66 CO+1 - putting opponent on a hand

I think that this is a very interesting hand and I just want to get some opinions on my line. Raise 3x from CO+1 with 66 when folded to is pretty standard I would say, people at this table are generally pretty tight. Button calls, he is pretty nitty VP:10, PFR:10, and I would say his range is any suited broadways and maybe lower pocket pairs, I think he would 3bet with TT+ and maybe AK and AQs. On the flop the board is paired which is a concern but I think that it is unlikely that he holds a 7 as the only hand that I think he would call pre with that contains a 7 is 77 although A7s is also possible but unlikely given his stats so I make a standard c-bet -> he calls. At this point I think that he may be trying to float me as he probably thinks that I have also missed the flop and that I am just making a standard c-bet but I check the turn nonetheless to see what he does. He makes a half pot size bet which seems consistent with floating suited broadways to make a turn steal (I have been playing with stats of about 20/20 so far at this table so he may think that I made the initial raise with slightly less than premium broadways so his play makes sense). I call the bet and decide based on the above reasoning and his stack size (about $1.20) to make a pot size bet and hence put him all in. He folds and I feel as though I played the hand well.

Does my line make sense?


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (7 handed)


CO ($1.87)
Button ($2.07)
SB ($2.50)
BB ($2.11)
UTG ($5.10)
MP1 ($6.96)
Hero (MP2) ($5.67)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif
2 folds, Hero bets $0.15, 1 fold, Button calls $0.15, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.37) 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $0.25, Button calls $0.25

Turn: ($0.87) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $0.45, Hero calls $0.45

River: ($1.77) 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $1.77, 1 fold

Total pot: $1.77 | Rake: $0.11

"I have been playing with stats of about 20/20 so far at this table so he may think that I made the initial raise with slightly less than premium broadways so his play makes sense" - what does this mean?


1. Not really too sure about flop. You didn't tell us anything about villain's tendencies, nor the # of hands you have on him. My instinct is we cannot bet flop since villain's calling range is going to be PPs (based on stats he's more likely to have 88-jj here than 22,33,55 and he is calling with the former pairs, but not necessarily with the latter), and potentially overs, although without reads i think assuming a random short stacking 10/10 at 5nl will be floating us wide is kind of ridiculous.


2. Turn again i think the deduction that he's floating us most of the time here is a bit sketchy here again. Also because of the way sizing works out i expect he will be shoving river a huge % of the time which brings me to my last point.

3. IMO the biggest problem with your thought process is on this river. You assume his range is composed of a bunch of suited broadways, which you attempt to exploit by shoving the river. This makes no sense because suited broadways will fold river when you bet, but may bluff when checked to. For this reason if his range on this river really is composed primarily of broadways your best line would be a c/c.

Again i really don't get how you came to the conclusion that the 10/10 is super likely to be floating you. I guess my line would be to c/c flop and probably c/f most turns. I really don't know if this is the best way to handle this spot though so I'd really appreciate any commentary on my thought process.

Problem 1, shirt stack villain probably not looking to float you. And villain usually willing to get all in with fairly marginal holdings.

Problem 2, while you've told us what you think villain is thinking about you re flop, and that you think he's still weak at the river you haven't said what your trying to Rep. Why does your line make sense?

I also like c/c river. Your putting your villain on a hand that you beat and that never calls the river. Where's the value in betting? You lose the pot bet when he had a hand and gain nothing most of the time. Or you can risk nothing to win when he checks behind or you induce a bet that gets you some value if your confident in your impaired overcards read.

I think you feel like you played it well because a you responded to the result, and your going to bust $$ the other 9 out of 10 times you triple barrel a shortstack with a hand you'd rather not showdown.

dont mind betting flop, but c/f turn and as played c/c river for the reason above, no better folds ( except 88) and no worse call. by c/c river you allow him to try and bluff his air or bet worse PP.

i'm certainly betting this flop. though i'm uncertain about my reasoning for doing so. while it's true we are rarely ahead of his range when called, i think a cbet is in order to "protect our equity", not that i really like that term, against the missed broadways which have 25%ish equity and never give us a street of value unless they improve. he is probably going to be folding enough to make a +EV cbet in a vacuum based on fold equity, and our hand is vulnerable to a lot of turn cards. plus we're OOP. that logic could well be faulty though.

once he calls i'm check/folding the turn without specific reads that he likes to float, such as low abnormally low fold to flop cbet, high turn AFq etc.

