10nl tpnk in 3bet pot

Villain is 24/17 over 29. Nothing out of ordinary so far.

Pre: His calling range is something like AJ, AQ, 77-qq and 89s-QJs. Not really sure about this largely due to limited info. Definitely could be wider or tighter.

Flop: Plan was to c/c flop and c/f or lead turn. Not really sure if betting to get value from underpairs is good. Problem becomes it will be difficult to distinguish his floats from his value range on turn.

Interested both in postflop thoughts and how you guys would weight his preflop range.

Merge No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - Merge Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($13.34)
Button ($25.37)
Hero (SB) ($10)
BB ($10.53)
UTG ($11.66)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif
2 folds, Button bets $0.30, Hero raises to $1.10, 1 fold, Button calls $0.80

Flop: ($2.30) 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: ($2.30) 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $1.25, 1 fold

Total pot: $2.30

Thanks

Wtf? What are you doing pre vs relative unknown

3 bet bluffing a hand, admittedly not that close to the top of my folding range, against a player with reggish stats who most likely has a wide button opening range

What's your 3 bet bluffing range here? with 8to that's like 25%+ 3 bet....

i dont like it at all. one reason is because your sample is realy small and you have pretty much no info on him and 2nd reason, if you think he calls so light pre, like the range you gave, you should 3bet more for value and less as a bluff. how did he build his stack? it's 2.5 times bigger then max buy-in.

also, with 13-14 implied odds his getting, i thinks he calls with all PP up to JJ, if he 4bets AK ( you didnt put it in his calling range) then for sure he 4bets QQ also, if he calls 89s then for sure calls 78s also and the same for KQs and should include Axs in his calling range pre as well. so my opinion is that his calling range is AJ,AQ,22-JJ,78s-KQs,Axs.

i would bet the flop,2/3 pot,you are giving a free card on a very wet flop, you can get value from a lot worse , FD and straight draw and some underpairs and protect your hand vs high cards like J+, of course fold to a raise, your hand has very little equity vs his raising range.

i would bet turn stronger,at least 2/3, when he folds it's sure he had complete air since your bet gives him implied odds to call on a FD/ straight draw.

I think my the entire leak that is evident in this hand boils down to what I think villain should make his 3bet flatting range.

In villain's situation, Ie. you are running regular ish stats over ~30 hands, and you open BU and get 3 bet by BB running taggish stats who hasn't 3bet yet my flatting range would be like AQ, AJs, TT-QQ. The reason for this extremely tight flatting range is my attempt to combat the general bipolar disorder 10nl regulars have with regard to 3 betting. In my limited experience there are some regs at 10nl who 3bet way way way too much as a bluff, but aside from these players most regulars generally have their 3bet stat converge to something like 3-5%. The idea that the BB is one of the guys who 3 bets way too much as a bluff is extremely unlikely because of him not having 3 bet yet. For this reason I feel like his 3betting range in this spot is most likely very tight.

Even though his 3betting range is so tight i feel my odds for set mining arent the greatest since i will hit my set

(1-(48/50)*(47/49)*(46/48))*100% or 11.76% of the time

Which means the EV of our call assuming we are giving up when we dont hit a set is:

.8824*-.8+.1176*x

Where x is the ammount we expect to win on average when we hit a set.
When we set this expression = to 0 and solve we find x to be $6.00.
With the immediate pot at 1.45 this seems way too high of an estimate for x. Although we do have some % of the time where we can get to showdown and win, there is also alot of the time where we get set over set or someone catches a straight/flush and we get stacked so i think calling with a small pp will be -ev

I'm not sure if calling with SC's is -ev or not, but my assumption has been that it is in this spot and they have not been in my calling range.

So I expect SCS and PPs to not be in a ton of villain's calling ranges. I think calling axs here 100bb deep is burning money. At the same time it is a very common leak for regulars to call with these hands in this spot. As i said in my original post his range "Definitely could be wider or tighter" than what I posted. Because we do not know if he will call with these hands or not, I just put a portion of the hands in his range since some % of players will be calling them and some wont. That's why the range included 77-jj and not 22-77 as well as 89s-qjs but not 67s, 87s, and kqs.

The reason for QQ being in the flatting range, but AK not is because AK is much better to 4bet in this spot due to it blocking AA, KK, and AK. Both QQ and AK have ~40% equity against a stacking off range of AK, QQ+, but this stacking off range is 29 combos against QQ and 21 combos against AK, so your opponents will have that strong range roughly 30% less often.

Now I'm not sure if my original range of AJ, AQ, 77-qq and 89s-QJs. is weighted well at all. If you guys think villain's on average will have more or less hands then that I'd love to hear about it, but the correct range to compare our hand against should not be the completely unweighted extreme of someone calling with all the scs pps and Axs.

