TPTK raised all-in on turn

Villain is 46/35/1 over 47 hands.
These stats probably don't mean alot, but
he's stolen from the button 2 of 4 times,
his AF by street is .7/1/inf,
his wtsd is 71% (5 of 7) and his w$sd is 20%.

There's not alot he can have on the turn. Call? Or Baluga fold?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

SB ($30.16)
Hero (BB) ($59.61)
UTG ($25)
MP ($20.88)
CO ($25.24)
Button ($25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif
3 folds, Button bets $0.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.60) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $0.75, Hero raises to $3, Button calls $2.25

Turn: ($7.60) 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $5, Button raises to $21.25 (All-In), Hero ?

It's 16.25 to win 33.85 basically 2:1.

My first instinct was to fold, but his wtsh and w$sh stats make me salivate. His range must be wide enough to make this call, he's got pretty much any suited jack or five, any connected jack or five, A5 AJ, most pocket pairs and a whole bunch of air. This guy clearly overvalues his hands and thinks he has more fold equity than he deserves. Fuck it, call him I would. I doubt very much he's got us beat more than two in three times.

pre-flop is interesting
as played folding is probably best here.
JJ+/KJ/QJs/AJ/A5/K5/35/45/56/57/AsKs/AsQs

At 25NL I've seen dozens of players who 3-bet 15+%, one guy has consistently 3-bet in the BB vs a steal 45% of the time over 300+ hands, and then they c-bet 100%. I think this aggression is changing alot of the classically loose-passive players into loose-spazzy players. Just because they're fish and bad at poker doesn't mean they're stupid people, they know all these aggro tags don't have it all the time, but rather than call off their stack, I see alot of them turn their decent small hands into bluffs. They probably don't know that's what they're doing, but I see it alot. Unfortunately for the rest of us, this means that we face more stack decisions with marginal hands where I think you can't automatically fold.

Vs a tag, this is an easy fold of course because they know I'm never bluffing ott and they just don't do this without a big hand. Against a spaz it's not so simple, esp when they make a tilty snap-shove like villain did here.

Against daven's range, we're 20%. But if we make all the low connector/gappers suited, take all QJ, and throw in a few more tard hands like AK and TT, which I think are def possible, then our equity goes up to 46%.

So IDK maybe this is always a fold but I am seeing alot of these marginal play-for-stack spots.

What do you guys think about the idea that increased tag aggression leads to more spazzy play on the part of the fish (or anyone for that matter)? And has this affected your hero call ranges any?

This prob a fold cause ur sample is smallish and there aren't too many hands you dominate in his range like TT. If he didn't buy in full I lean more to calling.

prolly it's just me being spazzy

Quote:

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Originally Posted by couriermike

I am seeing alot of these marginal play-for-stack spots.

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how best to exploit this? pre and post?