Indepth 25nl stats analysis, hopes of 50nl

I've been grinding 25nl for a while now. Since the new year I've been actively trying harder to improve my game and here are all my stats so far this year.

http://i851.photobucket.com/albums/a...la/stats-2.png

http://i851.photobucket.com/albums/a...la/graph-5.png

http://i851.photobucket.com/albums/a...negraph1-1.png

Here are some things i need to work on:

My BU VPIP and PFR can be way higher and intern my ATS as well

Other Possible problems:
I play pretty much the same in UTG-MP2
My CBET Flop and Turn are a tad on the high side
Not 3betting enough from the BU

Is my redline too steep? here are my graphs for

Everywhere but the blinds
http://i851.photobucket.com/albums/a...noblinds-1.png

and BB and SB

http://i851.photobucket.com/albums/a...lla/BBSB-1.png

I have over 30BI's for 50nl. Do you think is it worth hanging around at 25nl and trying to increase my winrate or should I just take a shot at 50nl now?
Cheers guys I'd love for you to find other leaks or even tell me to filter my database to check for common problems.

Thanks again

is 15k hands all you have at 25nl or just your most recent sample?....if its all you have played i would wait until at least like 30k hands total before moving up....if you have played a bunch but have just played well for the last 15k hands and you are over rolled and feeling confident, then theres no reason not to move up imo, just be disciplined by making rules and sticking to them.

Holy shitballs you are a fucking massive nit. Your W$SD is absurdly high. I'll be honest, this style will probably allow you to be like a 1BB/100 winner at 50NL, mayyyyyyyyyyybe .5BB at 100. But certainly not higher. So now you gotta ask yourself do you think you are capable or playing looser to move higher or are you comfortable just grinding out a super small but consistent winrate at 25s and possibly 50s?

For comparison, I open twice as many hands as you do from the BU and CO, about 6% more from the HJ, 4% more from UTG-MP, I 3bet twice as much pre, ATS is 2.5x yours. and my redline is fairly flat with a slight downward trend. Your cbet % is pretty solid. Looks like you can also add some more 3bets to your blind game and possibly give some 3bets a bit less respect IP. Obviously you're doing some things right because you are winning and I am not saying that my stats are 100% the correct way to play since I think I am probably a bit too loose but you can certainly flatten out your redline a bit, also flatting good hands in position and learning to float and raise good board textures in position is something to work on eventually.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Donachello

Holy shitballs you are a fucking massive nit.

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This is StarGrinder and I approve of this message.

You can always take a 5 buy in shot at 50nl. Could be good for, if it doesn't work, drop down work on getting your ATS up. If it does get comfy and slowly start expanding your game.

But, man you are nit. Then again nothing wrong with being a winning nit!

-!luck

The first obvious thing that screams to me is your stealing. You need to steal MUCH more.

STOP GODDAMN FUCKING CALLING IT TAKING A FUCKING SHOT FOR FUCK'S FUCKING SAKE JESUS GODDAMN CHRIST

In all seriousness, it's not taking a shot. It's moving up. Stop calling it taking a shot. That includes you too, !luck.

(12:33:24 PM) spoonitnow: it's like basic tenets of brm
(12:34:14 PM) spoonitnow: "taking a shot" requires that the game you're going to be playing is otherwise outside of normal brm
(12:34:31 PM) SrslySirius: i know what you mean
(12:34:42 PM) SrslySirius: things arent going so well at 50nl, so I think i'll take a shot at 25nl again
(12:34:51 PM) spoonitnow: ldo

shot taking here is fine but i think you are absurdly nitty, to the like point of winrate crippling nitty

You need to add RFI to your positional stats to make them really useful.

Why do you open the same range from UTG to HJ????

Wow thanks for the replies guys haha no denying i am nitty as shit.

Philly I've played about 45k at 25nl this 15k was just since 2011.

I totally agree with what you guys are saying I defiantly want to improve my winrate, game and move up. Being a solid TAG not a RB pro NIT.

I think for now I'll stay at 25 for another 10k hands or so then see how my adjustments are going.

so THINGS I NEED TO WORK ON:

BU: Open way wider and steal more. 3bet more.

CO: open up more

HJ: open up a bit more

UTG -MP2: open up a tiny bit more at so that we can at least see a small difference between these 4 seats?

I think that's a good start. Anything else you guys think i should start working on?