On flop my problem with betting is that i think overpairs, draws, combo draws, pair+fd/sd and some floats are in his calling range. The problem then comes when so many turn cards help his range alot so if we bet we are essentially turning our hand into a bluff, but checking the turn sucks too since he can bet a somewhat balanced range of draws (made or not), floats, and overpairs.

For this range I feel like just check/calling the flop can be good with a plan of c/f'ing turn as alot of players will split their range on turn, continuing to vbet their A range and taking a free card with draws/random overcard stabs. Also i really don't expect him to stab flop that often at all since again our perceived 3betting range is going to be really strong. This means we can vb turn rather profitably though since the draws in his range lose alot of equity and there are less overpairs since some bet flop.

This part is @ luck's high 3bet frequency comment:

If the villain is opening 49% of hands:
22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q5s+,J6s+,T6s+,96s+,85s+,75s+,64s+,5 4s,A2o+,K7o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T8o+,98o,87o,76o,65o

and he's continuing with the weighted range I posted + his 4betting range of KK+, AK then he continues 8.4% of hands. This means he folds (40.6/49)*100%=~82.9% of the time.

Hence the fold equity alone of our 3b bluff is:

.829*.45-.171*1.00=~$.2

With this bluff giving me one PTBB just from FE i feel my bluff frequency should be very high.

In retrospect; however, maybe T8o is included in too wide a range? what do you guys think?

combine that math with his adjusting in opening/calling 3bet / 4betting and add with money you lose in hand like one posted and you will be losing money :)

1. He can't adjust during this hand. After this hand I will tighten my 3b range so his adjustment wont exploit me.

2. My equity on the flop will be >>>>>0 not negative lol. I made money in this hand and saying that I should consider my postflop equity as negative is equivalent to saying that my postflop game would be better if i check folded every single board, even the times i flop 2 pairs, straights, trips, boats, and quads

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Originally Posted by Razvan729

combine that math with his adjusting in opening/calling 3bet / 4betting and add with money you lose in hand like one posted and you will be losing money :)

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just one more thing i wanna say here: poker is not a one hand game or a short term game, is a long term game and playing this hand 100 times WILL MAKE YOU LOSE MONEY. if you cant see why, then you have more and greater leaks then i do and believe me, i still have a lot even tho i am aware of them.

You say you don't have much history, but you assume that he opens 50% and folds 80%+ to your 3b?
Even if that were the case, it's still not right to 3b 100%, or even 75%, because it opens a huge and super obvious leak on your side.
It's the equivalent of noticing that your opponent plays a little too much rock in RPS, and you adjust by only playing paper.

I really don't have much experience in poker. I don't know if assuming a 50% BU open is high or low. I don't know if assuming he folds to my 3bs more or less than i posted. Thats why i posted so experienced players like you could make posts like this to let me know where my assumptions are off base.

On the RPS note if we notice villain plays a little to much rock shouldn't we play play paper the next time? Sure he can adjust after that time, but we have a small advantage this next toss, and we should exploit it 100% of the time. This is not to say we should throw paper again after this time, but instead we should just take this edge now while its here.

Carrying over to the hand I understand now that this 3b was too marginal and we should wait till we have a higher part of our folding range.

@razvan I'm sure you are far better at poker than me. i know i have leaks and thats why im posting i appreciate you talking over the hand with me, but at the same time I don't think you should ignore the fact that your logic about my -ev postflop equity and him adjusting to this spot in a vacuum when in a vacuum players can't adjust because its the same spot are leaks in your thought process. I may be a worse player, but that doesn't mean i can't be right about this.

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Originally Posted by oskar

You say you don't have much history, but you assume that he opens 50% and folds 80%+ to your 3b?
Even if that were the case, it's still not right to 3b 100%, or even 75%, because it opens a huge and super obvious leak on your side.
It's the equivalent of noticing that your opponent plays a little too much rock in RPS, and you adjust by only playing paper.

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about this hand, this particular hand you are right because you won it.

but i am not talking about this hand, this particular hand, i am talking ( prob like everyone else that will respond to this), i am talking about spots like this, cause like i said and everyone knows, poker is not a one hand game.

when you play a hand, you play it vs a villains range, not a particular hand of villains, we analyze a hand to know what to do in spots like this, this is why we never post results.

i am not saying you didnt play ok this hand, i am saying you didnt play ok this spot, spots like this will make you lose money.
and of course, in the same spot you may win a stack or lose a stack, but we analyze it to see whats the most profitable play for spots like that and choose that play, cause long run we will make money.


and in this hand, even if you won this time, the best +EV play is to fold pre,3betting this vs this player is -EV.

what do you do postflop? you c/c,cause that is your plan you said, why? what does he bets and you beat? your range for him, starting from there, on this board he will bet AJdd,AQdd,QJ,JT,9T ,TT ,99,JJ,QQ and vs this range you have 23% so you ALWAYS LOSE cause pot odds and not even implied odds are ok for you to call.

b/f flop and c/f later streets if not improving is best here.

when we bet flop 2/3, we have some FE+ equity vs his calling range that will make our betting +EV. but we will def be folding to a raise since our equity vs his raising range is damn little.

