Exact EV practice

Hey guys I've been doing a bit more maths lately and just want to make sure I'm not practicing it the wrong way. I'm pretty sure I did it right, I'd love if you guys could check tho. Cheers :)

Villain is pretty standard fish 62/29 2.6 ag factor and 52 ag Fq over 34 hands

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
FullTiltPoker
8 Players


Stacks:
UTG caterpiller ($25.70)
UTG+1 JohnGa ($24.21)
MP1 SuhtPaska ($38.66)
MP2 Hero ($34.53)
CO Anne Oak ($25)
BTN Mr_GK_87 ($25)
SB MADXplayingMAD ($36.49)
BB Petrohann ($25)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 8 players) Hero is MP2 :ah: :as:
3 folds, Hero raises to $1, 2 folds, MADXplayingMAD calls $0.90, 1 fold

Flop: :4d: :td: :ks: ($2.25, 2 players)
MADXplayingMAD bets $2.25, Hero raises to $6.75, MADXplayingMAD goes all-in $35.49, Hero ?

EQUITY
After he jams the flop I range him on pretty much AK, sets, 2p and all his NFD’s and FD + TP combos

TT,44,AKs,AdQd,AdJd,Ad9d,Ad8d,Ad7d,Ad6d,Ad5d,Ad3d, Ad2d,KdQd,KdJd,KTs,Kd9d,Kd8d,Kd7d,Kd6d,Kd5d,K4s,Kd 3d,Kd2d,AKo,KTo

Which gives us 45.24% equity
And Him 54.76%

POT EQUITY
BET/(BET+POT)
BET = 26.78
POT = 44.49

26.78/(26.78+44.49)
26.78/71.27
= 0.3754735512838501
= 37.55% Pot Equity

45.24% equity > 37.55% Pot Equity

so it's EV+ :)

EXACT EV

EV = (%win) x (amount win) – (%lose) x (amount lose)

Win % = 45.25% or 0.4525
Amount win = 44.49
Lose % = 54.76% or 0.5676
Amount lose = 26.78

EV = 0.4525 x 44.49 - 0.5676 x 26.78
EV = 20.131725 - 15.200328
EV = 4.931397
EV = $4.93
So in theory if we could be in this exact spot over and over we would be making an average of $4.93 every time we call this jam

you seem to have done everything correctly

a more interesting analysis would be to pull out a hand that's not involving an all-in call situation; assign a range on every street, chop up the range into A, B, C and D, assign probabilities and count combos. as a result we are able to more clearly see what our most +EV course of action is.

how come you don't hang out in IRC btw?

Yeah I've only just started getting into combos. That sounds like a good idea i'll try it later on. By A,B,C,D ranges do you mean? like A = most likely B = second most likely?

Yeah I should get back into IRC I've been on holidays the last 3 months so I've been skateboarding a lot and when I'm on the computer I'm usually either grinding or studying. But now I'm back at uni I have super long days and we do fuck all haha so I'm like chillin on the net a fuckload :D

Not sure how you got 71.27 for the total pot after you call. You start with effective stacks of 34.53, so total pot in the end should be 34.53*2 plus the 0.25 BB, that is 69.31.

Pardon my ignorance but what is ag fq? And what do the numbers next to ag factor(agression?) Symbolize?

62/29 2.6 ag factor

62 means this chap / chapess voluntarily puts into the pot 62% of the time .(thats high, makes him a fish who chases draws)

29 means he rises preflop 29 % of the time.

Ag factor , im not sure .

There was a thread about that a few months ago, talking about HEM street by street aggression frequency compared to PT3 aggression factor. Can't find it now, I thought it was added to some digest of whatever. If someone knows, please link.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by FoundDeadOn5thStreet

Pardon my ignorance but what is ag fq? And what do the numbers next to ag factor(agression?) Symbolize?

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http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...or-162933.html

Quote:

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Originally Posted by chatzilla

Yeah I've only just started getting into combos. That sounds like a good idea i'll try it later on. By A,B,C,D ranges do you mean? like A = most likely B = second most likely?

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Renton Theorem aka ABCD Theorem

Enjoy man

Quote:

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Originally Posted by daviddem

There was a thread about that a few months ago, talking about HEM street by street aggression frequency compared to PT3 aggression factor. Can't find it now, I thought it was added to some digest of whatever. If someone knows, please link.

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http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...sa-181463.html