Printable View
So I am running a little cold lately, on multiple sites. That aside...
I am 4/4 getting KK and running into AA Tonight. I know this is super small sample {1K hands}
Question is this: What are the odds that you will run into AA when dealt KK in a 6max game?
Odds of being dealt any PP is 220-to-1 but the odds of being dealt AA and someone else being dealt pocket kings is slightly less, as the two aces are gone. So, the odds of someone being dealt KK and another having AA is 205-to-1. However, that only applies when you are heads-up against a single player, against a full table with nine other opponents you will find yourself in an AA vs KK situation once in every 20 times you are dealt either PP.
The reason having AA vs KK is usually so profitable is that the player with KK rarely worries about the other having a higher pair as it will only happen to them around 4.4% of the time they hold KK and they just shove arrin. The problem is that when they do ship they'll be ~82% dog.
In today's 9-handed nitty ring games, I'm less likely to ship KK preflop vs certain players in which I have solid notes on. For 6-max, it's obviously happening less often and be more willing to ship vs FR ldo.
Less than what star said as this is 6max. Also.... this is dangerously close to being moved to tilt forum.
!luck
With 100bb stacks or less, it is extremely rare that it is correct to fold KK preflop. Like opp A raises, opp B reraises and opp C who is a nit shoves. Then you can start thinking about folding KK.
As Stargrinder said, not only it will only happen 4.4% of the time that your KK runs into AA, but even then you will still win about 1/5th of the time.
Refer Sammy Farha vs Barry Greenstein in season 1 of High Stakes Poker... The reason he hesitated so long is because of the depth of the stacks.
That was the last hand of the night IIRC and they were like 250bb deep. Greenstein took it like a man though.Quote:
Originally Posted by daviddem
It's like 42:1 or something on a 6max table, but getting KK in pre is never a mistake on the everleaf network.
I think you need to put more time into studying and making yourself into a better player, rather than dwell on things you don't have control over
The odds of KK running into AA change a lot depending on the villains range, their range of course changes depending on their actions. Its not very useful to just look at the odds of being dealt one hand vs another in a complete vacuum when making a decision.
It depends it think of how many people are left to act. If your utg, then the chance is higher than on the btn.
I think Phil Gordon had a easy calculation for this on his website.
I think it was something like take whatever PP (in this case KK) and multiply the number of players remaining by the number of over pairs (in this case 1) then divide by 2.
So 1 overpair better x lets say 5 players remaining div by 2 = 2.5%
What I did not understand is why Greenstein declined Farha's kind offer to run it twice after the K showed up on the flop.Quote:
Originally Posted by StarGrinder
bout tree fiddy how the fuck is this not locked
i blame !lock
agree, this is basically a "im running bad" post with a half assed/somewhat pointless question thrown inQuote:
Originally Posted by spoonitnow
trivial pursuit itt