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Originally Posted by Mr. Bucket

I really don't have much experience in poker. I don't know if assuming a 50% BU open is high or low.

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high, very

Quote:

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I don't know if assuming he folds to my 3bs more or less than i posted.

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less, much

Quote:

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On the RPS note if we notice villain plays a little to much rock shouldn't we play play paper the next time? Sure he can adjust after that time, but we have a small advantage this next toss, and we should exploit it 100% of the time. This is not to say we should throw paper again after this time, but instead we should just take this edge now while its here.

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meh.
Often times in poker you see massive leaks in your opponent, but you cannot exploit them because you are not in a situation to do it. Like the times you sit in the sb with 8To facing a raise.

My last comment is you are trying to hard. You think your squeezing ever little bit of ev but all ur doing is putting urself in tough spots. You don't need this.

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Originally Posted by Mr. Bucket

3 bet bluffing a hand, admittedly not that close to the top of my folding range, against a player with reggish stats who most likely has a wide button opening range

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lots of assumption ITP

After reading several of your different posts in various threads it seems to me that you suffer from FPS and are results oriented.
In the micros fancy play will mostly cause you to be a long term loser and should be reserved for situations when you have some sort of a read that it may work against a particular opponent.
Against random opponents, moves like this 3bet bluff will get you into trouble quickly because most villains are going to call you down if they catch ANY piece of the flop. Your move worked this time only because your opponent probably had air and you did connect.
My recommendation is to stop trying to be fancier than, or to outplay your opponents, put them on some sort of a realistic range, just play ABC poker and scoop pots - rinse and repeat.

please fold this preflop.

I appreciate the advice and yeah i probably have FPS out the ass. I'm not results oriented though, the only reason I mentioned that I won this hand is cause i was respond to Raz~ 's comment about how I lost money this hand. He was saying my postflop equity was negative, which made no sense to me.

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Originally Posted by Shotglass

After reading several of your different posts in various threads it seems to me that you suffer from FPS and are results oriented.
In the micros fancy play will mostly cause you to be a long term loser and should be reserved for situations when you have some sort of a read that it may work against a particular opponent.
Against random opponents, moves like this 3bet bluff will get you into trouble quickly because most villains are going to call you down if they catch ANY piece of the flop. Your move worked this time only because your opponent probably had air and you did connect.
My recommendation is to stop trying to be fancier than, or to outplay your opponents, put them on some sort of a realistic range, just play ABC poker and scoop pots - rinse and repeat.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Mr. Bucket

He was saying my postflop equity was negative, which made no sense to me.

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I only skimmed this thread...

Just because you won the hand doesn't mean that your equity isn't negative. That sir would be results orientated ;)

Also if your that much of a beginner, DO NOT PLAY THIS HAND EVER! Like others have said you will just lose money in the long run. There are plenty more hands you can 3bet in this spot. Especially at these stakes. Learning ABC poker sounds easy, but it's surprising how long it actually takes to develop. There just isn't any reason to get fancy at all. Discipline is a major thing to learn, and its not easy.

Oh and by the way... when he calls your 3bet you manipulate his range to all hands that have you crushed. Not to say that these crazy moves don't work sometimes.

I hope everybody in this thread gave you what you were asking for. :)

edit: wait what? you plan on check calling flop? At this point your hoping a cbet takes down the pot. Anything else, and your going to be OH SHIT. That goes for if you missed the flop too. See how this gets you into trouble? Start by only 3betting strong value ranges and go from there later.

If you have to write more than a few sentences to justify your actions in the micros you prob should the opposite of what your long winded analysis indicates.

thanks for all the comments, i get the 3bet pre is way too light and i get c/c is a terrible flop idea.

I wasn't saying our equity isn't negative in the hand. I was saying our postflop equity isn't negative. If we c/f every single board our postflop equity=0 and i think our postflop play is better then that. Then again maybe you guys are suggesting my postflop game is bad enough that I will lose myself more money than c/f'ing every board.

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Originally Posted by Smith

Just because you won the hand doesn't mean that your equity isn't negative. That sir would be results orientated ;)

r.

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Originally Posted by Mr. Bucket

Then again maybe you guys are suggesting my postflop game is bad enough that I will lose myself more money than c/f'ing every board.

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Well, you think about it. You checked the flop after a three bet bluff.