IMO, your line doesn't really make any sense. You c-bet the flop, c/c the turn and pot the river - what are you trying to rep here?

I'd c-bet the flop mainly because @ 10/10 and short stacked he's normally not going to float and will fold if he's missed the flop. I might fire a second barrel if I think I can push him off his hand. Some sort of read, like previous folds to a 2nd. Either way, I'm not betting the river mostly c/c possibly a c/f, depending on circumstances.

You are all right! My line doesn't really make any sense. If I was right about his hand then I shouldn't have played it the way I did. I think cbetting the flop was correct and either c/f or fire again on the turn.

For some reason against this opponent I think firing the second barrel is the better option as I just can't see him connecting with this board although he possibly hit the turn I think the only reason he called the flop bet is because he thought that I too had nothing. Bad reasoning?

Thanks for the input, this is the stuff I need to hear.



*edit* would firing again on the turn and having him call make us both pot committed because of effective stack sizes? I haven't worked this out as this is a quick post but it is a valid thought I think although it would depend on the size of the raise I guess, I am just thinking as I type here....

Quote:

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Originally Posted by frjd2

For some reason against this opponent I think firing the second barrel is the better option as I just can't see him connecting with this board although he possibly hit the turn I think the only reason he called the flop bet is because he thought that I too had nothing. Bad reasoning?

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i wouldn't go ahead and make such assumptions without reads. imo his flop calling range is largely going to be 44-QQ, the only one of these which folds on the turn is probably 55 (which you have beat and is unlikely to try to bluff you because it has perceived SD value). if we pretend that we know for fact that his range is 44-QQ, then on the turn his range is

44 (1)
55 (6)
66 (1)
77 (3)
88 (6)
99 (3)
TT-QQ (18)
total of 38 combinations

of these 38 combinations, probably only 55 folds. this means your opponent is folding 6/38 = 15% of the time. thus your fold equity is very low, and you are dead to 2 outs vs his calling range (translating to having very little pot equity), which is why i think c/f > b/f or b/c.

edit: to further the above point, if you bet say 3/4 pot, you require ~42% folds in a vacuum. by this i mean "assuming you have no pot equity when called" which isn't exactly the case (because we have two outs against most of his calling range), but it's close to the truth (we have 6% against 44,66-QQ). thus he is going to need to be floating you a decent amount of the time on the flop in order to meet your required fold frequncy on the turn. simply because you have very little equity when called, and as such rely heavily on fold equity. this guy has pretty tight, reggish stats, and no history with you, so i'm inclined to think he is playing relatively straightforward, and thus we will struggle to meet our required fold frequency.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by frjd2

*edit* would firing again on the turn and having him call make us both pot committed because of effective stack sizes? I haven't worked this out as this is a quick post but it is a valid thought I think although it would depend on the size of the raise I guess, I am just thinking as I type here....

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not really, because once he calls the turn we know we have like 6% equity against his range, assuming that he is very unlikely to double-float (i think he's pretty unlikely to float one street, and basically never going to double-float with such a short stack). so with 6% equity we are hardly ever going to be priced into calling a river bet. that said, i still think C/F'ing the turn is the best play.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by rpm

44 (1)
55 (6)
66 (1)
77 (3)
88 (6)
99 (3)
TT-QQ (18)
total of 38 combinations

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You make a very convincing argument. Do you mean by the above that there is only one combination of 44 that he may hold? Typo? surely there are three and only one combination of 77 -still gives the same result.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by rpm

not really, because once he calls the turn we know we have like 6% equity against his range, assuming that he is very unlikely to double-float (i think he's pretty unlikely to float one street, and basically never going to double-float with such a short stack). so with 6% equity we are hardly ever going to be priced into calling a river bet. that said, i still think C/F'ing the turn is the best play.

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I think I see more clearly where I went wrong now, I am working hard on the reasoning behind the decisions I make at the table, so this has been very helpful. Check fold was probably best on the turn.

thanks!

he meant 3*44 and 1*77 but just mixtem up... that all :)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by frjd2

Do you mean by the above that there is only one combination of 44 that he may hold? Typo? surely there are three and only one combination of 77 -still gives the same result.

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yeah you're right, sorry. because i used a quote in my response i couldn't see the actual HH, i wrote the combos out thinking the board was 447 instead of 774.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by frjd2

thanks!

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pleasure

Quote:

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Originally Posted by frjd2

I think I see more clearly where I went wrong now

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do not, by any means, take my word as the gospel. i'm as big a fish as anyone.