44 set on flop, bad turn, nightmare river -> Correct lay down?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (7 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 ($6.17)
MP2 ($1.79)
CO ($5.61)
Button ($4.93)
Hero (SB) ($5.36)
BB ($2.08)
UTG ($2.63)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif
3 folds, CO bets $0.15, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.13, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.35) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: ($0.35) Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $0.30, CO calls $0.30

River: ($0.95) Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.65, Hero folds

Total pot: $0.95 | Rake: $0.06


So, analysis time. I call the pfr to set mine against a 24/19 opponent who I can probably squeeze some $$$ out of if I hit. I hit the flop, woo, and decide to check raise as I expect a c-bet. Unfortunately he doesn't c bet and we are onto the turn. Turn brings a queen and I think, right, I have a full house so if he has a set of qeens or two pair 8s and queens then it's value town time so I bet. He calls and a queen comes on the river. Damn.


Okay, preflop he has a fairly wide range in CO position maybe as low as K8s and 88+. On the flop he checks behind so this gives next to no information about his hand, he could have 88 or QQ and be slow playing but I think this is unlikely. On the turn he calls my pot sized bet so he must have something that connected with the board (presume no overpairs as he surely would have bet the flop with these) although it would be sensible to leave some air in his range. River brings the nightmare card: here my 44 is almost worthless and all I can beat is air. So I guess the question of whether I made a correct laydown or not rests on how much air he would bet the river with... This could be a lot but it could also be very little and with only 60 hands on him and few reads I think the laydown was correct.

So, two questions. 1. Do you think I made a correct laydown? 2. Should I have b/f on the river?

Thanks

I may revise this title to, meh turn, nightmare river...

Do you think that the check raise plan on the flop was good? I have been doing this more and more with pps that hit sets and I think it is good as it can get the money in but it also has the downside of convincing people to fold...

preflop call may be marginal as this guys range isn't particularly strong when he opens in the CO. thus you may not make enough $$ the times you hit a flop to compensate for the 9/10 (i think) times you are forced to check/fold. as played yeah definitely bet pot or damn close to it on the turn (as you did) for value. as played river is a C/F. his river calling range is going to beat you more than you beat it (thus we can't bet for value, we should check), and he's unlikely to bet worse hands than yours very often when checked to (hence, check/fold)

as for the flop, you can probably donk bet it, but planning to C/R isn't terrible either. i'm kind of neutral on that one.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by rpm

preflop call may be marginal as this guys range isn't particularly strong when he opens in the CO. thus you may not make enough $$ the times you hit a flop to compensate for the 9/10 (i think) times you are forced to check/fold. as played yeah definitely bet pot or damn close to it on the turn (as you did) for value. as played river is a C/F. his river calling range is going to beat you more than you beat it (thus we can't bet for value, we should check), and he's unlikely to bet worse hands than yours very often when checked to (hence, check/fold)

.

---

+1

So for the flop c/r, what is his c bet %? If its low im donking all day and if its high c/r can be good. The advantage to c/r is we get a bet out of the air in his range, we give FDs a worse price even though they are probably calling, and we get much more money in. Downside to the c/r is our line looks a lot stronger. This means 8x arent in his flop calling range and qx arent in his turn calling range.

For me I'd probably go for a c/r if villain had high cbet% and seemed less nitty postflop just cause if he folds qj to the c/r its probably bad.

Note on c/r'ing sets oop (again fold pre dont set mine oop v wide ranges) is that if the board is alot wetter like 88 on 8TJtt c/r becomes bad IMO because the air in villain's range wont c bet and the flop checking through is very bad for you.

What does a 24/19 check back flop with that can call turn?

I run around these stats, and my range would be mainly air looking for weakness to take it down on turn. The board is too connected for me to cbet without equity. Depending on history I would stubbornly call the turn some of the time. I would also bet my air on that river as a bluff. All this would mainly depend on how I perceive you, and how you play.

The most likely holding however is maybe a PP that didn't cbet? A Q bets that flop 100%, and so does a FL draw or set for that matter. I would probably bet fold river even if it is some sort of blocking bet.

I really think you got counterfeited though, and probably a good fold. It's kind of hard for me to say that though, because I would get to the river and bluff to certain player types.

calling pre is def fine at these stakes and would probably advocate it a giant % of the time.