Fun AA hand

Sup gais, played this hand yesterday.

19/15 over 27 hands, no other reads.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($10.90)
Hero (MP) ($10)
Button ($19.91)
SB ($19.72)
BB ($6.84)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A:spade:, A:diamond:
1 fold, Hero bets $0.40, Button calls $0.40, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.95) J:club:, 8:spade:, K:diamond: (2 players)
Hero bets $0.70, Button calls $0.70

Turn: ($2.35) K:spade: (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, Button calls $1.50

River: ($5.35) 3:heart: (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $2.50, [color=#666666][i]Hero weighs up some stuff

Firstly I'll go through the hand and say what I think is the best line then I'll talk about the river.

Pre and flop are fine, slightly bigger cbet won't hurt.

Turn is not the best card however he certainly has worse hands like Jx/QT/T9s that may call again. Bet/fold with this sizing is good imo. Check/call puts us in a tough spot on the river.

I think a blocking bet might be a good plan OTR, maybe like $1.50? As played we need 24% equity to make this call.

He can have stuff like JJ/88 since people love to slowplay sets, KJ usually raises flop and is mostly discounted.

Weighting up his remaining hands, KQ/KT raise the turn about 25% of the time and will always bet river. So lets say 14 combos of KQ/KT/KJ.

Hands which need to bluff this river are QT/T9s (20 combos) but they don't always call turn or bluff river. If they call turn 50% and then bluff river 1/2 of the time that's 5 combos.

So his total value range is KQ/KT/KJ/JJ (17), if he has 5 combos of QT/T9s it's just barely a call.

Thoughts?

I think it's fine as played as long as you called the river. I think he won't have too many KT as well as KQ being discounted just slightly because it's 10NL and some/most players would raise the turn. I think river is better than betting $1.50 at least if we can make calling a larger bet ($2.50) +EV. I think c/c is better than leading larger too because his betting range >>> mid/large bet-size calling range.

I wish I could have fun too.

if i checked the river i'm probably never folding no matter what he bets

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Originally Posted by bikes

if i checked the river i'm probably never folding no matter what he bets

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This^^

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I wish I could have fun too

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and def this^^

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Originally Posted by bikes

if i checked the river i'm probably never folding no matter what he bets

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+1 it doesn't make sense to c/c here pretty much ever.

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Originally Posted by Donachello

+1 it doesn't make sense to c/c here pretty much ever.

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if i checked the river i'm probably never folding no matter what he bets

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Can you guys explain why you think this?

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Originally Posted by HoopyDude

Can you guys explain why you think you think this?

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Because his range at this point is pretty exclusively air or Kx(or better). The draws that missed that he can hold rep an extremely thin range seeing as how the flop was a rainbow and we hold the As which takes away some BDs fds he may have floated the flop with and picked up equity on the turn. QT is the only legitimate straight draw he could have and I don't think that even calls when the turn pairs (most people give up their draws on paired turns unless they have a pair as well).

While he may be calling flop/turn with Jx or 8x neither of those is ever betting the river.

You either make the decision to bet for thin value on the river thinking that he doesn't hold that many Kx and that Jx 8x PPs are calling or you decide to check and fold to any bet putting him on the range I outlined in the first paragraph.

Bluff catching only works if a lot of their range is made of bluffs, otherwise it's just burning money. Hope that helps.

I'm confused because you quoted bikes who said he's always c/c not c/f.

I like your analysis and can agree to a point, but I think he can have some T9 there too and I think Jx is actually betting sometimes. I disagree that you should c/f always and actually think c/c is better than c/f here.

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Originally Posted by Donachello

While he may be calling flop/turn with Jx or 8x neither of those is ever betting the river.

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Villain could bluff Jx/8x hands to try and fold out QQ/99 etc, or the Jx hands might even value bet, I've seen stranger value bets in position on the river. I can c/c this river all day long.

b/f river doesn't seem great to me, it gives him the chance to either fold or raise his junk. I think the weakest he calls is AJ, but he's betting wider than this.

I like the line hero took. I'd c/c any river bet up to pot. Probably fold to an overbet, unless I have notes he's capable of crazy river bluffs.

I should probably learn to read.

Regardless I think it's closer than "never folding to a bet"

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Originally Posted by Donachello

I should probably learn to read.

Regardless I think it's closer than "never folding to a bet"

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i would almost never check this river unless i had a read they bluff missed draws a lot. so thus the if i were to check i would never fold to any bet.

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Originally Posted by bikes

i would almost never check this river unless i had a read they bluff missed draws a lot. so thus the if i were to check i would never fold to any bet.

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That's true. I'd be firing 3 here nearly all the time. Point taken

what worse is calling on the river then? Maybe AJ/QQ if you bet like 2 bucks or less but probably not, much more likely he has a kang imo.