20NL JJ OOP on the river

Villain was 30/10/2 over a small sample and I had no relevant reads. Had 0 fold to cbet flop and 100 fold to cbet turn but this was only over 1-2 occurances so almost irrelevant.

Flop was not too bad and I feel warrants a cbet almost everytime.
Turn is a scare card and I think I convinced myself to barrel given villain is passive, given board is scary and given check/call or check/fold seem too weak. Not sure what line is best on the turn though in hindsight. I also made a small draw if up against Qx or 7x.
River is horrible, floating cards got there and I can hardly represent anything. My issue is if I check, I feel I am facing a river bet that I can not call.

Basically: Confused and some insight would be appreciated.


iPoker - $0.20 NL - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BTN: $13.83
SB: $44.88
BB: $7.98
UTG: $21.40
Hero (CO): $19.71

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.20

Pre Flop: ($0.30) Hero has Js Jd

fold, Hero raises to $0.60, BTN calls $0.60, fold, fold

Flop: ($1.50, 2 players) Qd 7d 7h
Hero bets $1.00, BTN calls $1.00

Turn: ($3.50, 2 players) 6d
Hero bets $2.00, BTN calls $2.00

River: ($7.50, 2 players) Ks
Hero checks, BTN checks

i don't really like betting this turn. his flop calling range is something like Qx, 22-QQ, and flush draws. once this turn card falls the only worse hands in his continuing range are probably 88-JJ (21 hand combinations), which i feel is outweighed by Qx hands and flush draws which have you beat and aren't folding.

as played i can't think of very many worse hands which call a river bet (perhaps 99-TT some of the time) or any better hands that fold. so i'm checking. probably check/folding because i don't think he will value bet worse, and there aren't too many hands that get to the river that i'd expect him to turn into bluffs

ps

welcome to FTR. good to see a new poster who includes stats and reads for their opponents in the hand histories they post. if you want, post the raw HH text and i can convert it for you so it's easier to read.

Check the turn, and just fold to a decent sized bet, your equity is pretty meh vs his continuing range since there are more combos of Qx and better continuing than any worse hands.

Not sure why you're so worried about simply c/f this river. he has very little to no air in his range here, will checkback worse pairs and maybe even ace high if he even has that and bet everything that beats you (Qx 7x flushes) Very easy c/f, you have no reason to feel you're being exploited by taking this line.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by rpm

ps

welcome to FTR. good to see a new poster who includes stats and reads for their opponents in the hand histories they post.

---

This too! Good first post.

Thanks for the kind words, always nice to feel welcome.

As played I definitely agree that the river is c/f, although in the heat of the moment I was trying to convince myself that I could get Qx to fold. I was never betting the river for value, although in hindsight, turning JJ into a bluff is never the best idea either.

The thought process around my bet/fold line on the turn was more centred around the flop being ideal to float, and so many horrible cards that can come on the river. At that point in time, I had next to no idea as to the strength of villains hand.

i doubt you're ever getting top pair to fold to 2-barrels at these stakes, not even with three barrels vs some opponents. best to try to take your JJ to showdown here imo against the part of his range you do beat (middlish pairs).