analysed thoroughly (including the [0,1] continuous distribution game that you mention and a few chapters regarding the mathematics of bankroll management. I plan on re-reading it after my exams :-)

i tried once. man that book is so far over my head it is unbelievable.

[QUOTE

Blockers are blocking his opening range as well, bucket.