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5NL FR KK on AKQ flop
Only 22 hands on villain but he seems to have loose-aggressive tendencies, to say the least: 35/26/2.0AF/40%AggFreq
The bet on the flop is too small I think, I was hoping to induce a raise by betting small, with the flop hitting everybody's range. Obviously this cunning plan miserably failed.
The bet on the turn I think is also too small because it leaves a full PSB for the river. Would have been better to size it to have 2/3 to 3/4 PSB left on the river. On the spot I was more thinking about not folding his weak two pairs and top pair hands.
River: the T is a real bad card because of all the J's in his range. I see him getting to the river with two pairs or pair+gutshot hands {JJ,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,ATo+,KJo+,QJo,JTo}, although this may be optimistic because I think he would have raised a lot of the two pair hands on the flop or the turn. Against this range, I have 34.3% equity. What's better? check, blocking bet?
No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
saw flop
MP1 ($1.66)
MP2 ($4.93)
MP3 ($8.12)
CO ($3.50)
Button ($5.51)
Hero (SB) ($5)
BB ($4.87)
UTG ($2.71)
UTG+1 ($5.07)
Preflop: Hero is SB with K:club:, K:spade:
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.05, 2 folds, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, Hero bets $0.23, BB calls $0.20, MP1 calls $0.20, 1 fold
Flop: ($0.80) K:diamond:, A:club:, Q:spade: (3 players)
Hero bets $0.40, BB calls $0.40, 1 fold
Turn: ($1.60) 8:heart: (2 players)
Hero bets $1, BB calls $1
River: ($3.60) 10:diamond: (2 players)
Hero?
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Your flop bet size is very bad and is the source of your problems in this hand. I'm pointing this out because it's easy to think it's only a small mistake.
As played, it's hard to know what's best since small changes in his ranges change your EV greatly.
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If he's aggro, then a blocking bet wont do much imo. If he has a J he's raising, and a blocking bets just makes you less money vs hands you already beat (as opposed to a straight vbet).
Pre: Consider betting more like $.30 since you are oop and you have a station in the BB.
On flop, if he's that aggro he'll raise if he gets a decent piece.
I dont see the point in trying to be tricky. This is a flop that either hits them or it doesnt (Pairs, sd's, 2pair etc). Just bet! 3/4 is great. They will pay to hit their draw.
By then another 3/4 bet on turn prob has you comitted, or even consider shoving the turn with the amount that could have been in there.
Thats my thought
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I like the idea of betting small to induce against a lag/maniac, but there's a couple problems with that here. That's just too few hands to know what he's like, and, even tho his preflop stats are good for that move, his AF is a little low. Alot of guys play lag pre and tag post.
OTR, probably I would c/c, he could turn a worse hand into a bluff, but I'm never folding the set bvb for a psb, even on a 4-str8 board. If he has the J, nh.
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pre i would have made a 6bb raise, pot the flop or at least 0,6$ and turn pot bet.... now if you intend to call a river bet, better bet first min 2/3 pot, if not, c/f... this how i would play it.