KK vs. UTG limper + checkraise

He limped UTG so I figured two possible things:
1. He's a decent player with a small pp looking to hit a set or
2. Fish
I think his stats were 30/15ish
Calling my raise didn't help me figure him out cause he would call in either case.

When villain c/r the flop I think:
1. He flopped a set
2. Something like JT
3. QQ+

I call since it was a min. raise, planning to fold to any big lead out on the turn. I figure its less likely he hit a set b/c he would have raised me more. I'm ahead of any draws and QQ. AA has me beat but I'm not too worried.


Weak bet on the turn, I flat call to keep the pot under control since I'm not too sure what he is doing, although it does seem to me more of a hand like JT, QT at this point. Pretty much same thought process for the river.



Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (7 handed) -


CO ($5)
Button ($5.05)
SB ($6.15)
BB ($2.14)
UTG ($4.02)
Hero (MP1) ($5)
MP2 ($5.34)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif
UTG calls $0.05, Hero bets $0.20, MP2 calls $0.20, 4 folds, UTG calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.67) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.45, 1 fold, UTG raises to $0.95, Hero calls $0.50

Turn: ($2.57) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG bets $0.80, Hero calls $0.80

River: ($4.17) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif (2 players)
UTG bets $1.26, Hero calls $1.26

Total pot: $6.69 | Rake: $0.44

Quote:

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Originally Posted by madurskim

1. He flopped a set
2. Something like JT
3. QQ+

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So you are putting him on {QQ+, 77, 99, 33, JT}

Why do you think JT or QT type hand?

Did you consider {A9s}?

your opening should be here 5bb at least.
flop he c/r and he is 30/15 so he is opening TT+, that leaves sets on flop , w/o reads he plays like this PP/straight draws/bluffs its a deff fold,you will get him someother time with another hand.
so b/f flop and watch him other hands.

supose he does limp any PP including TT+/stove sets and TT+ in his range and its still a fold.

First opp is not full stacked and his bet sizing sucks, so he must be pretty bad.

Don't you think he'd be more likely to raise QQ+ preflop UTG? If he is the kind to limp/reraise his strong hands, well, that's not what he did: he limp/called.

If you include QQ+, how about TT-JJ? But I am pretty sure he would raise that preflop as well.

Not sure why you have JT in his flop raising range. JT only has a gutshot and the two overs can't be considered clean outs, so why would he raise?

T8s, maybe.

Considering all this, it looks to me that his range is pretty heavily weighted towards sets. Occasionally, from really bad opps, you could be shown a horribly played AA, or T8s, or JJ or TT. I tend not to assume that unknown=complete retard though. So I think folding the flop is certainly not horrible.

In these situations, you pretty much have to make your commitment decision on the flop. Your plan of folding to a big turn lead is flawed, since he can get his stack in by the river with small bets. So on the flop, if you have less than 50% equity vs his range, fold. If you think you beat his range, might as well shove right there because he doesn't look like he is going to fold anything he's got.

I consider A9s at first but his betting pattern/style didn't change from the turn to the river so it seemed to me that the 9 didn't improve his hand.


How's this look?

Board: 9h 3c 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.787% 54.57% 01.22% 22149 495.00 { KcKs }
Hand 1: 44.213% 42.99% 01.22% 17451 495.00 { 99+, 77, 33, A9s, T8s }


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or this:

Board: 9h 3c 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.943% 25.94% 00.00% 3082 0.00 { KcKs }
Hand 1: 74.057% 74.06% 00.00% 8798 0.00 { 99, 77, 33, A9s }

I think T8s is rather unlikely. TBH, the limp/call preflop is either a super passive / bad player, or it is set mining.

Whichever it is, when he starts raising, you're beat most of the time. I don't mind folding. Don't forget that KK is a preflop monster but on the flop and after, all it is is a pair... Learning to release AA/KK when you're beat or even in marginal spots is a key to winning. You'll occasionally lay down the best hand, but that will easily be made up for with all the times you won't loose your stack.

Okay, I'm not trying to argue and stubbornly justify my calling, I'm just trying to make sure I understand everything as best I can....


How come this situation isn't similar to this:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerforum/beginners-circle/qq-button-vs-3xbb-raise-many-callers-185797.html
where I was told that I should def. call because I'm getting such good odds?


On the turn I'm getting 23.7% equity and on the river I'm getting 23.2% equity and if we take the 2nd range I built for opp, I have 25.9% equity which would make it a call, right?

In the hand you linked to, it's an all-in situation, so there will be no further betting.

