Am I crazy for wanting to fold here?

Villain is 30/21 AF 2, opens 17% UTG, 73% cbet and pretty high c/r freq on river. We don't have any recent history. Other guy is a passive whale, turn bet is 70 into 71.

When I overcall the turn I figure he would think my range is pretty nutted, like I won't have a low FD here given action.

$5/$10 No Limit Holdem
OnGame
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($1,084)
CO ($1,226.55)
Alexos ($1,318)
SB ($990)
BB ($694.60)

Pre-Flop: ($15, 5 players) Alexos is BTN :6h: :6c:
UTG raises to $22, 1 fold, Alexos calls $22, 1 fold, BB calls $12

Flop: :9s: :ah: :9d: ($71, 3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Alexos checks

Turn: :6d: ($71, 3 players)
BB bets $70, UTG calls $70, Alexos calls $70

River: :2d: ($281, 3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Alexos bets $215, BB folds, UTG goes all-in $992, $777 to Alexos ($1011)?

Call, extreemly hard for you to have a boat here and seems unlikely for him to slowplay flop. I woulnd't discountbig diamonds for that reason imo.

Yah I really wouldn't be surprised to see some diamonds here sometimes. It looks like you have best a flush, so wouldn't put it past any high flushes to c/r here.

you re not crazy but i think it s a close call since he can definitely play KQdd this way for value and if he s decent can turn AK with Kd into a bluff so i d call pretty quickly and just whince a bit if i saw quads or top boat

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Originally Posted by Genitruc

you re not crazy but i think it s a close call since he can definitely play KQdd this way for value and if he s decent can turn AK with Kd into a bluff so i d call pretty quickly and just whince a bit if i saw quads or top boat

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nut flush is possible on this board too.

Does he really c/shove here with the nut flush? My range contains very little lower FDs since I'd just prob fold turn with those given action, and it does contain a few slowplays.

Are you guys saying you'd c/r KQdd here for value or nutflush, because you expect to be good 60% of the time when called? I really think that's too thin on this board.

I count 10 combos of A9,AA,99. I need to be good here like 40% or something to call, so he needs to have quite a few nut flushes here that decide to value c/shove for me to call.

I'm more thinking.. what does he think you have here?

He'd prob expect you to bet most 9x on the flop. Though that's kind of irrelevant since I don't think he's trying to stack your 9x.

you might check back A9 sometimes and you probably only have suited A9 anyhow. So if his most likely river jam is Axdd. That means you can only have Ac9c.

On the turn call you can only have 66 for boats, 3 combos. Some % of the time you might even bet the flop which will minimize those combos even more, but lets say 3.

So 4 total combos of boats he should be worried about if he has Axdd. You can have 78dd, T8dd, JTdd, QJdd, KJdd, KQdd. I guess he would need you to call most of your flushes for his shove to be good. So perhaps its closer than we all think.

hmmm

Don't fold but it's close. You will see AA/99/A9s sometimes, but you only need to be ahead ~36% of the time. I think it's concievable he'd play a high flush this way. I think we can expect a lot of different lines on earlier streets from AA/99/A9s but I'd expect a high flush to get to the river this way.

I'd raise the turn though.

Wow so close, I like your turn call, there's just so much value in keeping both of them in the hand to turn spew if one of them makes a flush and if they're even half decent they're folding pretty much all worse to a raise. Calling here unfortunately depends entirely on how tilted/clearheaded you are at this point in the session so strategy really goes out the window.

Passive whale seems to like his hand, so raising the turn is probably a good idea. With that same logic I think it's pretty absurd to think that villain would c/r river with Axdd and I def don't think he would rep that he slowplayed the flop (with a whale in the pot), as a bluff. So yeah I hope you folded.

I snapfolded

i think the fold is good, actually

Weird hand, what makes you think he doesn't have Axdd?

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Originally Posted by Numbr2intheWorld

Weird hand, what makes you think he doesn't have Axdd?

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Well b/c of :
1) likelyhood of me having a boat here
2) me not calling a pot sized turn bet with worse than the NFD (sure he might not know that)
3) Me not calling a shove here with worse than a boat.

I'd call if I was getting like 3:1.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Alexos

Well b/c of :
1) likelyhood of me having a boat here
2) me not calling a pot sized turn bet with worse than the NFD (sure he might not know that)
3) Me not calling a shove here with worse than a boat.

I'd call if I was getting like 3:1.

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Man I don't think any of your points are clear to him, unless he's a great player. A good player thinks you have a flush on the river 99% of the time imo.

Also, I think some players may be afraid to not raise a nut flush here for fear of being embarassed.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Alexos

2) me not calling a pot sized turn bet with worse than the NFD (sure he might not know that)

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Well surely you're calling with at least 78dd and probably even 57dd and T8dd. All of those could be in your range because UTG made it 2.2x and BB is a whale. No reason to think that you're drawing dead with this action and we're getting a good price with good IO.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Alexos

Well b/c of :
1) likelyhood of me having a boat here

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My main reason for wanting to call here is because I think your point 1) is way off. I'd imagine that if anything most regs would assign you about 5% likelihood of having a boat here.

meh changed my mind i think its a call but its close. im such a nit in these spots where i think a bluff is suicidal (or a thin value raise) but ppl play so much different than i expect that i think calling with absolute hand strength of nf+ is correct