K set on flush board

opp is 20/15/39 ..... my first hand with him, havent seen him at showdown yet.


pre flop i put him on 22-QQ( he'd problably reraise AA), AJs+, AQo+, Axs

flop i gave the same range

turn, here only Ahxh beats me, and those are 9 combos, but after he called flop bet i give him also 4 QQ, 4 JJ, 3 1010, 3 55, 3 33. with this range i have
more combos i beat then the ones that beat me.... so i decide to bet.

is ok up to here?


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

BB ($2.23)
Hero (UTG) ($2)
UTG+1 ($2.24)
MP1 ($2.74)
MP2 ($4.20)
CO ($0.75)
Button ($3.14)
SB ($1.52)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/kc.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/ks.gif
Hero bets $0.10, UTG+1 calls $0.10, 6 folds

Flop: ($0.23) http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/3h.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/th.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/5s.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $0.22, UTG+1 calls $0.22

Turn: ($0.67) http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/kh.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $0.50, UTG+1 calls $0.50

River: ($1.67) http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/7c.gif (2 players)


hero?

Fist pumps and shoves. Played fine.

Using your range and assuming he continues with all of his flop range

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 06.897% 06.90% 00.00% 2 0.00 { TT+, 55, 33, AhQh, AhJh }
Hand 1: 93.103% 93.10% 00.00% 27 0.00 { KcKs }

EDIT: "..... my first hand with him, havent seen him at showdown yet." Im inferring that you mean "this session". What is your sample size? Your range may be a bit narrow. I have started to look up known starting hands/position on villains at the beginning of a session.

Having said that, if we give him every AhXh combo you are still a 3:1 monster.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.000% 25.00% 00.00% 9 0.00 { TT+, 55, 33, AhQh, AhJh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah2h }
Hand 1: 75.000% 75.00% 00.00% 27 0.00 { KcKs }

forgot to say, his stats 20/15/39 are over 20 hands, not much, so in his range i put any Axhh. a lot of 2 nl players call 5 bb raises UTG with Axs. so my equity will be smaller but not under 55%, because if i put Axhh in his range, i could also put him on flop call on any AQs+ or AQo+

Im guessing you shoved and he snap called with the flush. Meh, unlucky. +EV play.

EDIT: Sick if he showed 64o lol.

Line seems great to me up to turn.

I'd be tempted to check this over at the river. If we shove, his calling range will be reasonably tight, like 77 I guess could have tagged along, and certainly KT if he can have it, but unless he's been slow playing a set on this board (doubt it) I can't see his calling range to a shove is wide enough. There aren't that many hands we beat that can call a shove compared to hands we lose to.

Having said that, I'm not folding. He might call two overs or a gutshot at the flop, so it's not outrageous to think he can have the lone Ah. He might bet this at the river as he has no showdown value. Also, any set will probably bet for value if we check, I reckon we only lose value against KT and he has that less than 1% of the time.

Unless we think he can call a shove with a pair or he can have a set then I can't see shoving the river is +ev. Calling a shove might be though.

river range Ah2h-AhQh, TT, JJ, QQ, 33, 64, 55, KT, 53, K5, QJhh, AhKx, Ah5x
river calling range - take out the Ah5x

Count the combos manually, good practise. Post here what you got from it. If you bet it's obviously a shove.

Go All in not close.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by meeloche

Go All in not close.

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this

Quote:

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Originally Posted by daven

river range Ah2h-AhQh, TT, JJ, QQ, 33, 64, 55, KT, 53, K5, QJhh, AhKx, Ah5x
river calling range - take out the Ah5x

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Villain is 20/15. He's calling K5, 53 and 64 to an UTG raise while sat in UTG+1 like never. He's an idiot if he's flat calling a flopped set. He might call QQ and JJ to a river shove, but again I'm expecting these hands to raise the flop much more often than they call.

Really, I think our set is in bad shape to be honest, shoving this river just means he can't bluff with his crap. He hasn't got a set.

after calling turn call, i can put him on Ahxh and set 3,5,10

so i have 8 flush combos and 9 set combos.... that makes it 50/50, but i donk think he will call a shove with set, just flush.... so i am kind of beat... i dont think a shove is EV+.... maybe a c/f is better here but i am not sure, he could bluff if i check..... that is why i posted hand, i am c/f here and i am not sure if its the way to do it.

He'll call a shove with a set alright, it's just he's likely to raise such a hand at the flop.

Don't fold.