Icanhastreebet here's my positional stats with RFI not quite sure how to interpret it tho.
http://i851.photobucket.com/albums/a...Untitled-3.png
In the HJ i open ~ 22+ AJ+ KQs and UTG i open ~ 88+ AQ+

I guess i can include ATs KQo QJs JTs in my HJ range

Always keep an eye on your opponents, if the seat(s) to your left are nitty, you can open wider in the CO and HJ. Play pots with the loose/fishy players, it's always the best way to open up your ranges. Think in terms of profitable situations rather than profitable starting hands.

Also, 11.5 pfr from the SB seems really high to me, but your winrate there seems ok, this might just be a sample size issue.

About moving up: people over think it. It's very simple. Move up when your bankroll tells you to. Have a plan and stick to it. The games are different, but not by much so don't psyche yourself out.

If you are going to start opening up in later positions, make sure your decisions are taking into account who is yet to act. For example, sometimes it's appropriate to be opening atc on the button, but stating "I'm going to add xxxxxx in to my range from this position" is pretty bad imo and shows an area of your game that needs serious work.

It's as if you have developed a strategy of what to do where that works ok, but you should be playing the player and your game should vary somewhat from table to table depending on the player types surrounding you.

Quote:

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Think in terms of profitable situations rather than profitable starting hands.

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I really like this quote dev.

Dan I understand how you could think that given what i wrote. What I ment was I can include those hands in a lot more situations from the HJ. I think my biggest leak is undervaluing position. I defiantly am trying to play the situation not 'AQo from UTG' ect. But a reminder doesn't hurt :)
Cheers guys

Lol wow, my RFI on the BU and CO is like 60 xD

yaawn/DC, what is RFI?

raise first in. aka it folds to you and you raise

17 vpip from BU... Id stay at 25 and increase your winrate

If players more profitable than you consistently have one stat higher or lower than you, it's best to find which profitable situations they see that you don't. The stats sort of vaguely point you in the right direction, but plenty of profitable players have spent months losing trying to set their stats 'right'. Check out jym's struggles with his red line a year or so ago (somewhere in the blogs and ops).

Trying to fix stats directly is a huge mistake. More specifically, don't open a bigger hand range on the button because we say you can make more money that way. You're only going to realize that profit by understanding why you can open wider against the players at your tables and applying that understanding.

Systems don't work. Opening a bigger range is just editing your system. Know why you do what you do and you can get a lot better a lot quicker.

good base. You know how to nit and you know discipline.
First 3 positions look fine.
open up some from MP2 on, best to do this by opening up a little from CO and bu first.
You're missing a bunch of value post-flop, 61% W$WSD is insanely high.
Your c-bet stats are NOT too high, they are a reflection of the fact that your preflop ranges are so strong that you are basically able to value/rep most flops.

If you decide to make changes then you should do this at 25nl. Moving up at the same time as changing your winning game is a recipe for moving back down.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by chatzilla

In the HJ i open ~ 22+ AJ+ KQs and UTG i open ~ 88+ AQ+

I guess i can include ATs KQo QJs JTs in my HJ range

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ranges shouldn't be static. as per http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...nt-172962.html

also - there are a couple of posts in my op thread recently showing a few sets of positional stats, one from a solid winning reg. Go take a look at those.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by chatzilla

In the HJ i open ~ 22+ AJ+ KQs and UTG i open ~ 88+ AQ+

I guess i can include ATs KQo QJs JTs in my HJ range

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Daven I read your rant and blog, great read. I feel like i am at the stage in my poker 'carrer' where i have enough knowledge of fundamentals to potentially be a solid winner; if I work super hard, put in good volume, and post lots of hands. Or I could just do what I'm doing and slowly ship the nickles.

I am goning to stay at 25 and work on KNOWING WHY ;) i'm opening up looser.

My W$WSD being crazy high means I'm folding when I'm ahead? it's meant to be around 50-55 right? So in theory I should consider calling down lighter in certian situations to lower it?

it has already been mentioned, but if you are beating 25nl for a decent winrate and you're hardly even stealing blinds, you could be beating it for a shitton more. and being comfortable playing weaker ranges aggressively in position is something i'd definitely want to be comfortable doing, to an extent, before playing 50nl. if you've never checked them out, i'd advise searching for spoon's threads on blind stealing, raising behind limpers etc etc. i imagine they're in the digest. good luck!