In the hand above, when you decide whether to call on the flop, you pretty much have to decide whether you want to play for all the remaining chips in the remaining effective stack or not. A way to see it, although it's a bit extreme of course, is to pretend that your opponent went all-in on the flop. If he had done that, would you still call?

The reason is that if you think that he is likely to continue betting on further streets, especially small bets, then you will be compelled to keep calling (as you did). That is why you have to make your commitment decision on the flop.

Note: this hand is a bit on the lower side, but it is generally considered that you are committed to the pot the once you have put 1/3rd of the chips in the effective starting stack in the pot. It doesn't mean that you can never fold after that (for example if an obvious draw completes), but it means that after you and your opp have put 1/3rd of the effective stack in the pot, there remains only one pot sized bet in the stacks. So that will often mean that the rest of the chips will go in.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by daviddem

In the hand above, when you decide whether to call on the flop, you pretty much have to decide whether you want to play for all the remaining chips in the remaining effective stack or not. A way to see it, although it's a bit extreme of course, is to pretend that your opponent went all-in on the flop. If he had done that, would you still call?

The reason is that if you think that he is likely to continue betting on further streets, especially small bets, then you will be compelled to keep calling (as you did). That is why you have to make your commitment decision on the flop.

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I never thought of it that way but that makes a lot of sense, thanks.

I'm guessing this has a lot to do with why chasing draws is so unprofitable? Maybe you're getting the right odds on the flop, but you have to consider missing the turn and then being faced with calling another bet. It reminds me of Effective Odds from The Theory of Poker(?)

It also seems like this is related to situations where you flop mid or top set and are bet into pretty large, or you're the bettor and get raised, but pretty sure you have the best hand, and just shove rather than call and play street by street b/c by the time the river comes your stack and opp's stack would be in the middle anyway.

You absolutely do not have to decide if you're stacking off when you call this flop.

A fish will extremely frequently define his range on the turn/river by betting less with air and marginal value hands that are "raising for info" etc on the flop and hammering the nuts. Making your decision for your stack before you get a ton more info on a later street is a retarded mistake unless you for some reason know he's going to bet turn and river large regardless of what he has; we have no reason at all to assume this.

Can't imagine ever folding this flop for this price since lesser pairs are easily possible as well as the odd bluff.

You get such a great price on the turn and river and he's also defined his hand as somewhat more likely to be marginal than the nuts given his shitty sizing. Folding at any point given these odds would be pretty horrible.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Carroters

You absolutely do not have to decide if you're stacking off when you call this flop.

A fish will extremely frequently define his range on the turn/river by betting less with air and marginal value hands that are "raising for info" etc on the flop and hammering the nuts. Making your decision for your stack before you get a ton more info on a later street is a retarded mistake unless you for some reason know he's going to bet turn and river large regardless of what he has; we have no reason at all to assume this.

Can't imagine ever folding this flop for this price since lesser pairs are easily possible as well as the odd bluff.

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^^^ You don't have to fold or shove on the flop as I said before if you don't think he will call a shove with worse.

However I maintain that when you call this flop, you have to be prepared to the possibility of having to get your stack in, because if opp wants to do that he can do it with two suck-in 40% pot sized bets on the turn and river, and you won't be able to refuse these odds. That's pretty much what happened.

Limp calling pre, min raising dry flop to set up stacks is a classic set line with a small PP, correct me if I am wrong. imo he is much less likely to limp/call QQ, JJ or even TT preflop. Not impossible if he is really bad, but you at least have to seriously discount these. Plus if he raised the flop with any of that, he is going to keep firing unless overcards show up on the turn or river. Limp/calling pre and raising the flop with A9 is also really bad.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Carroters

You get such a great price on the turn and river and he's also defined his hand as somewhat more likely to be marginal than the nuts given his shitty sizing. Folding at any point given these odds would be pretty horrible.

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I'll give you that his sizing is really crap, and if he did indeed have a set/boat, he miserably failed to get his stack in by the river. But on the flop, we don't know that yet.

In the end, if we are ahead, I see it as a marginal spot and I still don't mind folding until we get better reads.

Shoving the flop is terrible, he's only calling with sets and you fold out his weaker pairs. He's giving you incredible odds throughout the hand though and you need like, I dunno ~25% equity to call the river. But his range is so narrowed down to nut hands. He's a fish and he's betting like one, and fish don't bet like that without a very strong hand - unless of course you have solid notes on him. He's stringing you along and you took the bait. Folding the turn/river is NOT exploitable vs this type of player/at these stakes.